Monmouth Park Racing Preview – 8/14/21 – By Eric Solomon

The Saturday card is highlighted by the Incredible Revenge Stakes for fillies and mares, sprinting 5 and ½ Furlongs on the turf course. Incredible Revenge was a great story, as she was purchased for only $800 as a yearling, but went on to win 26 of 57 career starts, earning over $600,000. She was a mainstay in the mid-Atlantic region from 1995-2000. I think that race could be ripe for an upset today, along with a few other spots on the card. Keep an eye on some of the Parx shippers that are running today and could be entered over the next few weeks, as they are on a short break from racing across the Delaware River in Bensalem, PA. Two of the six winners last night last were Parx shippers, and I think some of the shippers are live on the card today.

Race 1: Top Pick: 4

The day begins with multi-conditioned $12,500-$10,500 claimers going six furlongs on the main track. Both Uncaptured Soldier (3) and Run Fast (7) are coming out of a softer race at this condition thirteen days ago, where both horses took a lot of money at the windows. Quintarelli, who had one win in 50 starts prior to that race, woke up and ran a near career best effort that day. While that result was improbable, both horses ran their race that. While both are live here, I’m looking for Noble Endeavor (4) to get the job done for Butch Reid and Frankie Pennington. He broke his maiden on this course in the slop back in May. His first race facing winners came at the $12,500 N2L level at Parx last month, where he closed well to lose by a neck. He’s started the year in the best form of his career and he fits well from a class and pace standpoint. Savatiano (2) makes his first local start after being claimed by Guadalupe Preciado last out on May 31^st. He’s been given a little time off after a solid third place finish with slightly better horses ($12,500 N3L) at Parx. He has faced better fields in his last three starts since being claimed after winning at this level in March. He’s one of two three year olds in the field with multiple wins. Uncaptured Soldier is the other one, and he’s definitely worth including in the multi-race exotics. However, my knock on him is that he was definitely softened up in an early duel with Fifty Cents (6) last out. That one is back, and there’s also some speed to his inside with Sit Down Grandpa (1). He has not run well in races with a lot of pace pressure, and there’s more early speed signed on today on paper than there was thirteen days ago when he was hammered down to the 3-10 favorite. Wayne Potts claimed him out of that race, so there’s reason to believe that he’ll be a short price again. I think there’s value trying to beat him in the vertical plays. Run Fast (7) has gradually improved while finishing third in three straight starts at the current meet. He finished a half of a length behind Uncaptured Soldier last time out, and a length behind him two back. With the added pace pressure, he may be able to get in front of him today, however, he hasn’t proven that he’s been comfortable making one run coming from off the pace, which might be his best trip today.

Race 2: Top Pick: 3

New Jersey bred, optional $30K claiming/N2X allowance horses, going one mile on the main track, start the Early Pick-4 here. I thought Target Tales (3) was a sneaky longshot in the John J. Reilly Stakes last month, going off at 25-1. He ran on well to make it in the bottom of the superfecta, behind the three more accomplished favorites that day. He makes his third start of the meet and his first start at two turns. His one turn mile races at Gulfstream at the Championship Meet this past winter were solid, and would likely be good enough to win here. There’s not a ton of pace signed on here, so I think he’ll be closer to the lead than he was last out when they clicked off a 44:3 half mile in a six furlong sprint where they stopped the clock in 1:09 flat. Irish Meadow (4) invades from Parx after running a decent 4^th with a solid $25K starter allowance field last month. He is winless in his last ten starts, mostly at Parx, and all facing open company. His last win was in October 2020, which was the last time he faced state bred foes. He beat an OC/N1X field by three widening lengths that day. He was closer to the pace in the race than he has been in his most of his starts with open company, and he should be able to navigate a similar trip today with little speed signed on. Amatteroftime (1) returns to the main track after running 4^th in the Irish War Cry Stakes for NJ breds on the turf three weeks ago. You have to go back to 2019 when he last ran a two-turn race on the main track. He has only two starts at the two-turn mile and both of those races were wins. Paco Lopez picks up the mount, which is a plus since he continues to be red hot at the meet. However, many of his wins are coming with heavy favorites, and I’m not certain this horse is the best horse in the race. Chances are the value probably is not going to be what it should be on him as a result.

