Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 4/12/26 – By Eric Solomon

Five of the nine races on the Sunday card are scheduled to be run over the turf course. All five races drew full cards and are highly competitive events. The featured race is the Grade 3 Giant’s Causeway Presented by Keeneland Select. First post for this nine race program is set for 1:00 (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Three year old fillies will go one mile on the turf in this maiden special weight contest. This race oversubscribed and was split into two divisions. These races will bookend the Early Pick-5 wager this afternoon. I see the opener as a more wide race than the 5th race. I think Bourbon Story (#3) is a live longshot in this race for Robert Hess. She’s been on the shelf since a game 4th place finish in a one mile turf race at Del Mar in September. She drew the outside post and had a wide journey that day. Losing that kind of ground is definitely more costly at Del Mar than some other tracks, but she still put forth a solid effort at long odds in that race. The winner that day, Brave Deb, came back to win the Surfer Girl Stakes in her next start at Santa Anita. While the Beyer Figure came back light from that race, the Equibase figure suggests that effort was stronger than it looked. This barn has strong numbers off the layoff and she drilled a snappy five furlong workout over the main track here last week. I think she’s one of the more interesting longshot on this card. Brendan Walsh continues to have live runners at Keeneland, despite a rough start to this meet. While he’s still looking to visit the Winner’s Circle for the first time here in 2026, his horses are running well as more than half of them have finished in the money. He sends out Use Me (#8) in this race after a strong debut at Gulfstream. She broke well but settled in last behind a slow pace for the 7 ½ furlong distance. She was blocked for a while, but showed some courage when splitting horses and bursting through a seam. She showed a nice turn of foot when accelerating and making a run at the winner. There’s plenty to like about this filly and I’d suspect that she won’t be a maiden for long. Chad Brown was another trainer that was having a tough time of things, but things are starting to look up for him after Zulu Kingdom scored in the Makers Mark Mile. He sends out Isadora Duncan (#5) for her first start as a three year old. She had outside posts for her first two starts as a two year old. Neither trip for her was great, but there was potential there. Brown was the trainer of her multiple graded stakes winning dam and he also trains her stakes winning full sister, Opulent Restraint. I’m expecting a better effort from her in this spot as well. 

Race 2:

Only six runners are entered in this N1X allowance sprint for three year olds and up. I think it’s going to take a big effort to take down Senior Officer (#2) here. He debuted in the fall of 2024 and he ran two strong races at Churchill before going to the sidelines for about 18 months. He came back at Oaklawn and showed that he is still fast when running a big race to be second to Zero Sugar, a horse that was in great form coming into that race. I think his stalking style fits well with this field and it has been playing well over this course this week. Sargent Sully (#4) is likely the one he;s going to have to run down late. He came back after nearly a year on the bench and he was a gate to wire winner in a solid time. Fair Grounds horses are doing well at this meet, especially on the dirt, so the form from those big figure races are holding up well. While this isn’t a big field, this is definitely a fair test for a horse facing winners for the first time. 

Race 3:

Older fillies and mares will go 1 ⅛ miles over the turf course in this N1X allowance race. I think this is a great spot for Sy B (#4) for Cherie DeVaux. This mare thrives when going longer distances and I think this nine furlong trip will suit her well. She showed a lot of promise as a three year old, breaking her maiden in a 1 3/16 mile race here in April of 2024. She came back to run well in the Grade 2 Wonder Again Stakes before struggling in the Belmont Oaks. She ended her season with a decent third place in an 11 furlong race at the Spa. She only ran twice last year, running well to be third in both efforts. She came back at the Fair Grounds last time out and didn’t get a great pace setup. She settled for third once again, going a little shorter than she prefers. She’s stretching out for her second try off the layoff and I think she finds a field where she can excel. I’ll back up with Competitive Market (#7), who should be the favorite for Chad Brown in this race. She’s another horse that has had some breaks in her running lines. She was a game second when getting a wide trip as the favorite in her last start at Monmouth in the summer. She’s been right there in all three starts, and there’s no reason to think that she won’t be right there at the end. I trust the top pick more at the distance and having the race off the bench, but she’s the clear alternative.

