There’s only four more days of racing left in 2025 at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky. The new week begins with an eight race card headlined by an optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance sprint. Somewhat weather came through on Sunday, forcing two of the three turf races over to the main track. The early forecast for the rest of the week is sunny and dry, so as long as that holds up, we should be in the clear for the rest of the meet. First post today is set for 1:00 (EDT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 3 | 3,8 | 4 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 2 | 2,4,10 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 4 | 8 | 8,10,3 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 6 | 5 | 5,2 | 10 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 7 | 10 | 10,4,11 | DBL | ||
| 8 | 6 | 6 | 11,1 |
Race 1:
The final Wednesday card of the year at Keeneland begins with a $20K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the main track. Manage Xpectations (#1) is the even money morning line favorite, but taking her at this price is a tough pill to swallow. I think this race is a lot more wide open than that. From a pace scenario, it seems like Animal Fries (#2) is going to have little pace pressure while setting the early tempo and while lone speed should be appetizing, she has never won a race where she was setting the tempo. I’m looking for a horse that can stalk her early move and maybe get first run on some of the back makers. I landed on Eyes of Gold (#3) as the top pick. She’s done little in her last few starts, but all of those efforts came against better company. She made her first start in 10 months when finishing off the board in a $30K N2L in September at Churchill. She has races in her running lines that could win this race. Onmywaytosavthday (#8) has gradually improved since coming to David Jacobson’s barn at the beginning of the summer. She was a competitive second place finisher at this level in her try. Drawing the outside post isn’t great, mainly because there’s not a ton separating many of these fillies and mares. However, her current form is better than most in here. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Tiz Salty (#4), who was 4th, about 2 ½ lengths behind Onmywaytosavthday last out. She was facing winners for the first time and didn’t have the smoothest journey. She’s probably better suited as a price play underneath in the vertical exotics.
Race 2:
Two year old fillies are going to be spotlighted in three races on this card, including this restricted maiden special weight going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. All 10 runners that entered this race have at least one race under their belts. Seven of the ten fillies are going from turf to dirt and five of those seven fillies have never competed on the dirt at all. Click (#2) is the top pick for Bret Calhoun and Axel Concepcion. She finished about four lengths behind the morning line favorite, Noroomformischief (#7) in a race at this condition going six furlongs at Churchill last month. She has drawn closer to the rail and should appreciate the added distance, as her sire, Connect, gets 15% winners with first time routers on the dirt. Going from sprints to routes is a strong angle for Calhoun as well. I think she’s quick enough to hold her rail position and set the tempo if she wants to. Honor Azteca (#4) struggled in her direct debut in a sprint, but her last two starts at two turns on the turf were much sharper. Perhaps the grass is going to be her best surface, but she’s bred to do just fine on the dirt. Napoli (#10) is from the freshman crop of Maxfield, whose runners are performing at a high level across the country. She debuted in a one mile race at Colonial at the end of August and she ran an even 4th on the turf that day. She switches over to the dirt, and it’s worth noting that they don’t run two turn dirt races at Colonial for two year olds. The dam has foaled multiple winners on dirt, so there is potential for this one to move forward here. Perhaps Correas was more concerned with the turns than the surface at first asking. Post 10 is no picnic in these race, but I do think she’ll show up.
Race 3:
Three year olds and up will sprint six furlongs in this $40K N2L claiming race going six furlongs. When looking at this race, the version of Lambo (#1) that was running in Kentucky this summer would likely be an easy winner. However, the fact that this one was entered for a tag and claimed twice in his last two starts makes me very uneasy in regard to his prospects here. His last race at Churchill with $30K N2KL claimers wasn’t his best effort. Perhaps the muddy course had something to do with that, as none of his off track efforts have been very good. However, my real concern is that his form was falling off before being claimed by an unknown trainer, and I’m not convinced that this is going to be a spot for him to turn things around. Colonel Caliente (#4) is the morning line favorite in this race and I’m not going to try to beat him. He continues to trend up after breaking through with $50K maiden claimers at Ellis two back. He faced winners for the first time in the slop in his last start when going seven furlongs. He held his own, but weakened late. I think he’ll stalk the pace nicely while cutting back to six furlongs and make the lead at the top of the stretch. From there, I don’t see any of these running him down. Lambo is the logical backup just on the notion that I’m not going to be completely eliminated from a multi-race wager if the summer version of himself comes to play today.
Race 4:
The first of two races carded for the turf is a maiden special weight contest for three year olds and up going one mile. 16 are entered for this race, but only a maximum of 12 will start. Mary’s Lad (#8) is going to be the top pick for me in this race. He’s making his third career start and his second off the layoff for Whitworth Beckman. He ran well enough at this distance to make me think that he could contend at this level. He went to the sidelines after that May debut and came back in a six furlong sprint race at Kentucky Downs. He came up about four lengths short in that race after making a wide bid on the turn for home. I think this distance is a little more agreeable and that last race should give him the foundation to move forward with this group. En Fuego (#10) is the first foal to race from the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint champion, Belvoir Bay. She was paired with Nyquist to produce this three year old colt that debuted last month in a six furlong dirt sprint at Churchill. That was a solid race that he’s coming out of and his 9th place finish probably looked better visually than it does on paper. He broke alertly and near the leaders before having to check out of his spot after a furlong in. He came with a wide bid, but flattened out late. The dam was a Grade 3 winner on dirt at this one mile distance, so, when coupled with Nyquist, I think there’s a good chance this one could be productive at two turns on the turf. Horses sired by Nyquist have won 14% of the time in turf route races over the last five years. Clear the Beach (#3) is a third time starter who is stretching out to a route after sprinting in his first two tries. He finished second in both races, one on the dirt and the other on turf. The dam has produced a stakes winner at 12 furlongs on this turf course, so getting the mile is not a concern here. Like Nyquist, horses sired by Omaha Beach are also winning 14% of the time in turf route races.
Race 5:
There’s another overflow field for this maiden special weight, which is for two year old fillies going about seven furlongs on dirt over the Beard Course. 15 are entered in this spot, but there will be no more than 12 starters. I really like Touch of an Angel (#5) in this race. She reared back at the start which caused her to break last in a full field. It took her a little while to get going, but she made an impressive looking middle move, while going wide into the turn. She was unable to sustain the bid though and faded to finish 7th, about nine lengths behind the leaders. She was bred to be a good one as she sold for $675K last October. The dam did all of her work on the turf, but she was sired by Mucho Macho Man, so it’s not surprising to see this one starting off on the dirt early on in her career. Phil D’Amato adds blinkers for her second career start, which I think will be more successful, assuming she can get away cleanly from the gate. The backup for me will be Sticker Shock (#7) for Brad Cox. She’s a half to the Grade 1 winning mare, Fighting Mad, who was a winner on debut in her two year old season. While she is working like one of Cox’s better horses, I think his debut runners tend to be overbet, and the fact that he had another debuting two year old win at seven furlongs on this course last week, won’t help her overall price.
Race 6:
The featured race of the afternoon is an optional $80K claiming/N2X allowance race for three year olds and up sprinting six furlongs. I thought this race was one of the more challenging contests on the card. Tough Catch (#5) is the top pick, making his first start since a dull effort on a sloppy course in the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds back in January. He ran well here as a two year old in the Bowman Mill Stakes and he cleared the N1X condition in the Sugar Bowl Stakes, also at the Fair Grounds. They shot their shot on the Derby Trail, but when that backfired, we went to the sidelines. He’s been working well for his return and I think for as tough as this condition can be, I don’t think his foes are out of his league. It’s also worth mentioning that he ran with Lasix in the Sugar Bowl win and he’ll be on Lasix once again in this one after not having it for the Lecomte. He showed he had the makings of a nice sprinter last year and I think he’s a good fit in this race. Legalize (#2) has had some trouble staying sound, but the fact that he’s starting in back to back months for the first time in a long time, feels like he’s trending in the right direction. Like the top pick, he also cleared the N1X condition when he won the Sugar Bowl Stakes in New Orleans, only he was the winner of the 2023 edition. After finishing last in the 2024 Swale Stakes, he was away for over a year. He made one start in February and then was sidelined until September. He looked like he had a little rust to shake off in his last race, but that effort was encouraging enough to play him back in this race today. The morning line favorite is Classify (#10), breaking from the outside stall in this race. He faced a much saltier field at this condition earlier in the meet. He was 5th, beaten a little more than five lengths in that race. He wheels back 18 days later, and he’s run strong races on this kind of rest. He’s in better current form than anyone in this field, but I do have reservations about backing him at a short price when going six fur;longs. He’s only 1-8 at this distance, which tells me that he might be better served being used underneath in the bottom of the vertical exotics.
