Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 5/24/26 – By Eric Solomon

It figures to be a soggy Sunday at the Jersey Shore as the races carded for the turf have already switched over to the dirt. Both the Cliff Hanger Stakes and the Miss Liberty Stakes were pushed back a week due to this impending weather. First post today is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Fillies and mares will start the day in a beaten $30K-$25K claiming race. I’m expecting Blue Moon Tide (#1) to defect from this race and face state bred foes tomorrow in a $100K claiming race where the purse is also $12K higher than this race. I don’t think that there’s a lot that separates the trio of shorter prices in this race. Kelly Breen and Paco Lopez have been on an absolute heater at the start of the meet and they’re teaming up with the morning line favorite, Mya Papaya (#3). Breen claimed her at Keeneland for $30K on a day where she finished third in open claiming company. She ships here and runs for the same claiming tag, but she’s getting significant class relief. Her dominating score two back at the Fair Grounds is going to likely push her number below even money at post time for this race. She’s clearly an A line play for me, but I’ll make Southern Lady (#5) the top pick. She broke her maiden two back at Tampa in a $25K-$20K maiden claiming race where she was eligible to run with the waiver. She ran in a three horse allowance race where the top two runners were in a different class. It was clear that was not going to do better than third, so she was eased up late. That lowered Beyer Figure is absolutely meaningless, but with a falling price on the favorite, her odds could stay right at that morning line figure or creep up a tick. I feel like there’s more value here on a horse that definitely has some upside. Both of these fillies do want to be forward, so I will backup with Alta Avenue (#6), who is the face that could be gaining ground in the late stages. Mya Papaya was about three lengths better than she was at Keeneland last time out. I do think the other two fillies have a higher ceiling for this race than this Tacitus filly, but the pace dynamics might give her a puncher’s chance.

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this beaten $5K claimer. The two short prices feel like the ones to beat in this race. Paco Lopez rides Beautiful Bolt (#6), who is trained by Kelly Breen. Both rider and trainer are blazing hot this month and they figure to be in position to win again with this six year old mare who is getting back on the dirt after struggling against better foes on the turf at Laurel in her last start. Allons (#5) is the logical alternative, making her first start off the Michael Pino claim. Pino has had tremendous success in the claiming game in the Mid-Atlantic region, so any time he sends out a new runner, they’re typically worth paying attention to. I am a little concerned that she’s running for or a lower tag than the amount she was claimed for the second start in a row though. 

Race 3:

I’ll try to beat the Paco Lopez express in this $12,500-$10,500 N2L claiming race by making My Man Money (#1) the top pick. He’s not great when he’s headed as he’s been beaten by double digit lengths in six of his first seven starts. However, he’s getting class relief after being over his head against allowance foes in his last start. He was a longshot winner in a $25K maiden claiming race over the winter at Gulfstream. This is probably the level of competition where this gelding belongs. Both No Denying (#3) and Foil (#5) were huge winners in their last starts, both scoring with $10K maiden claimers, and both horses winning by double digit lengths. No Denying beat three rivals here by a little more than 11 lengths and Foil did the same kind of thing when winning by 14 ½ lengths in his last start at Parx. I think the spot makes sense for both of these runners, so I’d make sure to have both on my tickets. 

Race 4:

This optional claiming/N2X allowance race is the first of three races to come off the grass this afternoon. Looking at the form lines, it’s very possible that we’re left with a three horse race, with strictly the three outside runners. Mr. Papagiorgio (#7) was a narrow winner here in N1X company on Haskell Day last year. He struggled in some of his subsequent races, but it seems that Rick Dutrow has the one back running his better races. He’s going to be a short price, but I think it’s going to be him getting his picture taken. 