Race 4:

Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles over the main track in this $30K maiden claiming race. I’m looking for another longshot on top, and I’ll try Tregetour (#2) getting on the dirt for the first time off the Ben Colebrook claim. While his two year olds have been a little flat, his other runners have been sharp at this meet. Turfway runners have been winning several of the claiming races on the dirt this week and the pedigree is there for this son of Good Magic to improve here/ His original owners paid $275K for him and while that didn’t work out, he was claimed for $30K and gelded since his last start. I think he’s in a spot to run a better race in this spot. Pass and Go (#7) debuted in a $32K maiden claimer at Tampa last month. He put forth a solid effort to finish second when debuting at seven furlongs. I think this is a good spot to try two turns for the first time. This barn does well with second time starters and horses stretching out to route races.The price might be a little shorter than I’d prefer, but I think he’s definitely a player. Al Amjaad (#11) makes his third start of his career in this spot. He debuted in a maiden special weight race at Turfway. The winner of that race, Mendels Mate, came back here to run a big race on the turf yesterday to just miss. He dropped in for a tag and ran well despite breaking a bit slow., The outside draw in this race is less than ideal, but this feels like a spot where he can move forward. 

Race 5:

The second division of the maiden special weight for three year old fillies is still competitive, but I think there is a horse that stands out a bit. Munnings Talks (#8) was the even money favorite at this level in her last start. She was forced to steady slightly when going into the first turn. She was buried behind runners, but was able to shift out and make a bold bid. However, the race winner, East Jabip, was able to fend her off. That filly was afforded an easy early lead and led every step of the way. She came back to win a first level allowance on this course earlier this week. I think her effort was strong and she’s a candidate to improve in this spot with a better trip.  Empress New Groove (#12) hit the front in her last start at Gulfstream, only to get tired in the later stages. Her debut effort on this course was her best career race, so despite the wide draw, I think we’ll see a better showing from her in this race today. How About Now (#2) is another runner that is worth considering in this race. She’s coming out of a different maiden special weight race at Gulfstream where she finished 4th. The third place finisher in that race came back to win a maiden race here last week. The second place finisher, Rules and Regs, runs in the opener, which I do think is a bit of a deeper heat. While I preferred others in that race, if she runs well, I think that’s a good reason to consider upgrading this Not This Time filly. 

Race 6: 

The Late Pick-4 begins with an optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/8 miles over the main track. Landed (#2) figures to get a fairly easy lead in this spot, but the question will be whether or not she can keep going when competing at this level. I don’t love her as the morning line favorite at 7-5, but at closer to 3-1, I think she’s more interesting. She has scored at this distance when beating fellow New York Breds at Saratoga in the Fleet Indian Stakes over the summer of 2024. There have been gaps in her running lines since then, as is common with Wesley Ward runners. She’s worth playing in this spot just because of the pace scenario, but I’m interested in using Pahoehoe d’Oro (#4) on top while moving up in class to the N2X level. While both of her wins have come over off tracks, she can handle a fast course. She stretched out to two turns for the first time in her last start at Oaklawn where she beat a nice field. Both Pronghorn and Untamed Moment came back to win allowance races after losing to her that day. She’s bred to handle longer distances so I think she’s the one that will be the biggest threat to the favorite in the stretch of this race. 

