Keeneland Racing Preview – 4/9/21 – By Eric Solomon

We have a rare treat today with a Grade 1 race, The Makers Mark Mile, offered on a Friday afternoon. Nine horses entered that contest, which is supported by a second stakes race, The TVG Limestone Turf Sprint for three year old fillies. There are also three maiden special weight races and three solid allowance races that help put together a great card.

Race 1: Top Pick: 6

Wesley Ward seems to be in the driver’s seat in the opener, which is a $40K maiden claimers for fillies and mares, three year olds and up. He sends out race favorite, Epicurean (6) with Irad Ortiz aboard. There isn’t much early speed signed on here, so she shouldn’t have much of an issue making the lead. She made her dirt debut at Gulfstream last out with $50,000-$40,000 maiden claimers, when she battled near the front end before fading to third. She is now second off the layoff and facing a softer group. She should be very tough in this spot. One longer priced horse that might be worth adding to deeper tickets is Kiss Theory (3) running for Dale Romans. Toss her last where she didn’t run a step on the turf at this level. Her last few haven’t been great, but she may prove to be better sprinting.

Race 2: Top Pick: 3

The first of three maiden special weight races on the card is for fillies and mares three and up and 1 Mile on the main track. Ben Colebrook always points his horses to this meet and he won with his first two horses to run (Rising Seas, R2 4/2, and Cancellera, R2 4/7). He sends out second time starter Flauto (3) here after a respectable debut at this distance on synthetic at Turfway. She looks to have the best early foot in this race, and she has a decent post to make the lead if that’s what Corey Lanerie wants to do with her. Her sire Street Sense ran well on synthetic and usually improved when going from synthetic to dirt in his next start. I’m thinking she could steal this, especially with the short stretch in the mile run. Fair Grounds invader, Maybe Later (7) is also live after taking a big step forward in her second career start. She was a game second to a nice filly in Mucho Macho Momma last time out. She too might try to be forwardly placed, especially with her outer draw. She’s from the Michelle Lovell barn that was starting to heat up towards the end of the Fair Grounds meet. Maryland invader White Winged Dove (2) ran twice in Ireland before running a solid race in her dirt debut at Laurel last June. She’s been off since, but she’s been working well at Fair Hill for her return. She’s by Karakontie, so returning to turf might be in her future, however, his runners have been running well on all surfaces.

Race 3: Top Pick: 4

This nine furlong maiden special weight race on the grass is for three year olds and up. Eight of the eleven entered are three year olds taking on three four year olds. The four year olds are tough, but all three of them have had multiple tries that have yet to net them a victory. I’m going to try El Kabong (4) who didn’t draw into the three year old race at the same distance yesterday. He debuted at Gulfstream with a respectable first try, finishing 5^th, beaten 4+ lengths. He had some prerace antics that may have hindered his performance. This race goes off in the middle of the Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequence, so you’ll have to hope he’s minding his manners while in the paddock and warming up on the track. However, Luis Saez does keep the mount, and Rusty Arnold’s horses tend to get better with more experience. Sliabh Aughty (9) tried taking them all the way last time in a maiden special weight race on the Louisiana Derby undercard. He got caught late, finishing 4^th, beaten 2+ lengths. He ran better than he did in his North American debut in February, and may have another forward move this afternoon. There doesn’t appear to be a ton of early foot for him to contend with. Absam (8) and Nineeleventurbo (6) are both trained by Mike Maker. Absam ran better when getting back on the turf after disappointing as a heavy favorite two back. He had some issues at the break and still ran on late to be a close 4^th. Nineeleventurbo gets back on the grass after four synthetic tries at Turfway. His last two turf races this summer were solid and he gets Lasix for the first time today. This feels like a last chance for both of these, where if they don’t win or run well, they may be destined for maiden claiming contests.

Race 4: Top Pick: 8

This is a full field of $30K maiden claiming fillies and mares. Bernadette The Jet (1) is the favorite making her four year old debut after some solid efforts in maiden special weight company in Maryland and Kentucky. She was a $425,000 purchase and she’s had trouble staying healthy, so I’m looking to take a swing against her in this spot. I’m interested in Sweet Queen Bee (8) making her first start on dirt after two tries at Turfway with maiden special weight company. She was dull last out, but she was defeated by Twenty Carat, who came back to win the Grade 3 Beaumont here on Opening Day last week. She showed some promise in her debut and her works on the dirt course here have been getting quicker. I think she could pull the upset here. Ollie’s Gold (4) deserves attention strictly from her connections. She makes her debut for Wesley Ward, who is now winning at 43% with his first time starters in maiden claiming company after training a debut winner, Cornbread Hill, in the nightcap yesterday (and paying a solid $13.80 as well). Irad gets the call after she showed a solid work over the track last week. Orient Night (2) showed some interest at this level in her debut at Turfway before fading badly. She should be able to secure rail position near the front end, which was a good spot to be yesterday. On deeper tickets, perhaps try Lets Take It Izzy (12) coming up from Tampa for her debut for trainer Jose Delgado. She had been working well at Tampa and worked over this course last week. The leading rider at the meet, Luis Saez who already has 12 wins in four days of racing, gets the mount.

