Keeneland Late Pick-5 Preview – 10/17/21 – By Eric Solomon

The Sunday card doesn’t have any stakes action, but there are some stakes quality races in this Late Pick-5 sequence this afternoon. The first two turf races were taken off the grass yesterday, but the last two stayed on. With no rain in the forecast, I’m expecting all the turf races to be run as carded today. Keep an eye on leading rider Tyler Gaffalione today as he has several live mounts throughout the card.

Race A B C Exotics Menu
5 1,8,9   2 DBL, PK3, PK5,
6 12   3,6 DBL, PK3, PK4
7 5,7 1 2 DBL, PK3
8 1,10 5 6 DBL
9 4,8,10,11 16    

 

 

Race 5: Top Pick: 9

The late Pick-5 sequence starts with a $10K starter allowance race where there are several absolute tosses in the field. I would be surprised if the morning line favorite, Crime Spree (10) is the post time favorite. He ran a big race here last week on Opening Day, finishing 4th with $50K restricted claimers. That was a solid race, but I’m not sure he’s getting any true class relief facing horses that are consistent winners. His previous running lines also leaves me doubting that he’ll be able to duplicate that effort. I won’t be using him on any of my tickets. I think there are three that are evenly matched, so I’ll make the longest price, Alex’s Strike (9) the top pick in hopes of getting some value. He finished a close third at this level last out over at Churchill, closing well into a fast pace. He should benefit from the extra half furlong here, especially if the pace on the front end is a little bit lively. He has seven straight on the board finishes, winning three of those races. Most of his damage came at Fanduel (Fairmount), but he’s won on this track before. Thirsty Betrayal (1) is in career best form, winning at this level in the same race at Churchill. Joe Talamo has been there for all of his recent success and he’s back aboard. I think he’s another one that should benefit from the extra half furlong. Beverly Park (8) comes in here on a five race win streak, with all of those races coming in Ohio. Even though his best races have been on lesser circuits, he broke his maiden on this oval in October of 2019, so he certainly can handle the tougher competition. He has a lot of early speed and he could be joined by Tumbling Sky (2) in a potential pace duel. McKee has been able to get him to relax just off the pace in the past though, so if the pace seems too quick, he’s not committed to be setting it. If McKee does take back, Tumbling Sky could be a loose leader here, which could help him recover from a rough outing last time out when he was cooked in a duel. His form prior to that was much better though, so there’s certainly reason to believe a rebound is possible. I’ll use him on deeper tickets, and underneath in the exotics if he’s hanging around that 8-1 morning line figure.

 

Race 6: Top Pick: 12

The second leg of the All Turf Pick-3, also starts the late Pick-4. There’s not a lot of early speed signed on for the N2X allowance race going 5 and ½ Furlongs on the turf. I think this race sets up very nicely for the morning line favorite, Competitive Saint (12) to get the job done this afternoon. He hasn’t won since July of last year when he was an upset winner in N1X allowance company at Saratoga. Since then, he’s tried stakes company, and placed in the Mahony last year. He ended his three year old campaign in a similar race at this level where he also drew the outside post, where he finished a close 6th. There was much more early speed signed on that day, so his outside post worked against him. I think with there being less speed on paper in this race, along with Weaver adding blinkers, he’ll be in a much better spot. Tyler Gaffalione already has double digit wins at this young meet, so his presence certainly doesn’t hurt his chances. On deeper tickets, I’ll cover with Souper Dormy (6) and Seven Scents (3). I think Casse is trying to get Souper Dormy to show some more early foot in these races. He’s been working him aggressively in the morning and he adds blinkers for the first time. Beschizza may have moved a bit early on him in his last race at Kentucky Downs. He has a pair of good efforts this year on courses that were labeled good. Seven Scents was claimed at Lone Star two starts back by Ron Faucheux, who was the leading trainer this winter at the Fair Grounds. He ran a solid effort at Arlington for the first time in his barn. He has some good tactical speed, so he should be closer to the front while stretching out from five furlongs to five and a half furlongs.

 

Race 7: Top Pick: 5

Much like the 5th race, I’m not sold on the morning line favorite in here. Super Quick (2) earned favoritism after dominating a maiden special weight field last month at Churchill in the slop. On one hand, she show a lot of promise in her two year old season, but ran a few duds before her breakthrough performance. I’m not convinced she’ll be able to duplicate that effort when facing winners for the first time, on a track that should be more dry than what she saw last time. I’ll save her for the deeper tickets. Frost Point (5) is my top pick, stretching out to two turns for the first time in her brief career. She’s well bred, sired by Frosted, out of the Grade 1 winning mare, Balletto, so she should relish the added distance. She had a less than ideal trip in her first start of the year, but Mott should have her ready to go in her second race off the layoff. Trumpet Lilly (7) has caught three straight sloppy tracks in races in Arkansas, New Jersey, and Kentucky. The last time should caught a fast track, it came when she was going today’s distance at Oaklawn back in March. She won that race in gate to wire fashion. She may be capable of the same feat if she’s hustled away early from the gate. Look for a big race from her in this third start off the layoff. Wesley Ward sends out Blue Lily (1) for the 4th time in her career today. She has two turf tries, but her lone win came in an off the turf maiden claiming race at Saratoga going 1 Mile and 1/8. She didn’t run poorly when facing allowance foes at Kentucky Downs last out on the turf. She cuts back to a shorter distance on the dirt where she should benefit from breaking from the one hole.

