My primary sign that spring has sprung is the beginning of the Keeneland meet. This also marks the return of one of my favorite wagers, the Turf Pick 3. While some other circuits have tried to replicate this model, the original version stands out due to the consistency of full fields and competitive races. While this space will just be covering this wager, check out the rest of the great content the In the Money Media team is cooking up for this boutique meet. Note that our ticket cost is high, but will get cut down significantly if one or both of the also-eligibles I like doesn’t draw in. Good Luck!
Selections
- Leg 1 (R5): 11-13-7-2
- Leg 2 (R8): 6-1-10-12
- Leg 3 (R10): 1-13-7-2
Leg 1 (3:08pm): Keeneland Race 5 – Maiden Special Wt 100k Purse
An oversubscribed field goes an extended route distance as these fillies all try to break through for their first win. Spinning Class (#2) is likely to vie for favoritism as she goes out for a popular barn in Shug McGaughhey. She’s run servicable races thus far in her career and certainly has the pedigree to turn out to be a good one out of G3W My Impression, but I prefer others. Everything Bugs Me (#7) is likely to lead them a long way as she returns off the layoff and switches to the underrated Matejka barn. The field she finished second in her debut has proven to be a decent one, I just worry a little bit about this 9.5f distance. My top pick is Swans Cove (#11) who I believe has a big step forward in her as she’s second time out for Bill Mott. She took some money to go off 4-1 in her debut, but I don’t think the sharp mile at Gulfstream was conducive to her characteristics. I see her relishing this added ground as she appears to be more of a grinding type. Mott has done better with debut runners these last few years, but that really hasn’t been the case with turf routers which is another reason why I think this daughter of G1W Cocoa Beach (Chi) is likely to move up. Keep an eye out on the scratches/changes as Queens Fable (Ire) (#13) would be very dangerous if she draws in. She burned a ton of money in each of her first two starts, but Chad Brown’s operation has always treated the pre-Keeneland portion of the year as “pre-season” so I wouldn’t be surprised if this daughter of Frankel out of G3W/G1P mare Rymska (Fr) lives up to the billing this afternoon.
Leg 2 (4:44pm): Keeneland Race 8 – G3-Transylvania Stakes 400k Purse
It appears to be a very competitive rendition of the Transylvania as evidenced by the fact no runner is shorter than 4-1 on Nick Tammaro’s morning line. I do believe the ML favorite is formidable and will be central to my plays. First World War (#6) showed a ton of talent over this course and distance last year in the G2-Bourbon to hang around at the end despite being near a pace that fell apart. After some dalliance with racing on dirt, Walsh switched him back to his preferred surface and he was able to win a G3 down at Gulfstream. I think he’s likely to be able to get that one-over stalking trip that suits his attributes. I’m especially willing to lean on a favorite in a race where I want no part of the second and third choices. Sure, Appleby/Godolphin seem like always dominate when they bring over a foreign invader, but with Musical Act (Ire) (#8) it feels like an opportunity to buck that trend as he’s likely to be an underlay relative to his talent. I have similar feelings about Guy Named Joe (#2) who has run well in California, but I see the east coast contingent as a stronger group. The backups I’d want to use in this race include Oscar’s World (#1) who drew well and has a ton of upside for a dangerous barn in Brian Lynch. I’d also want Can Group (#10) and Cugino (#12) onside as the former was the winner of that aforementioned G2-Bourbon albeit with a setup and the latter could really capitalize if a fast pace develops as he’s been compromised by the opposite situation more than once in his career.
Leg 3 (5:48pm): Keeneland Race 10 – Maiden Special Wt 100k Purse
The finale is also a 9.5f MSW for fillies and mares on the turf meaning there was enough entries for split divisions with both having oversubscribed fields. You gotta love Keeneland racing. I feel similarly about the two fillies likely to take the bulk of the wagering that being Hidden Presence (#2) and Mizoula (Ire) (#7). The both go out for top connections and are too logical to leave completely off my tickets, but I don’t need either as my top pick. Hidden Presence is a little pace dependent, but looks like she’ll get enough to run at while Mizoula is tactical, but likely to be an underlay with Irad Ortiz on board. I like Moonlight Gambler (#1) and made her my top selection. She ran a race over this course and distance as a 2YO that’s as fast as anyone in the race. I’m willing to view the synthetic try as a prep race as the Colebrook barn routinely points to this Keeneland meet. If she’s able to show routine improvement from 2 to 3 and build off her race here last fall, she’s a steal at anything near the 8-1 ML. Tonalite (#4) exits the same Keeneland fall race as my top pick, but does so without a prep and this barn has poor numbers off the layoff. Lucky Speech (#5) could be dangerous as her last race came back almost unbelievably fast, but if it’s real it makes her a player. Once again, look out for an also-eligible with it being Mont Saint Michel (Fr) (#13) this time. She has the opportunity to move forward second time out after a wide journey in her Gulfstream debut and I never discount anything Brendan Walsh sends out.