Race 5: Top Pick: 1

Editor At Large (1) is the one to beat in the N1X allowance for three year old fillies on the turf. She was an impressive closing day winner at Saratoga, and followed up that effort with a 3^rd place finish in the Miss Grillo downstate at Belmont. She came here for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf, and had to contend with Post 13. She was wide and had to settle for 7^th, beaten 5 lengths by Aunt Pearl, who threw down the gauntlet that day. She’s been working well at Palm Meadows for her seasonal debut and looks to be very tough among this group. Lijana (3) draws the rail after being shuffled toward the back of the field in the Herecomesthebride Stakes last out at Gulfstream. Two back, she was an impressive maiden winner in a full field of 14 at the Fair Grounds on the Lecomte Day undercard. She’s apt to get a more forwardly placed trip this afternoon and could be a tough one for the favorite to deal with. Mrs. O’Connell (6) ran well in three turf starts as a two year old, breaking her maiden at Churchill after competitive efforts at Saratoga (where she was beaten by Editor At Large) and Keeneland. The second and third place finishers in her maiden win came back as next out winners. She tried the dirt in her three year old debut and was dull at Oaklawn. She gets back on the turf and is second off the layoff for Kenny McPeek. I think she’s live in this race at a price with Castellano getting aboard. Stunning Sky (2) is the likely second choice off her big effort to break her maiden last out at Gulfstream. She will get a stiff test today facing a full field of winners. I don’t think I’ll get the value I’d like on her, which would be closer to 6-1, as opposed to her 4-1 morning line odds. I’ll still use her as a saver though. One big price that might be live is Gote Go (8) coming in from Canada for Roger Attfield. She broke her maiden on synthetic to end her two year old campaign. She ran well enough sprinting on the turf leading up to her maiden breaking score. Attfield isn’t great off the layoff, but he had an off the bench winner at Gulfstream that paid well recently (Gray’s Fable winning the Appleton Stakes on the Florida Derby undercard). She might be a good candidate to try underneath and on some of the deeper multi-race exotics.

Race 6: Top Pick: 1

Older fillies and mares compete in an optional $62,500 claimer/N2X allowance race and 1 Mile and 1/16 on the dirt. The big question is what do you do with the big favorite, Spice Is Nice (5) making her first start since a dismal effort in the Alabama. She’s a million dollar purchase that has been sparkling in her one turn races. Her two starts at two turns have come in graded stakes and she was dismantled both times by Swiss Skydiver. She had a lousy trip in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, and clearly went wrong in the Alabama, so you could argue she has had excuses. In addition, everything that is coming out of the Pletcher barn is live at the moment. However, you’re going to have to take a very short price on a horse that hasn’t run well at two turns. I’m going to use her as the B horse on my tickets and try Movie Moxy (1) to spring the mild upset, while trying two turns for the first time. She’s bred to get the distance, and she’s been patiently handled by Eddie Kenneally. She’s never run a bad race and she broke her maiden on this course in October. Her two best races were at one turn miles at Churchill and Gulfstream. She was given a few months off and returned a little sluggish at seven furlongs at Tampa. I’m willing to forgive that effort, which still wasn’t terrible, as that can be a demanding track and distance for a comeback spot off a layoff. I think she’ll be more fit off that start though and I’m expecting her to relish the added distance. I’ll cover with Market Rumor (6) on deeper tickets. She’s was steady, but not spectacular throughout her three year old campaign. She ended her year on a sour note running a dull race in the Falls City when Envoutante ran off the screen. She has been working well in the AM, but she might need this start before we see her best.

Race 7: The TVG Limestone Turf Sprint, Top Pick: 9

It’s a turf sprint stakes at Keeneland, which means that Wesley Ward is loaded. He’s won both turf sprint stakes races at the current meeting, and I like both of his horses here. Carimba (3) was very fast winning both career races at Indiana Grand by open margins. This will be the biggest test she’s faced by far, and she’s doing it off a 6+ month layoff. However, Irad gets the call and I’m intrigued with blinkers coming off for this start. Campanelle (8) is the deserving morning line favorite and the one to beat. She is undefeated as sprinter, losing her only start at two turns in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Ward adds blinkers to this one for her three year old debut. She has been working well in the morning and looks ready to fire here. Goin’ Good (9) is undefeated on the turf and lost her only dirt race by a length in stakes company at Oaklawn. She’s shown speed in some of her races, but her last win on the turf, she rallied from four lengths behind to win in New Orleans. Alda (10) is another filly making her first start as a three year old. She was very good last year in her one turn turf races, winning two of four and finishing a close second in the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine. Her two turn debut did not go well in the Breeders’ Cup. She’s shown the ability to close on the turf, which may come in handy as the pace could be lively.