Race 5:

There’s no doubt that Unsolved Mystery (#6) is going to be a tough favorite in this $5K starter allowance race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. She obviously thrives when she comes to Monmouth as she has three wins and a second place finish (by a nose) in four career starts on this oval. She comes into this race on a four race winning streak and if she was able to get her nose in front in that oh so close photo finish here last season, she’d be riding a six race winning streak. She will most likely be a sub-even money favorite in this race, however, she has never competed on a sloppy or sealed race course and by the looks of the forecast, that’s what she’s going to be dealing with this afternoon. Maybe she’ll love it and it won’t be an issue at all. However, at short odds, I want to make sure my bases are covered. Duela Dent (#2) can handle an off track and she has the speed to hang with the favorite in the early stages of the race. She was a handy winner on a sealed course here last season and she broke her maiden in her only other start on a sealed, wet track. She’s been on the sidelines since the end of November, and she’s never had to make a start with this much time in between races. However, the fact that she is entered in a starter allowance spot is encouraging. If the favorite starts to spin her wheels while pressing from the outside, I think this mare is the one that can benefit. 

Race 6:

This state bred maiden special weight race is tricky with the surface switch. There is some dirt form to go off for several of the runners, but most of the better races were one turn efforts for the bulk of this field. Jersey’s the Boss (#3) is the top pick for me, making his second start off the layoff. He wasn’t terrible when facing tougher foes last weekend in a state bred maiden allowance company. Rory Huston trains his half brother who was a winner in an off the turf race at this distance last summer. I struggle betting Sea Wizard horses in two turn races, but I do think both Sfogliatelle (#5) and Hillsborough Eight (#7) are worth considering in this race. Sfogliatelle has two career starts, both in turf routes. His debut at the Meadowlands last fall wasn’t terrible as he made some progress after encountering a decent bit of trouble. How he handles the dirt in his first start since being eased in a hurdle stakes race at Camden is absolutely anyone’s guess. Hillsborough Eight hasn’t been close in his first two tries, but he made some progress in his first start off the bench. The dam was stakes placed on this course on the dirt when going two turns.

Race 7:

Double Your Money (#1) feels like the one to beat in this optional $20K/N1X allowance race going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. He’s been sidelined since the beginning of the year where he faltered after getting forced into a wide trip at Parx. That broke a string of 14 consecutive races where this gelding finished in the money. He was good enough to win a Claiming Crown race back in November at Churchill, besting a strong 14 horse field. He can win on the front end or he can win from coming off the pace, but any way you slice it, I think he is the most likely winner of this race. House United (#4) has some efforts on off tracks that are worth noticing, especially with the projected weather forecast. His last effort at Keeneland was far from his best, but he was much sharper in New York two starts ago. 

Race 8:

We’ll close out the day with a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles in a race that was originally scheduled to be run over the turf course. I landed on one of the MTO runners, My Lil Flirt (#10) as the top pick in this race where all of the runners qualified under the N2L condition. The angle here is that this filly has been a different horse when she’s gone two turns on the dirt. She broke her maiden at Tampa three back with $16K maiden claimers. She cut back to seven furlongs when facing $20K claimers in a  race just for three year old fillies. She faltered that day, but she was much sharper when dropping to this level and getting back to two turns. The off-track is a question mark, so I do want coverage, but I think she’s one of only a few horses in this race that is best when routing on the dirt. More Vino Rosa (#6) might need to be a little faster, but she was sharp in her only start on a course labeled “good”. Her Tomlinson Figure is one of the higher ones in the field, which suggests that a sloppy course may be to her liking. Radar Loop (#5) seems to be a better runner at two turns, but this will be the first time that she’s trying that on the dirt (assuming she stays in the race). She wasn’t terrible on this course when she debuted here last summer and while she was well-beaten in her other dirt try, her figure would be competitive at this level. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 11/39 (28.2%), $57.30 ($1.47 ROI)

Data for Winners Last Start

A data point that I’ve been collecting over the last several years is trying to track which tracks/circuits are producing winners early on at the Monmouth Meet. Tampa runners have fared very well here over the last two seasons. There has also been a downward trend with New York shippers early in the meet here over the last few seasons, so that is something worth paying attention to as well in 2026.

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

2024-2025 Post Position Data From This Rail Setting

Posts 1-3: 21 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 19 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 4-6: 24 winners in 58 races in 2024 / 17 winners in 48 races in 2025

Posts 7-9: 13 winners in 54 races in 2024 / 12 winners in 41 races in 2025

Posts 10+: 0 winner from 13 races in 2024 / 0 winners in 4 races in 2025

24 Feet (In 2024, 14/54, 25.9% of the winners were CLOSERS)

2025 Data

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet