Keeneland Late Pick-5 Preview – 10/20/21 – By Eric Solomon

Wednesday’s late pick-5 features three strong allowance races and a pair of decent maiden special weight contests for two year olds. There are some solid favorites on this card, so there is definitely the chance that this sequence will be chalky.

Most Likely Winner:

Daddy Is a Legend (#1, Race 6, 7-5 ML)

 

Best Price Stab:

Paris Paramour (#5, Race 8, 15-1 ML)

 

Race A B C Exotics Menu
4 3,7 12   DBL, PK3, PK5,

Turf PK3

5 2 3,7,10   DBL, PK3, PK4
6 1   3 DBL, PK3
7 2,3 5   DBL
8 1,4,5,11 15    

 

 

Race 4: Top Pick: 3

The late Pick-5 starts with a N1X allowance race at 5 and ½ Furlongs on the turf. This feels like a race where you can feel pretty good with the two favorites on your ticket. Wesley Ward has been close to unstoppable with his turf sprinters at this meet, winning yet another one on Sunday. He sends out Super Design (3) who was a very impressive maiden special weight winner at Kentucky Downs on debut. He won going away after tracking the early pace. He’s shown three nice interim drills on the dirt course here since that race. He looks like a horse that has some ability while finding a race that should set up pretty well for him from a pace standpoint. Cheeky Chaps (7) is the morning line favorite after two big efforts to start his career. He absolutely dominated a maiden special weight race on debut at Monmouth where he was afforded the opportunity to set a slower opening quarter and fly home the rest of the way. He backed that effort up with a solid effort against a very good NX allowance race at Kentucky Downs. That was one of the faster 6 and ½ Furlong races at that meet, and Kentucky Downs graduates have been very strong at this meet. On deeper tickets, perhaps give a look to Hope and Dignity (12) making his first start off the Mike Maker claim. He broke his maiden in a dirt race at Churchill at the beginning of the month when facing $50K maiden claimers. He finished first in his only turf start at Ellis in July, but was taken down and placed second after drifting out in the stretch. He’s proven to have good speed from his outside draw and could take a step forward in his first start for Maker.

 

Race 5: Top Pick: 2

Maiden special weight two year olds go 6 and ½ Furlongs here. Fan the Fire (2) is going to be very tough to beat in this spot, getting back on the dirt after trying the turf in stakes company last out at Kentucky Downs. He hit the board twice at Saratoga in dirt races at this level, facing a next out stakes winner in Major General (G3 Iroquois at CD). He also was defeated by a next out stakes winner when running on the grass. (Tiz The Bomb, G2 Bourbon at Kee). I think his foundation will make him very tough to beat in a field where I think the biggest threats are making their first starts. Improbable Journey (3) is an interesting firster debuting for Larry Jones after a decent string of works, including three straight five furlong drills. Jones has started five horses at the meet, winning with one and finishing second with three others, so he’s definitely brought live runners to Lexington. Mask Patrol (7) debuts for Brendan Walsh after a three furlong blowout work over this course last week. He’s been working regularly since the beginning of August for his debut and Florent Geroux talking the mount is a positive. Pine Valley (10) is a $250K WinStar purchase running for Steve Asmussen. He and Ricardo Santana have been ice cold at this meet thus far, with Santana going winless in the first eight days, and Asmussen scoring with only one starter with 25 mounts. The colt definitely deserves another chance after fading badly in the mud at Saratoga at first asking. However, I’ll need a little better value than 4-1 on such a cold barn in a race like this.

 

 

Race 6: Top Pick: 1

I thought Daddy Is a Legend (1) was a live longshot in the Grade 1 First Lady 11 days ago, but she hit the gate pretty good and spotted a high quality field about five lengths in the early stages of that race. She came with a wide run late to get into 8th, but there wasn’t really a swift pace in front of her to help set up her late rally that she forced herself into having to make. She started her season at this conditional allowance level and beat a good eight horse field that day. She was also a winner when dropping to this level in the fall of 2019 on this course. She’s been competitive at the Grade 1 level and she faces a field of five other nice fillies and mares. However, collectively, the other runners in this field are 0-10 in Grade 2 and Grade 3 stakes, with only two on the board finishes. I just think she’s too good for this group, so I’ll eat chalk and hope to get a price elsewhere. On deeper tickets, Pass the Plate (3) is the one I’ll use on the C line. She’s traded blows with second choice, Dominga (4) in over the last year. She sits at 6-1 on the morning, whereas her rival is 8-5. That’s too big of a discrepancy for me when looking at two fairly evenly matched horses. Pass the Plate is typically too far behind in the early stages, but she has shown the ability to lay a closer to the front end when running in short fields. She’s run two very nice races on this course, whereas Dominga is 0-2, finishing off the board both times when racing here.

