Monmouth Park Racing Preview – 7/9/21 – By Eric Solomon

Monmouth gets under way this week with their standard six race Friday card, highlighted by a strong optional claiming/allowance feature in the 2^nd race. Jose Ferrer continues to lead Paco Lopez by one race in the jockey standings, as they’ve separated themselves a bit from Isaac Castillo and Nik Juarez in third and fourth, respectively. In the trainer standing, Jose Delgado continues to be red hot at the current meet, amassing 16 victories with only 39 starters thus far (41%). He has a four win lead over Wayne Potts who is in second. Rains from the remnants of Hurricane Elsa are expected to start Thursday night and leave Friday by early afternoon. With a solid amount of rainfall forecasted for the area, I’ll handicap both of the turf races for the main track as well.

Race 1: Top Pick: 1 (Turf) / 4 (Dirt)

The opener, which is a $16K-$14K N4L claiming race for fillies and mares on the turf, might be the most competitive race of the day, assuming it stays on the turf. I could probably build a case for the majority of the field in this spot, as there are many in here that have shown the ability to run a race that could win at this level. I opted for Lake Parima (1) on top, as I think she’s the most consistent horse of the group. She’s hit the board in 11 of 13 career turf races, winning three of them. Her only poor efforts in her recent running lines are in races that have come off the turf. She ran well to lose in a three horse photo last out at Pimlico against open $12,500-$10,500 claimers. There’s a few horses that might want to go early in here and I think she can sit right off them and hopefully get first run in the stretch. There is the potential that this race could set up for a closer and Strong Gem (8) could be the benefactor. She cleared the N3L condition while racing for a $25K tag on this course on June 20^th. She’s a four year old daughter of Wicked Strong whose form is steadily improving. I think she’s very logical at this level. C’Est Mardi (6) wintered at Charles Town for Jesus Cruz after being claimed from a $12,500 N3L race here back in September. She’s been a winner on both turf and dirt, but her better races have come on the grass. Her three races on the lawn here last season were very good and any of those efforts would likely get her close here today.

On the main track, Luna Queen (4) becomes the one to beat. I’m not sure how many will remain in this race if the race switches surfaces, but she’ll probably have the best early foot of whoever is left. She won gate to wire in the slop in an off the turf race last out when winning at this same level of competition, despite being eligible for N3L company. Jaydine (5) also likes to be forwardly placed, and can run on the main track. Just like today, she was drawn directly outside of Luna Queen when they faced off two starts back. She struggled when going trying to chase her that day, and backed out of the picture. Paco Lopez gets the call today and may try to turn the tables by being more aggressive. Adwaa (10) could be the beneficiary of an over-aggressive ride from Paco Lopez aboard Jaydine. While her current form isn’t the greatest, her effort here two back in an off the turf N1X allowance wasn’t bad, suggesting she’ll fare better at this level.

Race 2: Top Pick: 3

The feature race, which kicks off the Friday Pick-5, is an optional $30K claiming/N2X allowance contest for fillies and mares at 6 Furlongs on the main track. Of the six that are entered, two are making their first starts of the year and another pair have already won races at the current meet. I like, Tutti Bevenutti (3), who is one of the two previous winners at the meet, to pull off the mild upset. She was dazzling in her debut last year at Laurel, but she hasn’t been that fast in a race since. However, she still has run quality efforts in all of her four career starts. She was third here last year, faltering at 1-5 in N1X allowance company in July. Something was amiss with her that day as she didn’t reappear on the racetrack until April of this year when she was second to a next out winner at Pimlico. She cleared the N1X condition in an off the turf allowance race here at 5 and ½ Furlongs back in May. She’s now in her third race of her current form cycle and should be sitting on her best effort. There’s not much speed here and the two most dangerous rivals both seem to want a little more distance than the 6 Furlongs they’re getting today. I think she has many advantages here, while also likely going off as the second or third choice in the wagering. Union Maiden (6) will likely be sent off as the post time favorite for Chad Brown, seeing as how she has the best pedigree, best speed figures, and the best human connections in this field. She’s a four year old daughter of Union Rags that cost her owners $425,000 at the OBS Sale in March of 2019. She broke her maiden going a one turn mile at Churchill in her third career start at Churchill last June. She ran a solid race at Saratoga last summer before clearing the N1X condition at Keeneland in the fall. She ended her three year old campaign with a fifth place finish at Churchill against a solid field at this level. She makes her first start since today, and while there’s not as much talent in this field as she faced last out, the pace scenario is not ideal, and I think she’s more effective at 7 Furlongs instead of 6.

Race 3: Top Pick: 1

It’s hard to look past Pogi (1) in this New Jersey bred maiden special weight for three year olds and upward. He has three consecutive second place finishes, losing in tight photos in his last two starts on this oval. He has soundly defeated many of these before, and there’s not many newcomers in here that are going excite many of the bettors. It seems like this race will be his turn to graduate from the maiden  ranks. The one first time starter that is mildly interesting, is Zealous Bay (7), who is a four year old gelding sired by Don Six. He’ll likely take a little bit of money in the pools as Paco Lopez takes the call for connections that haven’t started a horse in a thoroughbred race in at least the last year and half, if ever. His works are interesting, drilling a 4 Furlong work a few weeks ago at Parx in 46:3. My guess is the track was playing pretty fast that morning or the clocker was feeling a little generous, as that speedy drill was only the 4^th best work of the morning. Regardless, if anyone knocks off the heavy favorite, he would likely be the candidate to do so.

