Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Sing a Happy Song (Race 3)
Race #1: 5-Paid in Gold is one of two Peter Miller-trained fillies lined up in the Tuesday July 4 holiday opener. This filly adds blinkers; goes turf to dirt; and shortens up off the claim. She figures to trip out nicely for potent jockey/trainer combo. 1-Ava’s Storm has hit the board in all three turf tries for Sadler and is bred to handle the main track. 3-Merrily Rush ships in from Kentucky off the Jonathan Wong claim.
Selections: 5-1-3
Race #2: 4-Sunrise Journey has great gate speed on the class drop and was a gate-to-wire winner over this course last September. 5-Established ships in here in excellent form for trainer Tim Yakteen with a recent win and runner-up finish on June 2. That last race has already produced a pair of next-out winners and this barn is 5 for 17 (29%) with second off the claim runners. 3-Kant Beat the Rock returns to dirt which has become this gelding’s preferred surface as of late with two decent main track tries two and three-back.
Selections: 4-5-3
Race #3: 1-Sing a Happy Song is by win-early sire Standford who gets 16% with his debuting offspring and this filly has trained exceptionally well for today’s unveiling. Trainer Jonathan Wong won with the last pair of debuting runners over this afternoon course last summer—Early Release (4/1) and Ten Rings (9/1). Unfortunately, this filly will likely be odds-on. 4-Isabel Ludlow is the most experienced filly in this field with 8 career starts and is bred to handle the surface switch for Miyadi. 2-Flymetothemoonbaby was far behind in last from outside post but should rebound moving inside this afternoon and her first two career tries weren’t awful.
Selections: 1-4-2
Race #4: 4-Rain Diva ships in with an improving Beyer pattern and sharp looking recent win against $10k claimers at Santa Anita. This 6-year-old mare was a gate-to-wire winner over this strip last September and looks tough right back at short price. 1-Drizella exits two consecutive 4th place finishes but has run well over this afternoon layout and can improve here. Golden Gate shipper 2-A New Peace goes turf to dirt on the class drop and can compete with this group on her best.
Selections: 4-1-2
Race #5: 1-Mister Bold had a nice prep for this with recent 4th place finish on June 18 and can improve returning to a surface he has run well over while making second start off the bench. A mild upset chance. 2-My Summer Dream returns to the site of his career best main track Beyer (92) and gets some class relief dropping out of two small stakes at Golden Gate. The ultra-consistent 3-See Through It fires every start and comes in off three consecutive grass sprint second place finishes. The 6-year-old gelding likes this course and figures to work out a favorable stalking trip.
Selections: 1-2-3
Race #6: 1-McWherter has speed with the rail; drops back into a claimer and has run equally well on the evening card and afternoon program. 2-Wegonahavagoodtime is wheeled back quickly after showing speed and fading late against much better claimers 8 days ago. The gelding switches to Vasquez this afternoon who has done well for these connections. 5-Perfect D removes the blinkers and has been freshened for this.
Selections: 1-2-5
Race #7: 4-Equipo comes off three consecutive runner-up finishes under the lights but has run well over the bigger afternoon layout as well. The mini-meets top rider takes over. 2-Time Is Gone is unproven over the afternoon layout but has run well on the evening program for top connections and sports the field’s best last out main track Beyer. 1-Quick Intro was a troubled trip 4th over the course on June 23 and can rebound in this spot dropping a tad in class.
Selections: 4-2-1
Race #8: 5-My Destiny was hardly disgraced with recent 5th place finish in the G1 Derby City Distaff at Churchill May 6 and is proven over this course. This 6-year-old mare has won 5 of her last 7 starts; is the class of this field and is hard to look past despite the short price. A sharp bullet work on June 28 indicates she’s in top form. 1-Unwritten Code won 5 straight before hitting the sidelines back in March and draws the rail with speed for today’s comeback effort. 2-Indy’s Star goes second off the claim today and is back sprinting after surrendering the lead on June 23.
Selections: 5-1-2
Race #9: Multi-graded stakes winner 1-Elm Drive has won two straight for D’Amato and projects to trip out nicely from the rail. This filly shows 4 works since that last turf sprint stake victory. 2-Eda is a grade 1 winner having won 5 straight for Baffert while taking the Starlet here back in 2021. This talented filly has had here share of layoff lines but has managed them effectively for top connections. 3-Rose Maddox cuts back to a sprint after back-to-back turf tries and would be the beneficiary of a contested early pace.
Selections: 1-2-3