Race 7, The Grade 3 Giant’s Causeway Stakes Presented by Keeneland Select:

The featured race this afternoon is a 5 ½ furlong dash for fillies and mares. 16 runners were entered, but there’s a maximum of 12 starters, leaving some talented runners stuck on the AE list. I’m hopeful that we’ll see a solid effort from Time to Dazzle (#11) in this race. I’m often hesitant to bet North American horses in their first start back from a Middle East trip.Two months ago, this one was competing in Saudi Arabia where she finished 4th in a 6 ¾ furlong sprint against the boys. That was her first start this year and her first start since winning the Grade 3 Franklin Stakes at this distance on this course back in October. She’s had a pair of sharp workouts over at Churchill in preparation for her return to the races. I’ll side with her in this spot. Creed’s Gold (#12) was cross-entered in a handicap yesterday at Gulfstream, but she defected from that spot, presumably in favor of racing here. While she’ has a chance in this race, I think her remaining in this spot is not great news for Shining Star (#13), who is the first one to draw in off the AE list. If she did get into the race, she would be the morning line favorite. Since getting on the turf, this one has been an absolute freak. She’s not only winning these races, she’s winning them by big margins, especially when considering that her three wins are in races going less than six furlongs. She’s won her three turf starts by a combined total of nearly 17 lengths, putting up a triple digit Beyer Figure when winning the Mardi Gras Stakes in her last start. This race is better with her in it, and considering how some of the recent stakes races here have scratched down, there’s still a solid chance she could get into the gate here. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Saturday Flirt (#10) for Wesley Ward. She’s lightly raced, but she’s never lost a race in North America. Her only career defeat came overseas at Royal Ascot in the Grade 2 Norfolk Stakes where she faced the boys. She’s going to need to up her game a little bit, but she has a nice turn of foot. She’s making her four year old debut this afternoon, so there’s reason to believe that she could be better than she was at Kentucky Downs. 

Race 8: 

Nine three year olds will go seven furlongs in this maiden special weight contest. It’s hard to poke holes in the form of Civil Liberty (#8) in this race. He’s Grade 1 placed, finishing third to Brant in the Del Mar Futurity this past summer. The American Pharoah Stakes showed that he might be best suited for one turn races. He took some time off and came back in a maiden special weight at Santa Anita where he narrowly was defeated by Crude Velocity for Bob Baffert. That one came back to dominate N1X company on Santa Anita Derby Day last week. While shipping across the country for the first time is always a bit of a question mark, the horses that he’s faced are not. Iconoclast (#2) is an interesting first time starter in this race. He might be running into a buzzsaw with the California invader in this race, but he’s a well-bred and well-meant runner here. He’s been doing things well in the mornings for Cherie DeVaux. The dam was a graded stakes winning sprinter, who broke her maiden here at Keeneland when the course was a synthetic main track. Most of her runners have been better on the turf, but in the mornings, she has been moving over the dirt course well. Beijing (#3) is another backup type in this race He debuted at Colonial for William Walden where he finished second that day. The winner was an experienced Brad Cox runner that got a flyer from the gate and never looked back in that four horse field. Despite only facing three rivals, I do feel that race was educational for him. While it might be asking a lot today, I don’t think he’ll need many more races to break his maiden.

Race 9:

We’ll close out the week with a N2X allowance race for older horses going one mile over the turf course. Both Pitkin (#9) and Tenacious Leader (#10) were considered for the Makers Mark Mile here on Friday and both runners defected in favor of this spot. Both of these horses competed in different races on the Fountain of Youth undercard at the end of February at Gulfstream. Tenacious Leader was making his first start of the year in that race after narrowly missing in the Grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes on this course back in October. He won on this course on Opening Weekend of that same meet, clearing the first level allowance condition. He was a little flat in his return, but he was up against a good bunch that day. I think he can improve from that effort, which in my mind, gives him a narrow edge over his fellow Florida shipper. Pitkin is a perfect 2-2 in his two turf tries, breaking his maiden two back in his turf debut after four losses on the dirt. He followed up that effort with a score in allowance company in his most recent start. This will be another class test, but he’s beaten good horses that have been next out winners. Capitol Hill (#5) is also worth including in this race. Bill Mott brings him back to the races for the first time since a first level allowance score at Belmont at the Big A in November. He was second in some stakes for three year olds last season so the talent is there. While he might need this one, I do think he’ll make a good showing for himself. 

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.