Race 3: Top Pick: 9

I think there are many ways to go in this $30K-$25K multi-conditioned claiming race. I am going to try get a little value on the horse on the outside, Positive Power (9), and hope that she can duplicate her off the pace rally that produced her maiden breaking win on this course last year. She has only one win in 24 starts, which is a concern, but at longer odds, I can forgive that, as many of those losses came against fields that were significantly better. She was a length and a half behind Isla Bonita (7) two starts ago. Her rival had the much easier trip that day. Her recent form has been muddied somewhat with several off the turf efforts. This will be her first turf start since being claimed by Claudio Gonzalez, who has a much higher winner percentage than her previous trainer. Isla Bonita is the deserving favorite, after winning her last two, in two very different ways. She was near the lead two back when she beat $16K-$14K multi-conditioned claimers, running a career top figure. She exceeded that figure in her most recent start when, rallying from off the pace in a 14 horse contest at the same level on the Haskell undercard. She definitely is improving, and it could be lights out for this field if she improves again. She does make her first start off the claim today while moving up the class ladder, but Jose Ferrer retains the mount. Map Em Up (5) was a winner at this level two starts ago and certainly could be a player, coming back to this condition after trying allowance company last out. She faced a deep field in a race that was also on the Haskell undercard, while finishing second to last that day. She fits here and is very playable at her 9-2 morning line figure. Speed Salsa (3) was about a length behind Map Em Up in that race two back. She stayed at this level, but cut back to a five furlong sprint. She ran well, but that distance proved to be a little short, when she rallied to get second behind a nice filly in Exact, who won her second race in a row that day. Garner State Park (6) was a little disappointing in her local debut, finishing 6^th at this level, when facing winners for the first time. She has never run a bad race, getting close in her first five starts before breaking her maiden in start number six. I think she’s better than her last, but I think some of the others are a little better than her right now. If her odds float over the 7-2 morning line figure, she’ll be more appealing.

Race 4: Top Pick: 3

This is a wild $5K starter allowance race at 1 Mile and 70 Yards. I think Coach Adams (3) is a strong play here at 5-1. He was very good two back, dominating a multi-conditioned $5K claiming race, finishing 4 and ½ lengths in front of Don’t Poke The Cat (6). He faced a better field last out when facing optional $16K claiming/$8K starter allowance foes. He was making his first start since being claimed by Wayne Potts that day and he didn’t run well. He typically likes to be a lot closer to the pace, and he was last going into the first turn. There was a good amount of speed slotted to the outside in that race, so perhaps the strategy was to try to keep him off the pace. Hector Diaz wasn’t riding him hard at all in the early stages that day, when he was last going into the first turn. He comes in here, where there could be a good amount of speed again, as there are several sprinters trying to get the two-turn distance here. Isaac Castillo, who rode him to victory two back, reunites with him here. Relishment (2) has been in good form, winning three of his last five, and hitting the board in the other two races. He closed well to beat time restricted $12,500-$10,500 claimers last out, when rider Albin Jimenez showed great patience when letting the hot pace develop before getting up late to spring the 16-1 upset. He got the jump on Zitman (1) who went to post at 4-5 in that race. I think Relishment is trending in the right direction and could offer a lot of value again. Zitman gets the rail after a wide draw last out. He was left with too much work to do in that race, where a there was a decent pace in front of him. He makes his first start for Jose Camejo today who has won at a 21% clip off the claim. He feels like a horse to cover with on some deeper plays, as he is live, but is likely to offer little value here. Cobh (7) was a horse that I wrote about in the Horses to Watch section of ITM Newsletter a few weeks ago. He overcame a miserable start that day to rally well to be 2^nd, well in front of the third place finisher. However, that race was with a soft field for the multi-conditioned $5K claiming condition. This is a huge step up in class for a horse that hasn’t run a race fast enough to beat this level in over two years. I’ll just be watching him today.

