Keeneland Full Card Analysis – Tuesday, 4/8/25 – By Eric Solomon

We had to wait a few extra days, but I’d venture to say that this special Tuesday card will be the most unique running of the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes since the July 2020 COVID meet. While the weather forecast is chilly, it should be sunny and dry. There are 11 races on the card today, with four excellent stakes supporting the signature race of the meet. First post is set for 1:00 PM (ET). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

This excellent card begins with a maiden special weight contest going seven furlongs. I’m not going to try to beat Camp Hale (#2) in this spot. He has four starts, and has run well in each one of them. He just missed on debut here in the fall. He was second in his next two starts when he was beaten by Guns Loaded and Grande. Guns Loaded won the Mucho Macho Man Stakes in his next start and Grande cleared the N1X condition and was second on Saturday in the Wood Memorial. The connections took their shot with him in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa in his last start. He didn’t embarrass himself finishing 4th, only a little more than two lengths behind Owen Almighty, who is a contender in the Toyota Blue Grass later on today. I like the cutback in distance to seven furlongs for this race because I think it gives him a stamina edge over some of the lightly raced runners in this field. This feels like the spot where this Mo Town colt is going to graduate. I’ll use Invictus (#8) as the backup in this spot. He’s the first foal from the Grade 1 winning mare, Serengeti Empress. He ran into Chancer McPatrick, another contender in today’s feature, at Saratoga when debuting. He fell apart late, finishing seventh that day. This colt, who cost $1,200,000 at the Keeneland September Sale in 2023, went to the sidelines and has been picking up the pace in the mornings for Brad Cox. Getting Lasix may be something that serves him well.  

Race 2:

The first race of the day scheduled for the turf is a 1 ⅛ miles maiden special weight contest for three year olds. While I think the two shorter prices on the morning line are going to be tough, I’m going to take a chance with Bermuda Triangle (#11) as the top pick. Mike Smith is in town to ride and he’s going to pick up the mount on this third time starter, shipping here from Turfway. His first two starts over the Tapeta there were respectable, but not spectacular. He showed improvement in his second start, finishing second. He’s sired by Justify out of a mare who broke her maiden on this course and at this distance in her third career start. She also ran well here the following year when catching a soft course in a 12 furlong marathon. He strikes me a horse that could move forward on a course that is less than firm. Tomasello (#1) ships here from Gulfstream after a near miss in a 7 ½ furlong maiden special weight race at the end of February. That was his first try on the turf after two decent tries on synthetic. He has tactical speed to put himself into a good spot amidst this large group. After pairing his last two Beyer figures in his first two races at two turns, I also see him as a horse that is eligible to improve in this spot. Fateful Lightning (#9) is the morning line favorite, and his odds could be lower than his 3-1 morning line if Cox starts hot at this meet. Looking at the runners that he’s sending out on Sunday and Monday, it’s not out of the question to think that he’s going into this card with four or winners after the first two days of racing. This Tapit colt was largely ignored by the betting public when making his debut at Gulfstream in a maiden special weight race there last month. He came with a strong five wide bid to narrowly miss at the end. Cox’s horses tend to improve in their second career starts, and if that’s the case, he’s going to be right in the thick of things here. Saez rode him last out in Florida and he retains the mount today.

Race 3:

Three year olds continue to be highlighted on this card, this time with an optional $125K claiming/N1X allowance race at six furlongs. Gunmetal (#9) was entered in the Lafayette Stakes, which was scheduled for opening day, but was moved to Monday. Perhaps after seeing the depth of that field or not loving the rail draw in that race, Cox opted to cross-enter this colt in this allowance race. I have some mixed feelings about this decision. He was awesome when breaking his maiden on debut at the Fair Grounds in December. He was bet down to the 9-10 favorite in the Swale Stakes, where he was very keen while battling with some rivals to set a quick tempo. He faded late, finishing nine lengths behind Gate to Wire, who is a horse he’d have to deal with in the stakes race on Monday. While this is an easier spot, there’s going to be a lot of speed for him to deal with here. He’s also going to have to contend with the runner-up in the Grade 1 Champagne, Tip Top Thomas (#7), who is making his first start as a three year old today. Assuming he’s racing here, I see a lot of speed signed on, which  could set the table for Retribution (#2), who was a very smooth debut winner for Cherie DeVaux at the Fair Grounds on the Risen Star undercard in February. He stalked the pace and came with a strong four wide bid to pull away late that day. He should be more fit for this race and he worked very nicely over this course last week. Horses sired by Vekoma are winning all over the place. His runners at Keeneland are 5-9 (56%) on the dirt and 4-7 (57%) in sprint races. I see Gunmetal as more of a backup in this race. He’s going to take a lot of money at the windows if he’s running in this spot, but that’s based on connections and a monster Beyer figure. Even though his second try came in a stakes race, I didn’t love the effort. While I respect the conservative approach and I know that a $120K allowance race is nothing to sneeze at, I still don’t think it exudes confidence that he’s even cross-entered here. Tip Top Thomas is also going to be a backup for me in this race. He was a sharp debut winner in a maiden allowance on the Travers undercard this summer at the Spa. He came back to validate that effort with a strong performance in the Champagne where he was beaten by Chancer McPatrick. Pletcher is very sharp off the bench, but I do worry he’s going to be a little keen in this spot, especially with a runner like Gunmetal to his outside. He clearly has some quality though, so it;s hard to be too dismissive of him. 

Race 4:

The $3 All-Turf Pick-3 begins with a stakes quality N3X allowance race going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. 15 runners are entered, but there’s a maximum of only 12 starters for this one. This race starts with Northern Invader (#12), who is the 2-1 morning line favorite. There’s a lot to like with this one, including his near miss in Grade 3 Tampa Bay Stakes last out and his win over this course on a good course last spring. However, he’s making his second start since July and he’s coming off a race where he ran a career top Beyer Speed Figure. He’s been caught late in both of his turf races at this distance, and between the potential condition of the turf course and the wide draw, I think he’s vulnerable. I see him more of a deeper saver in this race and a horse to use underneath in the vertical exotics. I think Timeout (#5) is an interesting prospect in this race. As a three year old, he showed ability to compete on the dirt, however, I thought he looked very comfortable when getting on the turf for the first time at Tampa in his last start. The dam was a multiple Grade 3 winner on the lawn and she earned a Grade 1 place in the Just a Game going a mile on the turf in 2018. Her first two runners to compete didn’t have the same affinity for the grass as she did, but neither of those runners came close to the quality of this Curlin colt. Mike Smith rides for his try on the turf today. Irish Aces (#1) is a consistent runner that always shows up, even if he doesn’t get his picture taken. Northern Invader was a nose better than him at Tampa two back and he came within a ½ length of Fort Washington in a wild finish in the Canadian Turf at Gulfstream in his last start. There is a bit of a break in graded races on the turf between now and May, so I don’t hate the drop in class. Ben Curtis is getting some big chances early on at this meet to prove he can compete with the top jockeys in the U.S., so I definitely think the ride he gives this Mshawish gelding is worth paying attention to. On deeper tickets, I’m interested to see what effort West Hollywood (#2) is going to turn in for his first start as a four year old. I thought his win in the Grade 3 Saranac was sensational last summer. He didn’t face the deepest field, but he was last behind a slow pace and he exploded to win that race by over five lengths. He’s been sidelined since the end of August and this is not the easiest spot to make his first start of the year. I think he might be overbet, but I do think he has the potential of being a very nice four year old turf horse this season. 

