Monmouth at the Meadowlands Racing Preview – 10/1/22 – By Eric Solomon

Update: Racing has been cancelled for this evening due to wet conditions. I‘ll post an update if there’s a plan to make up the card this week. Otherwise, we’ll be back at it on Friday 10/7.

October begins with the 4th night of racing scheduled for the Monmouth at the Meadowlands meet. There’s a heavy dose of five furlong sprints tonight, including the feature which is an optional claiming/N2X allowance to kick off the card. Weather may very well impact the program as rains are expected in the area throughout the day from what’s left over from Hurricane Ian. I’ll update this page if there are any updates in regards to the racing status for this evening. Otherwise, the card will start at 7:00 (ET). 

Race 1:

With four of the six races being carded at five furlongs tonight, one of the angles that I’ll be looking for on this card is trying to find the horses that might prefer this distance as opposed to the 5 and ½ furlongs that is offered at Monmouth. 5 and ½ furlong races at Monmouth employ a chute where the five furlong races there don’t. As a result the 5 and ½ furlong races can create some tough trips where horses are trying to overcome ground loss out of the chute while trying to establish position. Discreet Tune (#4) and Fore Harp (#5) fit that description in this optional $20K claiming/N2X allowance race. Fore Harp gets the call after dominating an optional claiming/N1X allowance field at this distance at Parx. This breeding combination of Weigelia and Katarica Disco has produced several talented sprinters on both turf and dirt. He ran well at the 5 and ½ furlong distance at Saratoga when trying turf sprints for the first time this summer, but like many of his full siblings, he proved to be more effective at five furlongs. I don’t think anyone can go with him early and I can see him continuing to find late, especially if he’s able to build off that last effort. Discreet Tune ran some very sharp five furlongs races before going off form when facing tougher fields at Colonial and Saratoga when going 5 and ½ furlongs. He handled the good course at Monmouth very well in May and June, so I have no concerns if there’s some give in the ground tonight. If Fore Harp does bounce, and Discreet Tune can’t find his better form, Oldies But Goodies (#1) would be the logical player to back up with. He’s been very sharp in his last three in Maryland, including a win at this distance three back at Pimlico in May. Once he was in the clear, he was moving well late in his last start at Laurel. I don’t love the rail for him, but I trust Jorge Vargas to work out a decent trip. 

Race 2:

In a bit of a cruel twist of fate, the largest field of the night might have the shortest priced favorite on the card. Postino’s Prophecy (#2) looks awfully tough to beat in this state bred maiden special weight race for fillies and mares going 1 mile and 1/16. She was beaten by Her Name is Lola and Indiantown in her last two starts and there’s no one of that caliber in this field. She was steadied last out, falling back several lengths, but she was moving well late to secure third by a wide margin. Jairo Rendon was riding the course exceptionally well last night, and he’ll get the return call on the most likely winner on the program. I’ll eat chalk here and try to move on.

Race 3:

We go back to a five furlong race in this $30K-$25K N2L claiming contest for fillies and mares. Patty Cakes (#3) is an interesting runner that may go off at odds higher than her 6-1 morning line figure. She drops in class after a wide trip when going 5 and ½ furlongs at Monmouth, while trying the turf for the first time. While she was never going to hit the board that day, she was moving with interest in the late stages of that one. She draws closer to the rail today and could be rolling late if she can get a better trip. Walks Like a Lady (#9) has had to start and stop on her career several times. She ran a nice race to break her maiden with $25K maiden claimers at Laurel when she last raced in June. While she didn’t beat much that day, she was ridden confidently, suggesting that there’s more in the tank. She comes back after a three and a half month layoff for Sarah Nagle, who has good numbers off of breaks like that. On deeper tickets, I’ll include the morning line favorite, Bali Baby (#5) for the champion trainer at the recently concluded Monmouth Park meet, Claudio Gonzalez. She came north from Gulfstream after being privately purchased. She just missed in her Jersey debut at the end of August, finishing second at this condition and distance. If they run tonight, she will compete on a much softer course than she’s used to, so that is a question that will have to be answered. 