Race 5: Top Pick: 3

The final leg of the Win-Early Pick-5 is a $20K-$18K N3L claiming race that looks like there’s a clear favorite. She Broke My Heart (3) hopefully won’t do that, especially if I’m singled to her in the last leg. She was a game 4^th when trying allowance company last out. Prior to that, she was dominant in her two previous turf sprints here and a Tampa. She won both of those races by open lengths, which isn’t easy to do in a turf sprint. She can do it on the front end, but she showed that she can also be an effective closer when she closed well along the rail to miss by less than a length last out with a much saltier field. Temperance (6) is the main threat, but she was beaten over 4 lengths by the top pick last out. She has been more competitive at this level, and she’s definitely better than her last race. However, I think there’s just considerably more upside with She Broke My Heart as an improving three year old filly, as opposed to this five year old mare, who is consistent, but doesn’t have a very high ceiling.

Win Early Pick-5: $45.00 Ticket

Race 1:  2, 3, 4

Race 2:  1, 3, 4

Race 3:  3, 5, 6, 7, 9

Race 4:  2, 3

Race 5:  3

Race 6: Top Pick: 7

Two year old maidens run with a $40K-$30K claiming tag here. The Ghost of N Y (7) was another horse that I wrote about for the ITM Horses to Watch List. I thought he had an educational debut against a nice Kelly Breen first time starter, when racing with $25K-$20K maiden claimers in his debut. He blew the break that day, but traveled nicely down the backstretch and finished with interest, well clear of the third place finisher. He moves up in class today, but I think he ran well enough last time to play him back here. Act of Valor (6) was well backed at the maiden special weight level in his debut last month. He caught a muddy track and was a little slow into stride. He got moving late after going wide on the turn. He finished well enough to get 4^th. He’s a homebred for Gary and Mary West and was sired by a young sire, American Freedom, with a modest $6K stud fee. As a result, the drop in class in his second start is a non-issue to me. Shanghai Warrior (4) is the most interesting first time starter in my eyes. Michael Dini owns and trains this two year old gelded son of Shanghai Bobby. He had a sharp 4F drill two weeks ago, signaling that he is ready to make his debut. Dini is 4-21 with first time starters in maiden claiming races since 2020, boasting a positive ROI.

Race 7: Top Pick: 9

The Jersey Shore 6 starts here with a N1X allowance race at 5 and ½ Furlongs on the turf. There are plenty of questions for several horses in this race. I thought King James (9) was a sneaky longshot in a much tougher allowance race at this level at Saratoga back on 7/28 at Saratoga. However, he had a less than ideal trip that day, never really getting over from his outside post, and going four wide all the way around the turn, before getting jostled around in the stretch drive and finishing 7^th. Jerkens brings him down to the Jersey Shore for some class relief in his second start against winners. He overcame some trouble to get the job done with maiden special weight company two back at Belmont. He draws wide again, which isn’t ideal, but several seem forwardly placed, so it will be up to Juarez to try to find a spot to allow him to save some ground. Valmont (2) fits here from a speed figure standpoint, most recently running with New York breds in state bred optional $45K claiming/N2X allowance company in New York. We’ve continued to see New York breds leave New York and run competitive races in open company here. Jockey Jalon Samuel, who only has two wins in 2021, in scheduled to come in from New York to get his first ride over this track this year. Nothing Better (6) went off form for a few starts after showing some promise as a turf sprinter at the end of his three year old campaign last year. He dropped to claiming company and he used that race to get right, dominating that group by 4+ lengths. While he doesn’t have to be on the lead, he does his best work when he’s engaged early in the race. His races on this course where his equipment has stayed in tact have been very good. Abe Honestly (5) is the one I’m not sure what to make of in this spot. Draw a line through his last where he had no interest in running his best effort on the main track in an off the turf contest at this level. Two back, he was excellent, when dominating a soft, scratch depleted, maiden special weight race on the turf. His two other turf sprints before that were good efforts, but nowhere close to the race he ran two starts ago. I’m planning on covering with him on some of my deeper tickets, but I’ll be watching the tote board for some more clues on him.

