Racing Fact Check: How do Trainers Do With First-Time Starters and Layoff Runners at Keeneland?

Even more Keeneland action, this time focused on trainers and how they do with first time starters and off different types of layoffs.

As usual, please feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@john_camardo) or on here.

I would also love to plug the last two pieces located here on the site.

1. How winners won their races – a look at how races were won in terms of horse’s position throughout the race: https://inthemoneypodcast.com/2019/04/04/keeneland-how-winners-won-races-race-evolution/
2. Looking at the Keeneland meet through data – an intro to how trainers and jockeys perform at races over the various Keeneland track configurations: https://inthemoneypodcast.com/2019/04/02/keeneland-looking-at-the-spring-meet-through-data/

First time starters

First off, for trainers with first time starters, with 10 or more mounts since 2014, the results are as follows:

• Immediate popping out at the top of the list is the fact that Todd Pletcher wins more than 50% of the time with his first time starters and hits at a positive ROI
• Since we all know how well Wesley Ward does, his win percentage is very high with first timers, but his ROI suggests that he is bet a little too much for me to stomach. Horizontally, at a win percentage of almost 30% you almost have to use defensively, but in the win pool there is really only chalk to be had.
• There are plenty of trainers that have no wins with first time starters – look to the bottom of the list for potential fades.

Layoffs

In no way should this be taken as an indictment of certain trainers or suggesting certain horses can’t win because their trainers have poor numbers. For betting purposes however, I often find it interesting to see how certain trainers perform after resting their horses for varying amounts of time.

If you like a horse, and the price to you presents value, I wouldn’t necessarily let the stats below talk you out of making a bet. That being said, here we go.

6 months or more since last start

For layoffs of more than 6 months off the trainer stats are as follows for trainers with 10 or more mounts since 2014:

• It is interesting to see Todd again at the top of the list, even higher than Chad Brown from a win percentage perspective, and ROI perspective. Potential win pool plays in play here, but obviously again you almost have to play in the horizontals, unless you have a good reason not to.
• Toward the bottom it’s super interesting to see Wayne Rice with a very high number of starters, but only 1 winner from horses coming off 6 months or more of a layoff.
• Michael Stidham horses coming off six month rests appear to punch way above their pay-grades (impact value sky high). Could be some sneaky prices at play here

3 to 6 months since last start

For trainers who haven’t started their horse in 3 to 6 months who have 10 or more starts since 2014, the results are as follows:

• Chad and Todd to no one’s surprise do very well of 3 to 6 month layoffs. I feel like a broken record, but it’s worth saying again – horizontal plays are almost a must here, but win pool seems like something to avoid with these guys given their ROI’s are sub $0.50.
• Wesely Ward shows up here, but with only 4 winners from 37 runners.
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8 to 12 weeks since last start

• The sweet spot for Chad Brown horses appears here. You can actually get a positive ROI for playing chad horses coming off 8 to 12 week layoffs which to me is kind of surprising.
• Kiaran McLaughlin tops the list at a 50% win rate, though his horses in this spot appear to get bet to pretty low odds. Interesting that the ROI is unprofitable, but the win percentage is so high that the impact value appears below one.
• Can’t go wrong with Todd Pletcher

4 to 8 weeks off

Note that this is filtered for trainers with 20 or more starters since 2014.

• Chad and Todd again appear toward the top. However, I find it interesting that their win percentages are much lower in this bucket than the buckets above that represent much longer layoffs.
• You can find only one positive ROI play in the top 16 trainers in this layoff category, and that is on Kirian. What that says to me is that there isn’t a tremendous amount of signal in this layoff group. However, many of the impact values are greater than 1 so you may be able to dig for some prices with the top trainers in this category.

11 days to 4 weeks off

Note that this is filtered for trainers with 20 or more starters since 2014

• To continue the discussion of Todd, you’ll have to look pretty deep into the table above to find his numbers off of 11 day to 4 week layoffs. Only 7 for 44 here with an unprofitable ROI and impact value of less than 1. I’m genuinely curious why this is.
• Wayne Rice at the bottom is 0 for 35. He along with other names toward the bottom could be good fades.
• Brad Cox appears to almost be the opposite of Todd in terms of trainer trends (top of short layoff buckets as opposed to Todd who is at the top of trainer buckets for long layoffs). He ends up close to the top of this bucket with a nearly profitable ROI.