Race 4:

This conditioned $5K claiming race for fillies and mares feels like a race where I’ll want some coverage. Volador (#6) is the morning line favorite, taking a massive drop in class after running in a steady diet of allowance races in Maryland and Pennsylvania. While I do tend to shy away from major drops, she was claimed for $6,250 last August. She was a strong 4th at Aqueduct in November on a good course at the end of her 2021 campaign. She hasn’t come back as strong in her five year old season, thus explaining the drop. I’m a bit surprised to see her at this level, especially when McMahon likely has some other viable options in Maryland and Delaware. I’ll use her on the A line, but I’ll try to go price hunting. I’ll make Creedibility (#8) my top choice, getting back on the turf for the first time in a long time. She hasn’t won a race since February of 2021, and she’s been hanging around in the $5K N1Y level for a while. She went miserably off form for a good chunk of time in 2021 and into 2022. However, she has run better races in her last three starts. She ran three times on the grass earlier in her career, and each of those races were speed figure upgrades from the previous dirt start. This will also be the first time she’ll try two turns on the turf, as all three of those previous turf races were sprints. I’ll want better than 10-1 (ML), but I think we’ll get it on a horse that could be rounding back into better form. Blame the Gods (#9) drops in class after some not so sharp races at Delaware and Colonial for Kelly Deiter. She’s a seven year old mare, so she could be losing a step. She has handled softer ground in the past though, and I think if Arroyo can avoid losing too much ground into the first turn, the outside draw will suit her better than the rail last time out. On deeper tickets, I’ll use Isla Bonita (#3), coming out of a stacked $12,500-$10,500 claiming race at the beginning of August. She didn’t run well on a day where I thought she was a live longshot. Pugilist, who won here at that level last week beat her, with the second and third place finishers winning in their next starts. She’s not as sharp as she was in 2021 when she won three times, however, she did have a nice effort on this course last October. 

Race 5:

Seven are entered in this $10K maiden claiming contest, sprinting five furlongs. I had a tough time making a case for the longer priced horses in this race. I ended up using the three shorter priced runners, making Almond Cider (#2) my top pick. He almost pulled off a 94-1 shocker with $16K-$14K maiden claimers three weeks ago at Monmouth. Rafael Schistl has taken over for John McAllen as the trainer of the Kingdom Racing horses, and I’ve noticed that many of them have been running better, while going off at solid prices. Looking at this modest group, I’m not sure we’ll do any better than his 3-1 morning line figure, but he showed enough in his first turf sprint to make me think that he can run a similar race tonight. Get Them Digits (#6) ships in from Colonial Downs for Ferris Allen after finishing third with $16K maiden claimers there. He was part of a contested pace while breaking from a wide gate. Like Almond Cider, that was his first try in a turf sprint, and progeny of Dialed In win 12% of the time when sprinting on the turf. The Big Calico (#1) might be a notch below the top two, but he’s worth including on this ticket because the other two are going to have to prove they can run back to their last races. He dropped into $16K-$14K maiden claiming company last time out. Suit of Armor, who beat him that day, was a professional maiden , but he was running figures that were significantly better than the runners in this field. He’ll need to step forward, but he’s playable with this group, especially if his odds float over the 5-2 morning line. 

Race 6:

We’ll wrap up the evening with another conditioned $5K claiming race, this one for fillies and mares sprinting five furlongs. Call Me Jelly Roll (#3) is a perfect 1-1 on the turf, beating open $4,500-$4,000 claimers at this distance at Fort Erie last year. She’s been flat in her three starts this year, but I think there is some upside with her getting back on the turf. Bernard Durham is not a household name in New Jersey, since he has a small stable and usually races at Charles Town. However, when he ships to a track with a turf course, he’s horses must be paid attention to. He’s won with 7 of 11 starters in turf sprints since 2021, with a massive $7.83 ROI. Look for Jomar Torres to be aggressive with her early in this spot. Apprentice Madeline Rowland won the nightcap last night with a very heads up ride on Dream Astray. She also won the opener, so she has a good feel for how this course is playing. She gets the call on the morning line favorite, Captain Sam (#2) here for Carlos David. She faded late against better two back at Colonial when going 5 and ½. She ran a strong race on a soft course at Penn National at this distance earlier in the summer. She will definitely be getting some class relief in this spot tonight. My Masterpiece (#4) has run some strong races this summer at this distance at Penn National, when facing open $10K-$9K claimers. Her one start at Monmouth this summer was not good , but she was facing Odramark that day, who is definitely better than anyone in here. Her form has been up and down, so she’ll have to prove that she can run those strong races in other places. 

Pick-5, $36 Ticket

I tried to pare down this ticket a bit, since Postino’s Prophecy (#2, R2) will be a heavy favorite in the opening leg. The fields are a little shorter tonight, which could affect the value in this wager. I do think the $5K claiming races in the sequence, Races 4 and 6, are capable of producing some longer priced runners, so I tried to spread out accordingly in thoise spots.