Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Paint Me Lucky (Race #4)
Race #1: 2-Warren’s Memorable cuts back to a sprint and drops down to career bottom claiming level for trainer Craig Lewis. This 4-year-old filly was beaten less than a length in good effort over this course two-back earning a competitive figure for this level. 4-Drizella has good speed; takes a substantial class drop going second off the claim and broke Maiden over this course last July. 3-Truth Prevails goes first off the claim for Morfin and has run well here in the afternoon in prior starts.
Race #2: Class dropping 5-My Man Bags makes the all-important 3rd start off the bench today and returns to the oval he broke his Maiden at in initial outing. This jockey/trainer combo are 3 for 6 (50%) when teamed up on this course. 6-Fun Coupons comes in here with 4 consecutive evening runner-up finishes and looms a danger again today on the class drop. The 5-year-old has run just as competitively during the afternoon cards. 1-Riversky has speed and the rail and was a sharp Maiden winner going 5 ½ furlongs at Sacramento two-back.
Race #3: 3-Let’s Acclimate finished a decent 3rd and earned a good figure in turf debut for D’Amato and has trained very well over the dirt here in a.m. drills. 6-Offlee Icy finished ahead of the top choice in August 18 grass sprint and has come back to work sharply since including two bullet drills for Sadler. 4-Magnificent Ride has yet to find the winner’s circle but has been very competitive in recent starts and owns the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (77). When last seen here three-back he just missed by a nose.
Race #4: Beaten favorite 1-Paint Me Lucky flashed good speed before tiring late at this $8k claiming level up at Golden Gate and now makes his 2nd start off the Wong claim. This 7-year-old gelding has had good prior success here and should be tough to reel in from the rail. 2-Outright showed little at Del Mar with back-to-back poor starts but goes 2nd off the claim today for trainer Milton Pinada who is 12 for 40 (30%) with this angle the past 3 years. This gelding is 1 for 1 over this course and shows two sharp 5-furlong drills locally since last subpar DMR effort August 20. 6-Willy The Cobbler has lost 12 straight but gets some significant class relief this afternoon.
Race #5: 3-Cal goes turf to dirt on the class drop and showed good speed for Maiden breaking score over this course two-back. A strong wire-to-wire threat today. 2-Dancing Soul goes turf to dirt and drops way below $40k claiming purchase price from two-back. 6-Nap Time just missed by a neck going 1,000 yards on the evening card September 3 and broke Maiden at 17/1 three-back going this 5 ½ furlong trip. This 3-year-old filly looks appropriately placed this afternoon and is reunited with winning rider.
Race #6: 2-Chain Gang was no match for runaway Maiden winner Flame Rider but made up a solid 15 lengths in the stretch drive after dropping back to last soon after the start on September 1 debut. The 2-year-old gelding by multiple G1 winner Stay Thirsty galloped out past the winner. Beaten favorite 7-King Zog makes the all-important 3rd career start and drops back down to level of near miss two-back. The gelding gets a key rider change today and is the one to beat at likely short odds. 6-Lampy is by Lotsa Mischief who is 9 for 31 (29%) with 2-year-old first time starters. 1-Stanford Man hasn’t showed much ability yet but removes the blinkers today on the class drop and makes the all-important 3rd career start for trainer Jonathan Wong.
Race #7: 6-Box of Chocolates comes off a decisive win at Del Mar and now makes first start for lucrative claiming barn that’s a strong 9 for 19 (47%) with new acquisitions. The gelding was a good second here two-back going slightly shorter. 5-Superman Shaq has speed and looks to repeat off the Adan Farias claim. This gelding’s Beyer figures have improved with each subsequent start this year. 4-Midnight Special moves back to dirt off the claim where he’s run equally as well.
Race #8: 5-Good Vibes Only has speed; owns the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (90) and is reunited with winning rider. 3-Savile Row has ability but had some issues which has limited this colt to only having one start in 2020 and another in 2021 for Baffert. He returns off a 13-month hiatus but has trained well locally for 2022 appearance. 1-Handsome Cat moves inside and is a re-claim for trainer Steve Miyadi. A repeat of his runner-up finish from two-back would make him competitive this afternoon.
Race #9: 4-Ganadora is a $1 million-dollar Keeneland purchase that’s won 2 of 3 for Team Baffert and has been freshened since suffering first defeat when dead heating for 4th in the G2 Summertime Oaks. This talented filly by Quality Road is reunited with winning rider Juan Hernandez and has trained smartly for return. Baffert’s other filly 5-Velvet Slippers makes 2nd start off the mini-freshening and has two runner-up finishes over this course. 1-Empire House removes the blinkers; gets some class relief and broke her Maiden over this strip.