Race 8: Top Pick: 2

This is another tough race where there are many legitimate questions for many of the horses that are entered. This race is screaming for a longshot, but the five longer prices here really don’t offer much to be excited about. Bold Confection (2) had three starts in Louisiana at the Fair Grounds over the winter. She was a strong second in her debut, beaten by a next out winner, Save, earning a very solid speed figure. She caught a sloppy track in her next start and was dead last when trying two turns in a loaded maiden special weight race that was won by Pauline’s Pearl. That one went on to win the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn two starts later. She went back to a sprint, and faded badly in a very fast maiden special weight race on the Louisiana Derby undercard. She’s since been moved to the barn of John Servis, who has her working well over Parx. I would prefer to see Frankie Pennington, who rides regularly for Servis and is named to ride a horse in the first race, riding this one instead of Abner Adorno, however, I’ll make her the top pick in hopes that she can get back to the race she ran in her debut. Miss Makayla (5) and Perfect Choice (9) are two three year old fillies scheduled to make their debuts for Jerry Hollendorfer and Kelly Breen, respectively. Both are well bred horses that have been working well over the local oval. Their works are similar, and both have a chance to be competitive. With little separating them on paper, I’ll side with the better price, Miss Makayla over Perfect Choice, but I think both could be prominent. Milestone Payment (1) makes her dirt debut for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables after a pair of turf sprints to start off her career. She is bred up and down for turf, so I’m not sure what to expect from this experiment. Her works on the main track aren’t bad, and this isn’t the deepest group. I’d prefer for the price to float up a little over the 3-1 morning line figure though.

Race 9: Top Pick: 8

The late Pick-4 starts with a $16K-$14K multi-conditioned claiming contest on the turf, featuring several horses that don’t like to win. Nine of the them that entered for the turf, entered under the N2L condition. I like the only multiple winner in this field, Dennard (8) to spring the upset at 8-1. He was claimed from Jamie Ness by Phil Aristone when he cleared the N2L condition last out with a solid victory on the main track ten days ago. He has only one turf start in eight career tries, and at the time, that figure was a career best. He was second in that maiden race, where he was moving well late to get up for second. He has improved since that effort and he finds a soft field for this condition. I think the 8-1 price is great value if he stays around that number. Couch Dreams (3) is another improving three year that is dropping in class. He is coming out of the same race at Parx that the morning line favorite, Hard Count (7) is coming out of. Hard Count finished about a length in front of him that day. He broke his maiden on the grass for trainer Robert Mosco, who is also a Parx based guy. He’ll have to improve to win this race, but as a three year old, that kind of improvement is certainly possible. Hard Count has been backed heavily in his last two, getting close, but still searching for that elusive second victory. He has been second ten times and third another five in 30 career starts. He often gets close, but hasn’t been able to win since dropping to face a very soft $20K maiden claiming field at Gulfstream back in 2020. He set a dawdling pace two starts back while holding an easy lead with starter allowance foes, only to be caught late. Perhaps the class relief will help, and I respect that he’s usually close, but it’ll be hard pill to swallow to take a short price on him. Candy Kingdom (1) may have been a one-hit wonder, running a monster effort three back on the grass to be a close second at long odds with a good field of open claimers. He was second in an off the turf race two back and ran an even 5^th at this level last time out. He draws the rail and might be worth tossing on your tickets if his odds float over the 10-1 ML figure, as I don’t think there’s that much separating him and some of the other shorter prices.

