Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Friday, March 18, 2022

AQUEDUCT – 3/18/22

RACE 1: 6-3-1

#6 KHULUQ looks like a bit too much for these returning off a break following a dull effort at 2/5 in January.  She showed real potential in her first two starts and should be a factor from the opening bell today.  Trainer Chad Brown and jockey Manny Franco have has serious success together of late.

RACE 2: 4-3-5-2

#4 MR. PETE goes first off a claim by Greg DiPrima following an improved effort last time out against slightly lesser foes.  He should get a good trip sitting off the pace with a couple of serious speedsters to his outside.  The back class he possesses is also a factor.

RACE 3: 3-6-4-2

It just seems as if #3 LIVE IN FIVE is too much for these.  She enters off an improved effort and now goes 2nd off a claim by the underrated barn of Charlie Baker.  The lead is hers for the taking and these aren’t the types that do well passing horses.

RACE 4: 6-2-3-1

There’s nothing exciting about picking #6 BETSY BLUE in here given that she’ll be a short price and that she gives up a great deal as a closing type.  There’s some pace in here, but the tempo will hardly boil over.  That’ll make it pivotal for Jose Lezcano to keep her close.

RACE 5: 3-4-7-5

#3 CHAYSENBRYN is a late runner who should get a decent setup this afternoon.  She has some of the best form of any participant in this bunch and the price should be fair in spite of her morning line.  Look for her in the late stages of this affair.

RACE 6: 6-5-1-7

The most interesting horse on this card is #6 EMPEROR’S CAUSE.  He has the classic set of “dirtied up” past performances given he’s been against the grain of the track in 2 of his last 3 and stuck on a wet track two starts back.  The pace should set up well for him and he represents the best value at his morning line price of 6-1.

RACE 7: 7-5-3-1

#7 LEELOO gets Lasix for the first time today and ran a race two starts back that would wallop this bunch.  She figures to get an ideal outside stalking trip today and will be a square price given the competitive nature of this field.  This will, at the last, determine whether she’s a sloppy track lover.

RACE 8: 7-5-1-4

This is a very interesting claim on #8 JAKE ROCKS given the success Gustavo Rodriguez has had off the claim.  He is 46% with dirt runners first off of claims over the last 5 years, good for a $5.36 ROI.  The outside post will enable him to stalk the favorite #5 PRISONER.

RACE 9: 3-4-8-7

#3 CINDERELLA’S CAUSE was first off a claim by a low percentage barn last time out and immediately improved.  She should be a stalk and pounce threat today given the suspect speed signed up.  Historically, this filly’s prior trainer has had horses claimed off of him, and they generally improve next time out

RACE 10: 2-3-4-8

#2 RAW COURAGE drops in for a tag, which is likely where he should be class-wise, and also exits a performance where he was on a dead rail.  He’s getting Lasix for the first time today, and that will only help his chances.  Settle on this one in an uninspiring group.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Further reading

Cross Country Pick 5 5.28.2022

Cross Country Pick 5 5.28.2022

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