Race 4: Top Pick: 8

Ten fillies and mares line up to go 1 Mile and 70 yards on the main track in this $7,500-$6,500 multi-conditioned claiming contest. Nine of the ten entered qualify using the N2L condition, while one horse, Mi Cleopatra and I (9) is the only two time winner in the field. However, her current form leaves a lot to be desired. This is a race where I’ll want some coverage. My hope is that One Night Stand (8) will be a more effective horse at two turns, as she’s doing that for the first time on the dirt today. She broke her maiden three back in an off the turf $16K maiden claiming contest at Gulfstream, going 7 Furlongs. She ran her best speed figure in her only two turn race on the grass two starts ago. She came here and faced better, while going 6 Furlongs last out. The winner of that race, Nora Radd, went on to win again at that same level last week. She had some issues at the break that day, but she could be eligible to improve if Corrales can secure a decent position early on. Paddy’s Princess (1) ran a strong race in her first career two turn effort last time on this oval. She faded late to be second behind an open lengths winner.  She draws the rail and could likely try to carve out slow early fractions again. I expect her to have more fight in the stretch in her second try at two turns. Our West Indy (2) dominated a poor field at the $12,500 maiden claiming level here last month, drawing off to win by 13 lengths. She faces winners for the first time, and this is likely the right level of competition to do so. However, I think she’ll be overbet off her last effort, so the value might not be as it should. I can draw a line through the dull effort from Facts Only (6) at this level last out, where she was a total no show. Her effort two back with maiden claiming company at Gulfstream was strong, and would likely be enough to beat this group. She was claimed by Wayne Potts in her last start, so there’s reason to believe that she move forward off that effort.

Race 5: Top Pick: 4 (Turf) / 10 (Dirt)

$20K-$18K maiden claimers dash 5 Furlongs on the turf to start the late double. Much like with Pogi earlier in the card, this race kind of feels like it’s Beach Warrior’s (4) turn to graduate. He drops out of maiden special weight company and back into the maiden claiming ranks. He was 5^th, beaten 4+ lengths last out in maiden allowance company where the 3^rd place finisher, Abe Honestly, came back to win easily in maiden special weight company here on Sunday. He was knocking on the door with better at Tampa and should be tough on the drop down. Look Out Lambo (9) will need help to get into this race as he’s the first one on the also eligible list in this spot. He’s run five races, all going one mile or more, one of which came on the grass. His grass effort was his best try by far, which was also his debut. He’s never gone this short, which is a concern, but he’s sired by one of the better turf sprint sires out there, Street Boss, and he’s facing a field where few have a ton of upside. Make a Move (6) has four starts, all on the turf. Two of those starts are sprints and those are his best career efforts. He’s been on the shelf since February, but he’s run well while fresh in the past. He adds blinkers in hopes of getting more involved in the race sooner. Sea City (11) is another runner cutting back in distance, that is trying a sprint situation for the first time. He is dropping in class, while shipping back from Belmont where he was overmatched most recently when going 10 Furlongs. This race might be a bit short, but he’s certainly logical if he can draw into the body of the field.

This race totally changes complexion if it comes off the grass. There are six also-eligible horses that would be able to compete if they wanted to. I think Pharoahswheel (10) is interesting if he does go. He has three career tries, all with maiden special weight company, one on the dirt and two on the turf at the Fair Grounds. He debuted on the main track against a very strong field, where the winner, Warrant, earned a 79 Beyer speed figure, and went to win the Texas Derby at Lone Star on Memorial Day. Pharoahswheel was nowhere close to the front that day, but he’ll be getting significant class relief if this race comes on the grass, while making his first start in three and a half months. Jose Camejo has had some live runners at the meet that have paid well. Meetyouatthedelta (8) was third beaten 10 in the slop in his second career start at the $20K maiden claiming level last out. Paco Lopez gets the call today and there should be less competition for the early lead, which should benefit him. Jama Dillon (12) is second off the layoff and has some efforts on the main track at longer distances that would play well at this level. Wild Czar (1) has only known the dirt in four career tries. He, too, is second off the layoff, and he showed improvement after more starts last year. He’s been running exclusively with state bred maiden special weight company, so he does get some class relief in this open maiden claiming race, as long as the race comes off the turf.

Race 6: Top Pick: 2

Fillies and mares that have never won three times, running with a $12,500-$10,500 tag close the Friday card. Jose Delgado has a knack for taking horses that are in bad form and getting them to turn things around. Tuff Bird (2) has been sprinting in her last several races, getting away from her best form. Shhe has run two turns before and has done so quite well. I’m expecting her to get back to her better races, now that she’s joining this red hot outfit. Delgado has a 37% winning percentage with horses stretching out from sprints since the beginning of 2020, and he’s a perfect 3-3 with the horses that are stretching out from 2 or more sprints in a row. Misty Taste (3) is the likely favorite here after beating a weak field with lesser rivals last month. A few principal players scratched out of that race that day, leaving a very soft group for her to beat up on. She moves up in class, but is second off the layoff, so there’s reason to believe this four year old filly could take another step forward Kelly Breen. Topo Grigio (1) was last seen at the end of January at Gulfstream where she defeated $12,500 N2L claimers and was claimed by Saffie Joseph. She shipped here last month and has four drills over the local oval. Apprentice rider, Derbe Glass, fresh off her first ever professional riding victory last week, get the call.

Friday Pick 5 – $48.00 Ticket:

Race 2: 3, 6

Race 3: 1

Race 4: 1, 2, 6, 8

Race 5: 4, 6, 9 (AE), 11 (AE) (TURF) / 1, 8, 10, 12 (DIRT)

Race 6: 1, 2, 3

Meet Stats: 48/176 (Top Pick Winners) – $326.40 / $1.85 ROI per $2 win bet