 

Race 8: Top Pick: 1

The featured allowance today is for three year old fillies that have never won a graded stakes race, going 5 and ½ Furlongs on the turf course. I like Navratilova (1) wearing the one saddle cloth, but breaking from post 12 in this race. She won the Tepin Stakes going a mile at Churchill Downs during the spring/summer meet there, however, I think she’s better as a sprinter. She ran well here in April in the Limonite Turf Sprint, finishing 3rd behind Toby’s Heart. She was one of three heads on the wire in the Mamzelle in May. Her last two at Saratoga in the Lake George and at Kentucky Downs in the Music City were not her best. However, she faced some sold runners in those races and gets some degree of class relief here. Bullseye Beauty (10) has only sprinted once on the grass, but she looked good doing it, clearing the N1X condition on a good course at Churchill in June. She was most recently seen winning the Lake Erie Stakes at 6 Furlongs on the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle. I see her being able to gobble up a lot of ground late. Illegal Smile (6) will take some action at the windows, being trained by Wesley Ward. She is probably the most consistent sprinter in the field, but she has only one win to show for it. That win did come in stakes company, breaking her maiden in the Steward Manor at Aqueduct. I’ll cover with her on some of the multi-race exotics, but she’s probably better suited for underneath in the exotics. Lady Edith (5) is an interesting price play in this race, starting off at 12-1 on the morning line. She was the upset winner of the Mamzelle Stakes at Churchill earlier this year. That race was one of two very good efforts she turned in while sprinting on the turf. She struggled in an off the turf race at Ellis in the Pea Patch Stakes and she didn’t seem to care for the synthetics running in the Lake Erie Stakes. Perhaps she can find her best form coming back to Kentucky and getting back on grass.

 

Race 9: Top Pick: 10

Two year old fillies go 7 Furlongs in this $20K maiden claiming race that drew an overflow field of 16. Reid’s Fangirl (10) is the top pick for McLean Robertson. She ran two solid races in a pair of five furlong turf sprints at Canterbury when facing maiden special weight foes. She drops in class and stretches out while switching surfaces. Robertson has good numbers going from turf to dirt and dropping from maiden special weight company. She has been the most competitive horse in this lot in her previous starts. Both Tinsel (8) and Keino (11) are coming out of the same restricted maiden special weight race at Churchill where they made their debuts. Neither filly ran well that day and both make their second career tries here. Both their trainers, John Ortiz and Brendan Walsh do well with horses dropping into maiden claiming company. I wouldn’t be surprised to see either or both step up in this wide open race. Dawson Springs (4) has a decent effort at this level, fading to third when going 6 Furlongs last out at Churchill. I don’t love her at 7 Furlongs today, but she could be able to set a slower pace, which may help her find a little more in the stretch. She’ll need a bunch of help to draw in, but Joezine (16) could be worth a flyer if she does draw in. Trainer Adolfo Macias brought an overlooked horse that fit their race on figures in from a softer circuit to win here on Friday, going off at 17-1 (Murgatroyd). This horse fits that mold, as she’s coming here after running second in a two turn maiden special weight race at Belterra. Her speed figure in her only dirt sprint race is good enough to be a factor here. While it’s unlikely she’ll run today, she might be a name to tab for later in the meet as the racing office tends to have a good habit of bringing some of these overflow races back later on in the meet.

 

Pick-5 Tickets:

All A’s ($1.00 base wager – $48)

1-8-9/12/5-7/1-10/4-8-10-11

 

A A B A/B A ($0.50 base wager $18)

1-8-9/12/1/1-5-10/4-8-10-11

4 A’s / 1 B ($0.50 base wager – $12.00)

1-8-9/12/5-7/5/4-8-10-11

 

4 A’s/ 1 C ($0.50 base wager – $8.00)

2/12/5-7/1-10/4-8-10-11

 

4 A’s/ 1 C ($0.50 base wager – $12.00)

1-8-9/12/2/1-10/4-8-10-11

1-8-9/12/5-7/6/4-8-10-11

1-8-9/3-6/5/1/4-8-10-11

 

$122 Total Wagered

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