Race 5:

The Late Pick-5 ends with a maiden special weight race for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Keep in mind that the Pick-6 starts with this race today, so that the last leg of that sequence will be the Toyota Blue Grass. As expected at Keeneland, this is a strong race, but I think Ian Wilkes, who could be in line to have a big day, has a horse that is going to be very tough to beat in this race. Pitkin (#4) has two strong starts at Gulfstream to start his career. He was away slow on debut, but was still moving late when he finished second to Jimmy’s Dailys. He came back 21 days later to race in a one mile allowance race where he was closer to the front end, but second best behind Gosger. Those two put a good amount of ground between the third place finisher in that race, and every runner that he beat in that race, has come back to run a better race in their next starts, with a pair of runners breaking their maidens in maiden special weight company on the turf. I think the added distance should work to his benefit. Horses sired by Nyquist have won 8 of 29 starts in dirt routes here (28%) on this oval. Shangrala Road (#2) is second time starter for Brad Cox stretching out to a route. This is always a strong angle with Cox’s runners (26% winning percentage over the last five years). He ran into Disruptor, who ran a big race that day, on debut. He has a good post for the race that he wants to run and he should be the main threat to the favorite in this one. Activity (#3) is a Into Mischief colt that was not great on debut. The dam has foaled three graded stakes winners in dirt routes (Catalina Cruiser, Royal Flag, and Eagle), so there’s reason to believe that he could improve with added distance. In fairness, those three runners were sharper in their debuts, so the 20-1 morning line figure does feel fair. Shug McGaughey is a trainer whose runners do improve with additional races and like many trainers, he typically targets this meet for several of the runners in his barn.

Race 6, The Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes, Presented by Japan Racing Association:

The parade of stakes races on this fantastic card begins with a one mile test for three year old fillies on the turf. The All-Stakes Pick-5 begins with this race today, which will replace the Late Pick-5. For the third time in their careers, Nitrogen (#1) and Vixen (#2) will continue their rivalry. What’s interesting though, is that they are owned and trained by the same entities. Mark Casse trains both and DJ Stables LLC is an owner of both (although Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners are named as a co-owner of Vixen). Vixen was about a ½ length better than her stablemate in the Natalma at this distance when going one turn, but Nitrogen was two lengths better than her in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Fillies when going two turns. They both have a pair of stakes wins in Florida since that and for both of them, one of those races was a Grade 3 event. Casse has been smart with how he’s been able to keep these fillies separated, but the other turf options at this moment are slim, so it makes sense that they’re facing off again. Jose Ortiz rides Nitrogen and Irad Ortiz rides Vixen. I think Vixen has more tactical speed, so I do think she might be more forwardly placed, but I think that gives Nitrogen an edge over her stablemate. Assuming this course is less than firm, which is a pretty fair assumption, I want the horse that will be finishing stronger, which has been Nitrogen. There’s also some other speed horses in this race, so the pace could be a little stronger than it has been for Vixen in her other two races this season. While I like Nitrogen a lot and am going to be using her on the A line, I’m going to make the Brad Cox filly, Fionn (#3) the top pick though. She should get some pace to close into and she ran very well over a course at the Fair Grounds that was on the softer side. The final time of that race was about five seconds off the par on a firm course, so even though it was labeled good, I think the conditions were more demanding. This filly has been improving in New Orleans this year, winning all three starts there over the winter. Horses from the Fair Grounds can often be overlooked, but they’ve held their own at this meet over the last few years. 

Race 7, The Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes:

