Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Big Celebration (Race 6)
Race #1: The 8-year-old veteran gelding 2-Sigur Ros has been freshened and has won 4 of his last 7 races for a lucrative jockey/trainer combo that’s (57%) with horses returning off 61–180-day rest. 8-Baby Gronk goes turf to dirt and has had good success at this oval. 3-Love Me Jimmy was a winner here during the afternoon card two-back against cheaper. The speedy 4-Whisky My God (Arg) has won two straight and goes 1st off the claim this afternoon for trainer Salvador Naranjo. The barn is only 1 for 39, however, with new acquisitions.
Race #2: 3-Baby Kristen has won two in a row including breaking her Maiden during the daytime card July 9. A solid threat to take 3rd straight on the front end. 6-Bonita Leona has good positional speed; draws outside and comes off a solid evening win at 1,000 yards just 12 days ago. Beaten favorite 5-Jewelofakid goes route to sprint off the claim.
Race #3: 2-Bizzy Gal hasn’t shown much in two career starts but drops in for a tag for the first time today for trainer Peter Miller and should find this field much easier than what she faced on the grass at Del Mar in most recent start. 5-Golden Again drops from $50k to $30,000 tag in start number two and need only improve a few lengths to compete here. 4-Gold Switch debuts for a sire that’s 2 for 10 (20%) with 2-year-old first time starters and has trained decently for her unveiling for trainer Gary Stute.
Race #4: 1-Encode is a logical choice dropping from MDSW to Maiden Claimers on the cutback for Hernandez and Baffert. The son of Empire Maker has speed; the rail and makes his 3rd start off the layoff. He also owns the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (78). Baffert’s other runner is firster 5-Purified who is by multiple G1 winner by Lord Nelson who gets 15% with his 2-year-old debuting prodigy. He’s worked well enough over the local footing and this jockey/trainer combo scored with good-looking first-time starter Gandolfini last Saturday. 2-Raku Firing showed good improvement switching to dirt with runner-up finish at 24/1 at DMR.
Race #5: In a race where the early pace is projected to be rather swift according to TimeformUS things should set-up nicely for 3-She’s Got a Way. The 3-year-old filly goes turf to dirt; route to sprint and takes a sizable class drop for conditioner Peter Eurton. The lightly raced 4-year-old 4-Violent Runner has won two straight for Sadler and has been freshened for this. The filly still offers some upside. 2-Baby Steps has good speed; moves inside and might be a better filly now than when last seen trying dirt last summer.
Race #6: 5-Big Celebration had a decent debut when rallying in the late stages to grab the 4th spot and is eligible to move forward in career start number two for barn that typically improves with second time starters going 5 for 11 (45%) with a lofty $9.05 ROI at Los Al. 1-Cherry Chaos removes the blinkers today and makes first start on dirt for Solis on the cutback. The filly has the pedigree to handle the main track. 6-Thank You Kera makes the all-important 3rd career start today after showing very little at Del Mar in both local outings. On the positive side, this fill has trained sharply over this local surface with several bullet drills on the resume.
Race #7: 3-Self Isolation was a runaway winner by 7 lengths when last seen trying dirt here three-back going a mile and finished second in other local start. This 4-year-old filly for Team O’Neil looks to be the speed of the speed. 1-Shared Future goes two sprints to a route and second off the claim for trainer Steve Knapp. This barn is a solid 5 for 17 (29%) with a $3.44 ROI with this claiming angle at Los Al. 2-Warrior’s Moon is 0 for 2 here but comes off a 17/1 upset at Del Mar where he earned a field’s best (76) Beyer speed figure. The 5-year-old mare makes 3rd start off the bench today.
Race #8: 6-Hot Thoughts is eligible to improve moving to dirt in career start number two and dropping in for a tag for trainer Brian Koriner. This barn is 4 for 11 (36%) with second time starters at Los Al. The juvenile filly by multiple G1 winner Palice Malice has trained well over the main track since initial outing. 5-Night Party was well-backed when showing good early zip on September 9 debut effort before tiring and finishing second. The one to beat with any normal second-out improvement. 2-The Reign Song makes second start at this reduced $50k Maiden Claiming level and owns the field’s best last-out Beyer.