 

Race 7: Top Pick: 3

Movie Moxy (2) is another short priced favorite in this optional claiming/N2X allowance race at seven furlongs on the main track. She certainly is the most consistent filly in the group, and I believe she’s at her best at these one turn races. However, she feels a little vulnerable in this race, as she hasn’t won since clearing the N1X condition at Churchill, over eleven months ago. I’m not in love with either of the other short prices. Tipsy Gal (1) is coming off a big effort in stakes company at Colonial, but has struggled to run two big races in a row, and Powder River (6) has never gone this short before after some respectable two turn efforts. I ended up thinking that the horse with most upside in this race is Piece of My Heart (3), who has never sprinted on the main track before. She’s coming off three straight one turn races at Arlington, two on the polytrack and her most recent on turf. I think she’s a better horse on traditional dirt, and she showed a lot of promise last year in two turn races at Oaklawn on the dirt. Her 2021 campaign hasn’t been great, but her first polytrack race at Arlington was really good, which tells me that she might be a better one turn horse at this point in her career. Mac Robertson has done well with the limited horses he’s brought here, and I’d take a shot with her in this race at 8-1 (ML) or better. Thinking (5) is another filly that could have some upside. She had things her own way at Laurel last out when she easily cleared the N1X condition in a one turn mile race. She cuts back in distance and faces a tougher group here. She has the least experience of the group, but she’s a winner at the track, breaking her maiden here last year. She’s a daughter of Nyquist and his progeny seem to really like it here at Keeneland.

 

Race 8: Top Pick: 5

This is the most logical race to spread, and going skinny in the earlier legs of this sequence allows us to do just that. I think Paris Paramour (5) is a live longshot in this race, exiting a debut at Kentucky Downs on a yielding course last out. She looks like a horse that wants to stretch out and her trainer, Conor Murphy, does well with those types. He’s worked her four times over the synthetic course at the Skylight Training Center since her debut. I think we’ll see a better effort from her this afternoon. Both Gimme Mo Baby (4) and Azamana Empire (15) are coming out of the same race. Gimme Mo Baby surged late to get third at long odds. She runs for a relatively unknown trainer, Kara Toye, so there might be a little value on this one. Azamana Empire is stuck on the AE list and is unlikely to draw in. If she does, she’ll likely be the favorite or second choice at post time, in spite of what will be a wide draw. She’ll definitely need to work out a trip if she does get to compete. I’m going to assume Azamana Empire will be scratched, so I’m not putting her on the tickets that I’m putting together, however, if she does draw in, I would rework some of those tickets to include her on the B Line. Already Charming (1) is the morning line favorite here, and she’s playable if you’re willing to forget her bad day at Kentucky Downs. She was acting up before the race, and likely expended all of her energy before the gates opened. Her debut was sharp at Ellis two back, and she looks to be able to control the pace from her rail post. In the vertical exotics, I’ll be watching to see if she’s on her best behavior before the race, because if she looks irritated, this might be a spot to play against her. However, you won’t have that luxury with the multi-race wagers, so I’d be apt to use her on those tickets. Twin Cause (11) is another live player in this maiden special weight contest. She was 8th in her debut against a solid field at Kentucky Downs, when going a mile. The runner-up in that race, Hardspun Woman came back to be third in a good maiden race here against a heavy Chad Brown favorite, Haughty. Walsh does well with his horses at second asking, winning 19% of the time.

 

Pick-5 Plays:

All A’s – ($2.00 Base Wager – $32)

3-7/2/1/2-3/1-4-5-11

 

AB/A/A/AB/A ($0.50 Base Wager – $18)

 

3-7-12/2/1/2-3-5/1-4-5-11

 

A/B/A/AB/A ($0.50 Base Wager – $18)

3-7/3-7-10/1/2-3-5/1-4-5-11

 

4 A’s/1 C ($0.50 Base  Wager – $8)

3-7/2/3/2-3/1-4-5-11

$76.00 Total Wagered

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