Sunday presents the penultimate opportunity to watch and wager on Kentucky Downs on a card that includes a pair of $1M stakes for juveniles.
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Selections
- Race 1: 7-9-5-3
- Race 2: 4-2-8-7
- Race 3: 6-3-7-5
- Race 4: 4-6-3-7
- Race 5: 11-10-7-4
- Race 6: 3-9-2-8
- Race 7: 4-7-2-1
- Race 8: 9-2-1-7
- Race 9: 3-2-7-5
- Race 10: 5-9-12-4
- Race 11: 2-10-9-12
Kentucky Downs Race 8: Belle of Rights (#9) at 6-1 or higher
I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wants to bet She’s Lookin Lucky (#1) as the most likely winner in this expensive allowance event. She’s proven to have an affinity for this turf course based on her encouraging run in the One Dreamer Stakes last year. This is probably an easier field than she’s met in her most recent two starts, but it’s concerning she hasn’t officially won a race since July of 2024. It would be fitting for Sabalenka (#2) to get this victory given her namesake’s triumph in the U.S. Open yesterday. I’ve always been a fan of this mare going back to her debut at Colonial in 2022 and she’s also won over this turf course in the past. I’d use her prominently on my tickets, but my top pick is going to be Belle of Rights (#9). This filly has always shown potential winning on debut which is not super common for Shug McGaughey runners. I believe she’s better going shorter than the 9f she’s been forced to contest a few times in her nine career starts. There appears to be a couple runners willing to press the favorite which could set it up for a closer like her.
Kentucky Downs Race 10: Quiet Street (#5) at 3-1 or higher
The Untapable Stakes lost some star-power when Lennilu (#3) opted to stay home rather than contest this event. It’s unfortunate since her performance in the Gulfstream stakes race was underwhelming and I was looking forward to betting against her here. Snow Face Princess (#4) inherits the role of the favorite, but I question taking a short price on her after switching barns very recently. Z Z’s (#9) is super dangerous for a barn in Brendan Walsh that excels at Kentucky Downs. However, she won her debut in front-running fashion and there’s others in this field that employ that running style. I’ve opted for a runner that’s proven to be able to pass horses making Quiet Street (#5) my top pick. This Godolphin filly blew the break in her debut but was still able to swoop past the field despite the race just being 5.5f. I can see her appreciating this elongated sprint on her way to a Breeders’ Cup try.
Kentucky Downs Race 11: Abbi Fede (#2) at 9-2 or higher
I don’t need a few of the shorter prices in this nightcap which presents value elsewhere. I realize morning line favorite Founders (#7) really shouldn’t still be a maiden given the questionable nature of that DQ in his last start. However, it’s worth considering that was a maiden claiming event where he was 8-1 and now he’ll be less than half that price against maiden special weight company. Gold Sovereign (#8) is the other one I’m willing to take on since Chad normally he doesn’t debut his best stock at Ellis, this gelding didn’t take any money and the barn’s struggled at Kentucky Downs over the years. If taking a short price, I’d much prefer Crystal Hill (#9) or Chapman’s Peak (#10) given the former is proven to handle this strip and the latter is regally bred. However, my top pick is Abbi Fede (#2). She really outran her odds going 12f over this course last week and now cuts back to 10.5f. She’s quick enough to get the lead early and this barn just upset a stakes race yesterday.
#TheCheatSheet
2024 + 2025 Meet Statistics (thru 9/4)
All
Top Picks: 98-25-17-9 (26%, $2.50); Featured Horses: 33-7-6-6 (21%, $3.16)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 57-9-8-7 (16%, $2.52); Featured Horses: 22-3-3-5 (14%, $3.44)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 53%; B’s: 19%; C’s: 21%; X’s: 7%
