The rails come back out to 17 feet for the Saturday night card, limiting the field size limit to ten horses tonight. The featured allowance in Race 6 features a good battle between two New York breds coming across the river to try to clear the open N1X condition.
|1||5,8||7||DBL, PK3, PK6|
|2||12||5,8,9||DBL, PK3, PK5|
|3||2,11||4,10||DBL, PK3, PK4|
Race 1: Top Pick: 5
New Jersey bred two year old fillies sprint 5 Furlongs in this maiden special weight. No one has any turf form to go off of here, so I’m looking at pedigree and speed. In It Together (5) fits that mold, as a daughter of War Dancer who has Purim has a dam sire. She ran well enough to be third at this level on the main track last month. She Loves Gold (8) might not have a pedigree that screams turf sprint, but she was pretty fast early in her debut. They were getting tired at the end, but she held second, beaten only a length. Speed was good in the sprints last night. An interesting longshot that might be worth including on your tickets is City Speaker (7). Her pedigree suggest that she will have success on the grass, being sired by Mr. Speaker out of a City Zip mare. She’s been lethargic in her two dirt races, but there are no world beaters in here and she won’t have to drastically improve on the grass to be a factor here. She’s 30-1 on the morning line, and at that price, I’d definitely put a few dollars on her.
Race 2: Top Pick: 12 (AE)
I don’t have a lot of strong opinions here. If Daddy’s Cozy (12) can draw in off the also-eligible list, he’ll be tough here. He hasn’t been the version of himself of late, but he’s been better than most of these. Road To Meath (5) could be a low key kind of horse to take this group to gate to wire while going to a two turn race on the grass for the first time in a long time. Disco’s Bridge (8) hasn’t done much on the main track over the last few months, finishing off the board in his last six starts since being claimed in June at Monmouth. However his last turf start in the spring at Tampa was decent, which is enough for me to consider using him in this spot. Bee Major (9) will be bet heavily here, but he hasn’t won in a while. I’ll cover with him, but I think there’s value in trying to beat him.
Race 3: Top Pick: 11 (AE)
Much like the last race, this race would be a lot more interesting if a few of the also-eligible horses made it in to the body of the field. The two favorites are a combined 0-32 in here, which has me trying desperately to find value. Song Saver (11) shipping in from PA after a dull try at two turns on the turf last out, makes sense if she gets to compete. She ran very well in a sprint three back on the grass at Penn and I’m being very forgiving about any bad races on the Parx turf course last month, as that course looks to be in rough shape. Bramble Bush (2) adds blinkers, drops in class, and cuts back to a sprint. She ran a credible effort in a sprint three back at Monmouth when facing maiden special weight company. This is a soft field for the $25K-$20K condition, so the drop for her is significant. That’s Just Hearsay (10) has been a speed and fade type in her last three. She draws the outside post and may be able to clear these from there. I’m not sure she’s good enough to carry her speed all the way, but I think she’ll be closer than she’s been in her last few. Sidney Sue (4) has run very well in her last two at long odds. Those starts are much better than her previous 16 tries. She’s in good enough form to consider, despite her tough overall record.
Race 4: Top Pick: 3
I’m looking for some closers in this race, as there seems to be a decent amount of speed signed on. Empires First Lady (3) might be one that could offer value in this race. I thought her last race was sneaky good, getting back on the grass at two turns for the first time as a three year old. The irons broke for Panaijo, but she still finished well to be 4th that day. Her last three tries on turf overall aren’t bad, but those races are scattered in between some rough outings on the dirt. She has some upside, and could very well go off at a higher number than her 8-1 morning line. NYRA invader Emma and I (9) has the best late speed according to Timeform, which certainly could make her a player today. She drops in class off the two and a half month layoff. Her best races are at one turn going 1 Mile and 1/16 at Belmont. Her only two turn races were not good. As long as the price doesn’t drop too low, I’m willing to take a chance on her. Kiss and Run (10) was bred to be a good one, but she has never lived up to her potential. He caught a yielding course with better at Saratoga last out and finished midpack. She’s run her best races on the front end, so the pace flow might not be the best in this spot. However, she’s consistent and better than several of these. Emirates Affair (5) is another one that wants to be on or near the lead. Her two turn efforts are respectable, but she’s never been really pushed hard in the early stages of those races.
Race 5: Top Pick: 6
How you play this race, depends on how you feel about the sudden and steep drop in class from Discretionary Marq (2). He beat open $25K claimers on the grass three back at Saratoga. He was 4th with open $32K claimers three weeks later. Four weeks after that, he was a wide 7th at Belmont when facing optional $45K/N2X New York bred allowance foes. Today, three weeks later, he’s entered in an open$6K-$5K claiming race. Atras usually is based in New York in the winter, so if you believe that he doesn’t want to a carry a turf horse in his barn going into the latter part of the fall meet, perhaps you could justify the drop. Personally, with races like this, I tend to err of the conservative side. I’ll try to beat him with longshots in the vertical wagers, but I’ll use him in the multi-race plays. I’ll make Cabinet Pik (6) my top pick, cutting back in distance after several two turn efforts. He can sprint though, hitting the board in 4 of 5 tries at this distance. Franco’s Team (7) was gaining late here last week in a sprint where there was much less front end speed. He’s in decent form and could be spotted in a race with a better pace flow. I’m typically cautious with horses sprinting for the first time on turf , especially ones that have exclusively run in two turn races. However, Youshouldbesolucky (8) does have a pedigree that leans sprint and he seems to get over the turf well. He’s another one that could be rolling late if there is a pace meltdown.
Race 6: Top Pick: 8
The nightcap is the featured N1X allowance race that looks to be chalky, at least on paper. High Limit Room (8) has been very good sprinting on the grass in three starts this year. He broke his maiden impressively at Monmouth in July. He went on to beat New York bred N1X allowance foes at Saratoga in September. He drew the rail in a 12 horse race at this level two weeks ago Monmouth. He ran well, but tired late after having to be used hard for the lead. There’s other speed in here, but he seems to be the quickest. Valmont (7) is another New York bred that’s exiting the same race as Discretionary Marq in the previous race. He has been running strong races in New York, mostly with state bred company. His figures suggest he’ll be very tough here. Perhaps a longshot worth considering in West Fork (10) coming in from Parx. He was never involved in the Turf Monster last out, but prior to that he closed well to be third at this level at Penn. There should be a better pace flow for him today. He could be the one flying late.