Race 7:
Two year old fillies will travel 1 1/16 miles over the turf course in this N2L allowance race which drew an overflow field of 13. There are some nice horses in this race coming off some impressive maiden scores, both visually and on paper. Graham Motion sends out Screen Test (#10) in this race after a maiden score at Laurel when making her second career start. That race was her first at two turns and her first on the turf, which is what she figures to do the best. She’s a half to Test Score, who has two wins in turf routes on this course, including one in graded stakes company. I think this filly has a decent forward coming in this race. Sister Troienne (#4) stayed closer to the front end when making her first start on the turf. She took over at the top of the stretch and kept that field at bay, winning by 4 ½ lengths on the wire. There could be a little more pace pressure in this race, but I don’t think there will be a ton. If she shakes loose again at the top of the stretch, she could prove to be tough to run down. It’s hard to fathom that Chad Brown could go winless at this meet this fall, but he’s still posting a goose egg in the column. He’ll have another chance with Memorized (#11), who could be a very nice filly for Resolute Racing. She’s the third turf route winner from the dam Memories Prevail. She cost $900K last September at the Keeneland Sale, so expectations have always been through the roof. Running here instead of a smaller stakes race is a little conservative barn for this barn, but she’s another one that has a good chance here.
Race 8:
We’ll close out the card with a maiden special weight race for three year olds and up going six furlongs. The favorite in this race is Nu What’s New (#1), who has two strong efforts in a row, including a strong effort when losing in a three horse photo here on Opening Day. He has left himself a lot of work to do in his last two starts, but he has come with a strong late rally. The rail post is really not ideal for his running style. Two starts back, he ran well in a maiden special weight at Churchill where he met some of the other runners in this race. He’s been too good to leave off completely, but I’m going to try to get better value on top. Barker (#6) was last seen in that spot where he had the misfortune of drawing the rail in that full field. He broke in while making his first start on the dirt that day, which resulted in him getting off to a slower start. He was last in the early stages of that one, but he did make a meaningful rally to get into 7th place, beaten only four lengths. Jose Ortiz retains the mount, so I’m expecting him to have this one in a more favorable position by the time they hit the ½ mile pole. Good Mojo (#11) is also coming out of that race where he was the unexpected pacesetter. He ran a credible race to be 4th that day, but I don’t think he’s one that wants to be dictating the terms of the pace. That effort was a nice rebound after a dull turf try two starts back.
2025 Fall Meet Statistics (As of 10/19/25), Top Pick Winners:
28/120 (23.3%), $279.40, $2.33 ROI
How to Read the Picks-Grid:
This grid has become my favorite tool for helping to handicap a race card in advance. Keep in mind that these designations for me are flexible and may change depending on how the value in the betting market shifts leading up to post time.
The “Top Pick” Column is fairly self-explanatory, meaning that it’s the horse that I think will win the race.
The “A” Column is reserved for the horses that I feel have the best chances of winning. The more horses that are in this column per race, the more wide open I think the race might be. For multi-race wagers, these horses will be on the bulk of my tickets. If I’m betting on the vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, superfectas), these horses would likely be candidates to be keyed on top.
The “B” Column are horses that I think have a chance of winning, but I don’t like them as much as the runners on the A line. If I put a morning line favorite in this column, I’m trying to find ways to beat them. For me, favorites on the B line typically will either be used underneath in the vertical exotics, or perhaps not at all. They’ll typically be used on some back up tickets in the multi-race wagers, especially in races where the other options aren’t as strong. I might also relegate a horse to the B line if I don’t think there’s good value on that horse with their morning line odds or how I think the race will be bet. For example, If I think a horse should be closer to 5-1, and their morning line odds are 3-1, he might start on the B line for me. If the betting public moves the line closer to the odds that I feel are fair, and I like the horse’s chances, I could move them up when I’m playing the race.
The “C” Column is reserved as a deep backup for me. Again, if a favorite is on the C line, that’s me telling you that I don’t like them that much in this race. I definitely won’t be using them on top in any vertical wager, as I’ll be trying to beat them with most of my tickets. Sometimes this spot will be reserved for a crazy longshot that checks one of the boxes I might be looking for when playing horses at long odds.