Race 10: Top Pick: 4

Multi-conditioned $5K claimers go one mile in a field where everyone qualifies for the time restricted, non-winners of one race in six month condition. It’s not very creative, but I’m not seeing a lot from the longer priced horses here, so I’m on the three shorter prices. Painter’s Pride (4) is my top pick, while dropping slightly in class from $8K-$7K N4L company. Those races have drawn tougher fields that what he’s up against today and he’s been beaten by next out winners in his last two. His first two starts at the meet haven’t been bad, finishing third in both. There’s not a ton of pace signed on, and he likes to sit off the pace. However, with the rider change to Mychal Sanchez, I’m expecting to see him placed a little closer than he’s been in his last few starts. Hardcore Folklore (8) was disappointing in his first two starts at the meet. He was a respectable 4^th last out against a better field for this condition when making his first start for trainer Jose Camejo. Camejo opts to take the blinkers off for his second start for this barn, which was been a solid angle, winning 26% of the time when doing so. He has better efforts on his resume and certainly could take a step forward here. Here Comes Doc (2) is the morning line favorite for the first place trainer/jockey combo of Wayne Potts and Paco Lopez. He made his first start here last month with a better field, finishing 5^th while being wide pretty much every step of the way. He gets an upgraded rider and post while dropping in class. The price will be short, and he’s probably the most likely winner. However, I’m thinking the odds disparity will be greater than the talent disparity here.

Race 11: The Incredible Revenge Stakes: Top Pick: 8

Fillies and mares sprint 5 and ½ furlongs on the lawn in the featured $100K Incredible Revenge Stakes today. Miss Auramet (1) and Introduced (7) were separated by a slim nose on the wire in a solid allowance race here last month. Miss Auramet was the heavy favorite in that five furlong contest, and the rail draw was probably what cost her the win. Another horse was a little quicker early on, and Introduced got the golden spot, with Miss Auramet being down on the rail. Lopez had to wait to angle her out, while Mejia, aboard Introduced got first run and was able to narrowly hold on for the win. I think there’s more speed signed on in this stakes and the 5 and ½ Furlong distance is another tricky wrinkle here. I really like No Mercy Percy (8) to pull the upset here. She closed well to be a decent third, less than a length behind Miss Auramet, when going five furlongs in the Goldwood Stakes back in June. She tried graded stakes company at 1 Mile and 1/8 last out in the Matchmaker Stakes, where she set the pace, before finishing last of six. I think sprinting of the turf is what she does best, and I think while some of the others are struggling to get the extra half furlong, she’ll be closing stoutly. Jockey Robert Mitchell hasn’t had a lot of chances, but he has ridden well with some longshots at this meet, and getting the call in a stakes race is a great opportunity for him. Miss Auramet is definitely the one to beat, but she’ll be a short price once again here. She won the Lightning City Stakes on turf at Tampa and the Politely Stakes here when it was rained off the turf in May. She has never gone this distance on the grass though, and her one start at six furlongs on the grass at Belmont proved to be too long. Like No Mercy Percy, Introduced was also last ridden by Tomas Mejia. Mejia is not yet medically cleared to ride following a spill here last month, so Albin Jimenez gets the mount on her. She got back on track with a perfect ride and trip last out, and will likely need everything to break her way again to be a repeat winner. She’s worth covering as she does have the ability to sit off some speed that I’m not convinced will be hanging around late.

Race 12: Top Pick: 4

The Saturday nightcap is a $12,500-$10,500 maiden claiming race at six furlongs.  Diamente de Oro (4) drops to the lowest level in his four race career. He was 4^th two starts back with $25K-$20K maiden claimers, where the second place finisher broke his maiden in his subsequent try. He was outclassed in a tough maiden special weight race at two turns last time out where a slow start certainly didn’t help his cause at almost 50-1. He cuts back to a sprint and gets serious class relief, while reuniting with Isaac Castillo. I think many of these will be going in the wrong direction in the final 1/8 of a mile, setting things up nicely for him. Hotel Charlie (6) is the morning line favorite for Jose Delgado based off his efforts at Aqueduct this spring. He was dull with similar in a five furlong race last time out, faltering as the 3-2 favorite. He should have a forward move in him and is probably more comfortable at six furlongs. Delgado has been profitable when sending horses out in their second start off a brief layoff, winning 34% of the time while boasting a positive ROI.

Meet Stats: 89/320 (Top Pick Winners) – $560.70 / $1.75 ROI per $2 win bet