Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 6-Danzing Dream (Race 6)
Race #1: 2-Prime Time Porta is by G1 winning sire Paynter and attracts the meet’s leading rider off decent a.m. drills over at San Luis Rey. 6-Eligio (By Congrats) shows a series of well-spaced workouts for today’s unveiling and barn is 4 for 5 ITM this local stance. 5-Halo Uncle debuts for a barn that has sent out all live horses this mini-meet.
Race #2: 1-Shvere Arbeter has speed and the rail while making the first start off the claim for conditioner Lorenzo Campuzano. This 5-year-old mare has a win over the track. The lightly raced 5-Trojan Way has been freshened and drops in for a career-low claiming tag. This filly broke her Maiden over this course and barn is 6 for 23 (26%) with a $2.80 ROI with horses returning off 61-180 days’ rest. 3-Lucy L is 0 for 3 over this course but drops down back into winning level from two-back.
Race #3: 3-Benedetta is by multiple G1 winner City of Light who gets a modest 12% with his debut runners but attracts Hernandez who is 4 of 5 this current mini-meet. Trainer Simon Callaghan is a strong 6 for 11 (55%) with a $3.32 ROI with debut runners at Los Al adding to this filly’s strong appeal. 1-Misty Muppet is by multiple G1 winner Tonalist and debuts for a barn that scored with a pair of first-time starter winners in 2022. 2-Kalifornia K arrives on the scene with snappy a.m. drills for trainer Luis Mendez including an eye-catching 3-furlong bullet drill in :33.3 on July 3. This juvenile filly is by multiple Grade 1 winner Yoshida (Jpn).
Race #4: 1-Speeding Style had a troubled trip 3rd on opening day versus a trio of the same runners who return to action today and is a logical threat again at the $8k claiming level. 3-Oil Can Knight comes off a series of decent efforts over the evening course including a 2nd place finish in the 1,000 Yard Summer Championship Stakes on June 18. He drops back in for a tag this afternoon and has run well enough over the bigger afternoon layout. 6-Facts Matter was a sharp winner over the course opening day off the claim going this 5 ½-furlong trip.
Race #5: 1-Worcester goes turf to dirt and is back against Maidens after a disappointing try in the Cinema Stakes on June 11. The Empire Maker colt finished a strong 2nd two-back going a mile earning a solid (94) Beyer speed figure. A similar effort would make him extremely tough in this spot and he retains Hernandez with the rail draw. 4-Adventuresome has flashed speed in all three career starts for trainer Peter Miller and his sire Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Arrogate gets a strong 21% with his dirt route offspring. 2-Flat Out returns to the main track after a subpar grass try exiting the same race as Adventuresome. Both his dirt efforts in April match up well here figure-wise.
Race #6: 6-Danzing Dream (by Danzig Candy) debuts for trainer Cliff Sise who is an impressive 3 for 3 (100%) with debuting runners at Los Al with a lofty $16.73 ROI. Aggressive gate rider adds to the appeal. 3-Tiger’s Arrow is 0 for 18 but comes off a solid 2nd-place finish at this level opening weekend. 1-Distant Steppes debuts with Lasix in a weak field for trainer Steve Knapp and gets hot bug boy. The gelding need not be much to compete here at first asking.
Race #7: 5-Hot Thoughts was a runaway Maiden winner here last December and returns off a 4-month freshening for conditioner Brian Koriner with a solid worktab. This filly appears to be the speed of the speed and should be tough to reel in late with alert break. 2-Teen Drama goes first off the claim for Knapp today coming off a tough nose loss against similar opening weekend. 7-Spoiled Rotten goes second off the claim this afternoon and finished behind Teen Drama in most recent effort on June 24.
Race #8: The talented mare 5-Bella Renella has won 6 of her last 8 starts and her last two victories have been by a combined 14 lengths. She’s tough to look past at short odds. The blinkers come off 1-Kiss My Cat today after flashing good speed and tiring in the last pair of efforts. This 4-year-old filly is 2 for 3 going this shortened 5 ½-furlong trip but was far behind top pick on June 18. 3-Essential Business is one of two Doug O’Neill-trained fillies lined up in here. This gal was plucked for $32k from the Miller barn on June 11 after a convincing win off the bench. She returns protected today and shows two works since that last win.
Race #9: 2-Reincarnate has been freshened since the lackluster KY Derby effort and has trained well in the interim for Baffert. The Grade 3 Sham winner lands in a pace-less affair and could be the dominating frontrunner against this group. 3-Skinner has had some physical setbacks the last couple of months but appears back on track after a series of recent solid a.m. drills for Sheriffs. This son of Curlin has shown spurts of talent in runner-up finishes in the G1 Santa Anita Derby and G1 Del Mar Futurity as a 2-year-old. His stablemate 5-Smart Mo is confidently moved up after a strong one-mile Maiden win on May 26 where he earned a (94) debut Beyer.