Kentucky Derby Contender Profiles – Super Stock

HOW HE GOT HERE

The rare Kentucky Derby entrant that never actually won a maiden race, Super Stock enters a newly minted Grade I winner.  He began his career quietly on the turf before improving rapidly on the surface switch at Lone Star Park.  With a 3rd place finish in the Iroquois when he raced within range of a very strong pace, this son of Dialed In showed he had serious talent.  Winning had been his hang-up to that point, and he ran two solid races in the Breeders’ Futurity, behind eventual BC Juvenile winner Essential Quality, and Street Sense behind King Fury. 


The Rebel Stakes did not play out as the showdown many expected between Caddo River and Concert Tour.  That had everything to do with Caddo River deferring early and allowing the latter to procure an easy lead.  Super Stock was much too far off the pace and could not put a dent in the leader’s margin while racing in some traffic.  He was a candidate to improve in the Arkansas Derby and did just that, rating comfortably off a very strong pace before answering the call in the lane.  It was a breakthrough performance for a horse that had shown talent without putting together a big race.

 

HOW HE FITS HERE

It is unfair to call Super Stock’s trip in the Arkansas Derby “perfect” though he did have a cozy position sitting just off the embattled pacesetters.  He wound up pouncing on them late to win going away, but he had to run much faster early than he ever had before.  That kind of versatility is always a plus when dealing with the Kentucky Derby, and he is a horse who still has plenty of upside.  You rarely see horses that are capable of running fast races at 5.5 furlongs in August of their 2YO seasons come back and perform at a Grade I level at 3.

HOW IT FIGURES TO GO HERE

Super Stock figures to get a good trip in mid-pack rating a few lengths off the pace.  His jockey, Ricardo Santana, Jr. is quite adept at getting position in the opening stages, and he looked very comfortable aboard this bay colt in the Arkansas Derby.  There are no real concerns about him being a casualty of pace given his versatility, which we saw on full display on April 10.

 

OVERALL CHANCE

From a wagering perspective, Super Stock is a minor player for the multi-race plays and an underneath candidate in verticals.  He can win, and should be included in Pick 4s and Pick 5s for those with deeper budgets.  You will get fair value on him at or around 15-1, and you should demand that if willing to take the plunge.

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Further reading

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