A dozen runners are entered in this Grade 3 contest at seven furlongs. We have an All-Stakes Pick-4 starting in this race. There is a ton of speed signed on for this race and while there’s a potential future star here with Montalcino (#2), that one is going to be under pressure every step of the way in this race. Nutella Fella (#5) is a really nice horse that has been overlooked in big spots in the past. He was away slowly in the Grade 1 Hopeful in 2023, but he was moving well late to win that race going away, finishing ahead of Timberlake, who came back to win the Grade 1 Champagne. He went to the sidelines and didn’t show up again on the track until the Grade 1 Woody Stephens where they set a blistering pace up front. He was a close third behind Book’em Danno and Prince of Monaco, who are two very nice horses. He was off again before returning in a pair of races at Tampa over the winter. He was second best in his return, but he got up in time when going six furlongs in the Pelican Stakes there. He’s  a proven commodity as a deeper closer and this feels like a race where the could easily be a pace meltdown. There are several runners coming off the layoff that like to be forward and I’m thinking some of them could be a little more keen than usual. Gary Contessa has done a great job of managing this bargain colt that sold for a mere $12K at the Keeneland September Sale in 2022. His regular rider, Junior Alvarado, is sidelined with an injury, but picking up Luis Saez is not a bad deal. I think he’s very dangerous here. Montalcino was exceptional here in the fall, winning a N1X allowance race at this distance while stopping the clock in 1:21:2, while easing up late. He didn’t take a ton of pressure that day, so running those lightning fast splits might have been a little easier than they would have been if he was being hounded up front. He ran well to be second to Miles Ahead in the Thanksgiving Classic at the Fair Grounds. That runner on that oval is the epitome of a horse for course though. He was excellent last out in an allowance race that set him for this one. I expect him to fighting all the way, but it won’t be easy. Hoist the Gold (#6) is a horse that could get the right trip while getting first run on the frontrunners. He has some big efforts in his past, including a score in the Cigar Mile in 2023. He was also the winner of the Phoenix Stakes here that year. A trip to Saudi Arabia and an injury forced him to miss both meets here in 2024, but he’s another one that has had this race circled and he could be ready to show his best stuff today.

Race 8, The Grade 1 Resolute Racing Madison Stakes:

This is an exceptional Grade 1 contest that I believe will produce a few starters for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare sprint at this distance this fall at Del Mar. If you get knocked out of the All-Stakes Pick-4, or if you have a strong opinion in this race like I do, there’s another Pick-4 starting in this race. Scylla (#6) is the only runner in this field that has had experience in that race. She finished 4th by only a length in a wild finish last year. She ran well in both of her Grade tries at this distance last year, but I’m not sure this is the distance where she’s going to be the best version of herself. Conversely, I think this could be the “just right” distance for Justique (#7), who is coming off a pair of six furlong sprint wins at the Fair Grounds and at Oaklawn. I tried to beat her in the Carousel Stakes in Arkansas in her last start, but she ran a strong race despite breaking slowly to be an easy last to first winner. She rallied through a narrow opening on the rail, so she showed a lot of grit and tenacity that day. She was a stakes winner at this distance as a two year old and he rediscovered herself as a sprinter. She had a strong 46:1 bullet workout here last week and appears loaded for this race. I think she could get the perfect trip and pull off a mild upset here. I’ll backup with both Emery (#2) and Mystic Lake (#8). I don’t think there’s much separating these four year old fillies at the moment. They finished a neck apart in the Grade 2 Inside Information at Gulfstream last month. I do think both fillies may have to work a little harder in this race. I think Emery might be overbet after her dominating performance in the Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run Stakes here this fall at this distance. Both fillies are very nice runners and I think they’ll hook up at other times this season. Luan Machado gets another huge opportunity while replacing Tyler Gaffalione on Emery. Irad Ortiz is undefeated in two tries aboard Mystic Lake. 

Race 9, The Grade 2 Valvoline Global Shakertown Stakes:

This turf sprint stakes is always a fascinating contest and this year, it’s no different. A field of 11 have been entered here. I’m intrigued with the European invader, Rogue Lightning (#4). He’s coming off a strong win at six furlongs in Qatar while making the first start of his five year old season. He’s faced top sprinters like Big Evs and Starlust, both of whom have shipped to the US and won Breeders’ Cup races. Despite coming from overseas, he has a recency edge over many of these runners and a softer course should suit him just fine. Flavien Prat taking the mount also feels like a plus. The rail is not great for Run Carson (#1), but I liked what I saw from this colt in terms of versatility in 2024. For a turf sprint, this race isn’t laden with speed, so he could try to hit the front from the jump and keep on running. That was how he won the Carle Place Stakes at Aqueduct and Holiday Cheer Stakes on the Tapeta at Turfway. He was excellent when coming from off the pace in an allowance race at this distance at Churchill last fall though. He’s been working well for Kelsey Danner and he could be a horse to watch in this division this year. Our Shot (#2) was the winner of the Woodford at this distance here in the fall and Arzak (#3) was the winner of this race last spring, Both runners are back to try to notch another Grade 2 win here at Keeneland. Arzak ran really well here last spring when coming off a similar layoff, but as the season went on last year, it looked like he might have been losing a step. Our Shot was getting stronger, ending the year with a pair of Triple Digit Beyer Figures in the Woodford and the Harvey Pack at the Spa. He was flat when making his seasonal debut in the Turf Sprint at Tampa, but I think he’s much better suited to the 5 ½ furlong game. Both are worth thinking about in this race, but I see them both as B line plays. 

Race 10, The Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes:

I’ve posted horse by horse analysis of this race on the ITM blog, and I’ve linked that content below. The quick and dirty version is that I see a strong pace battle between River Thames (#1) and East Avenue (#5), assuming everyone gets out of the gate as expected. East Avenue has yet to prove he can fire his best shot when he’s not carving out the fractions and I don’t think Irad Ortiz is going to want to concede the rail position to a horse that has a Grade 1 victory on this oval. I think that sets the table for both Burnham Square (#3) and Chancer McPatrick (#6). While Chancer McPatrick has two Grade 1 ones already, I need to see him be as effective at two turns before making him the top pick. I think the price is going to be better on Burnham Square and I think he has a slightly better chance of winning this race, especially if they’re moving quickly up front. Owen Almighty (#4) is definitely more of a backup for me. He’s the only runner in this race that doesn’t need to worry about Derby Points. I think he’s going to be the one to back out of the early pace battle and stalk the leaders, Whether or not he can still fire his best shot when racing like that remains to be seen, but I think it’s going to provide a good educational experience for him to get him ready for the Derby, should his connections continue to pursue that option. 

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/road-to-the-2025-kentucky-derby-the-grade-1-toyota-blue-grass-stakes-by-eric-solomon/

Race 11:

We’ll end the day with a N1X allowance race for four year olds and up, sprinting seven furlongs. Let’s try to connect with a bomb in the nightcap and take Theismann (#12) on top. He put up a decent figure when debuting at this distance last winter at Santa Anita, finishing 5th in a fast race. The runner-up (Ashcroft, who runs in the Commonwealth in Race 7) from that race beat him in a one mile race in his next start, where something was clearly amiss. He came back after 10 months away with a nice win on the Tapeta at Turfway. He struggled last out in N1X company, but he drew the rail in a full field where he never really had room to run on a night where the weather was less than ideal. I liked him at the distance and I like that he’s drawn the outside post for this race. I think he’s a candidate to rebound and run a better race today. Seaport Lane (#1) is yet another serious runner for Cherie DeVaux. He debuted in January in a N1X race against winners. Perhaps they couldn’t get a maiden special weight to go around the time DeVaux wanted to run him. However, he was excellent that day, winning in gate to wire fashion, posting a serious Beyer Speed Figure. He didn’t beat up on some weaker winners either as both Pinfire and Map to the Stars (#8) are solid racehorses. The rail commits him to send for the lead and he’s going to have to work hard, so how he handles the added ⅛ of a mile remains to be seen. However,  I saw enough to believe that this horse, which cost his owners $435K, has some real talent. Map to the Stars feels like a candidate to move forward at this longer distance, so he’s a viable backup for me in this space. He needs to avoid trying to duel with the favorite though. He’s been a much better start since his last start on this oval. 

2024 Fall Meet Final Statistics:

39/162 (24.1%), $347.30 – $2.14 ROI

How to Read the Picks-Grid:

This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time. 

The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race. 

The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.

The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race. 

The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.