Maiden Focus by @ThoroBredPicks (Aqueduct, March 7)

1-for-1 on Saturday, with FINAL BELLE winning @ $18.00

Aqueduct – Race 3

#6 MUTASALLEM (6/5 ml)

Gave this colt out in his debut when he ran second @ 9/1 odds, as he had worked four times in a row with LAMUTANAATTY, who came out of those drills to win his debut on Jan 9. Following that, MUTASALLEM worked from the gate with ST. JOE LOUIS, an older turf horse who ran second by a length in his debut at Tampa Bay on Jan 31. In his final pre-race drill, he worked with the good stakes horse HIGHLY MOTIVATED, which he actually did again just recently in his final drill for this race. HIGHLY MOTIVATED of course came out of that drill to run third in the Gotham yesterday. Note also that Chad Brown is using rider Eric Cancel, whom he used aboard CROWDED TRADE yesterday (ran second by a nose in the Gotham). Obviously won’t be a big price, but he may not be too low either, as the Pletcher colt DYNAMIC ONE is listed right behind him @ 7/5 ml and figures to be well-supported based on his close second behind GREATEST HONOR two starts back. Expecting a solid run by MUTASALLEM today, and definitely prefer him over the other favorite.

ThoroBredPicks record:
Win record: 27-for-103 (26% winners)
Total mutuels: $238.90 ($8.85 average win price)

Also, for anyone interested in playing the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager today, I posted a write-up earlier this week on a longshot that I think might offer some value:

#8 LIL TOOTSIE (30/1 ml)

Tapiture filly in the very capable hands of Tom Amoss, this under-the-radar type ran a nice second in her debut while finishing 5 lengths clear of the rest of the field. Improved dramatically in her second start, assuming command after a half-mile and getting out through very strong splits, finishing up roughly 3 lengths faster than the good BLAMEWORTHY/RUN CLASSIC maiden race that was run an hour later on the Lecomte undercard. Also note that second-place finisher EUPHORIC returned to win by 10 lengths (in 1:09.85) on the Risen Star undercard. For her part, LIL TOOTSIE returned to win her two-turn debut going away with a nice inside rally, giving the impression that not only is she very fast, she’s also a very professional and determined sort, which of course is what you’re looking for in these types of races. It’s also worth noting she won over a sloppy track that day, because it isn’t unusual for there to be rain on Kentucky Oaks Day. Amoss has since committed her to the Fair Grounds Oaks, which of course figures to send her into the Kentucky Oaks if she indeed comes up with another strong performance. Given what she’s showed thus far, she looks like a major player in the the Fair Grounds Oaks, particularly when you consider the presumptive favorites in that race (CLAIRIERE and TRAVEL COLUMN) ran a good bit slower in the Rachel Alexandra (1:45.34) than did MANDALOUN in the Risen Star (1:50.39 for the extra sixteenth). Also be aware, RUN CLASSIC (mentioned above) won a maiden race in much faster time on that same card (1:44.39), while allowance winner BIG LAKE also went faster (1:44.83). Maiden winner SAINTHOOD went roughly the same (1:45.26). Based on everything stated above, I think LIL TOOTSIE is being very much undervalued compared to CLAIRIERE/TRAVEL COLUMN, has a very good chance of upsetting them in the FG Oaks, and has a legit shot at the Kentucky Oaks win as things currently stand.

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