Edit:

With the scratches of Carimba and Campanelle, that changes how I’m looking at this race. I plan to keep Alda (10) as a B horse as there’s less early speed signed on to aid her late run. I’ll upgrade both New Boss (6) and Toby’s Heart (7) as A horses. Both have shown ability and with the defections of both Ward horses, I think their chances improve.

Race 8: Top Pick: 2

This N1X for older horses going 6 and ½ Furlongs looks like a good spot for Gozilla (2) to clear this condition while making his second start since being moved to the Mark Casse barn. He was one of the more talented debut runners at the Saratoga meet in 2019. He ran credible efforts in the Hopeful and the Champagne, when he was beaten by Tiz The Law. He only started once as a three year old, and that came here in July under identical conditions. Something clearly went amiss as he was last of eight and didn’t resurface again until February of this year at Aqueduct. He came back with a solid effort at this distance and condition. I’m expecting a forward move from him here. I’m also expecting a better effort from Aloha West (3) who has had trouble at the gate in both of his career attempts. He was the beaten favorite at this level on Rebel Day at Oaklawn when he had a miserable break. He still ran on well to be a close 5^th. I think the added half furlong is a plus, especially if he can secure better early position with a clean start.

Race 9: The Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile, Top Pick: 2

This is a very interesting race early in the season for this division. Chad Brown sends out both Sacred Life (4) and Raging Bull (8) and both are likely to take money. I think Sacred Life is a slight notch below some of these, and Raging Bull was disappointing in general last year after a monster start to his five year old campaign out west. I’ll cover with Raging Bull on the deeper tickets, but I’m trying to beat him. I ended up with Hit The Road (2) on top, shipping in from Southern California, trying to make an early statement in this division. Five horses traveled from the East Coast to try to beat him on his home turf in the Kilroe Mile, but they were all denied as he surged late and nailed Smooth Like Strait on the wire. He now comes East and looks to win his 5^th straight race and second consecutive Grade 1 race at one mile on the turf. I’m most interested in seeing what Darain (5) can do at this level after decimating an allowance field at the Fair Grounds last time out. The regally bred son of Dubawi and Dar Re Mi just missed in his North American debut in January, and followed that up with a big effort in allowance company. I think the original plan would have been to get him to the Mervin Muniz at nine furlongs two weeks ago, but bad weather in February took him off that schedule. I would have made him my top pick if this race was a little longer in distance because he’s never gone shorter than 8.5 Furlongs, however, he is classy and improving for strong connections. Get Smokin (1) is coming off a win at Tampa in Grade 3 company where he showed that he was comfortable rating just off the early pace. He draws the rail here and he has Somelikeithotbrown (3) to his outside, who would love to control the pace without working too hard to do so. I think his rail draw commits him to the lead, and I think that’s a plus for him here. He’s often overlooked at the windows, but usually runs credible races. I like that he’s won two of his last three suggesting he’s starting to put it all together.

Race 10: Top Pick: 1

Kenny McPeek got his first winner of the meet yesterday when Fighting Seabee won with a gutsy effort in N2X allowance company. I think he could be looking for another win with Front Street (1) in this 7 Furlong maiden special weight contest. She was overmatched in her last when beaten by Pass the Champagne, who ran well in the Ashland here last week, and Another Woman, who broke her maiden after that race. There was a ton of speed signed on for that race, and Front Street was keen in the early going before fading to third. There’s not much known speed signed on here, unless one of the first time starters is keyed up. Rail speed was not a bad thing to have yesterday. I’m expecting an improved effort this afternoon. Caramel Swirl (9) cuts back to a one turn sprint after two dullish efforts at two turns. She was game chasing nice fillies, Malathaat and Miss Brazil while sprinting. Mott takes the blinkers off in hopes of getting her to relax a bit in the early stages. On deeper tickets, Musical Cat (5) is an interesting blue collar filly taking on some blue blooded foes. She ran well on debut in maiden claiming at Gulfstream and now takes a big step up to the maiden allowance level. Brendan Walsh has good numbers with second time starters. I’d like to see a little more speed from her in the early stages, and if she can be build off her debut, she could threaten some of these.