Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Friday, November 26, 2021

AQUEDUCT – 11/26/21

RACE 1: 10-6-5-4

With the opener coming off the turf, #10 VIKING ZIM is a very likely winner given his effort two starts back.  Racing wide and against the grain of the surface, this son of Mshawish made a huge middle move to reach contention before flattening out late.  A similar effort makes him a winner.

RACE 2: 5-6-1-11

#5 PROFUSION has simply run better than the majority of his rivals in this field.  He is in good form having narrowly missed last time out and should be in a good spot just off the pace again.  The only real negative is his jockey, and that is not enough to dissuade.

RACE 3: 7-5-4-8

The recent efforts from #7 MEZCAL make her clearly the one to beat for trainer Todd Pletcher.  She showed potential from her first turf race and finally put everything together to win last time out. Pletcher sports a solid record (23%, $2.04 ROI) with turf routers exiting maiden wins.

RACE 4: 4-3-1-6

#4 FLOWER POINT ran a bang-up race last time out going shorter and now gets an additional sixteenth of a mile with which to work.  While not positive the added ground is what she wants, she has the right running style in a pitifully weak running of this event and should be rolling late.

RACE 5: 2-7-3-5

#2 DOUBLEPOUR is a late runner who was compromised by a wide trip and slow pace in his last start.  He can be a much bigger factor late today at a fraction of the price he went off when last seen in late October.  The likelihood of a decent pace in here only helps his chances.

RACE 6: 5-6-14-1

#5 TOUGH STREET is bred mainly for dirt and showed enough on debut to be given extra consideration here.  She showed good early speed and wound up checking in second behind a runaway winner that afternoon.  Look for an aggressive ride aboard a horse who clearly has ability.

RACE 7: 3-9-1-8

#3 JERUSALEM GATES was compromised by a slow break from the gate last time out in a race that was completely dominated on the front end.  He wound up making a decent move to check in third and now goes 2nd off a lengthy layoff for trainer Linda Rice.  If there is any pace to speak of, he’ll be in line to capitalize at a solid price.

RACE 8: 7-6-8-5

There’s a chance of a slight upset here with #7 SAFE CONDUCT, who can get the same trip he enjoyed when he scored an big win in early May at Belmont.  This colt had no chance going 12 panels over a bog at Woodbine last time out and figures to have much more in his favor this afternoon.  Should #6 NEVER SURPRISED get any early pressure, it will help this colt.

RACE 9: 4-5-8-3

#4 CRAZY BEAUTIFUL was a game winner two back against lesser at Churchill and now figures to get a similar trip from just off the pace.  This filly followed up that score with a solid effort on turf and is clearly in good form for Kenny McPeek.  She has the tactical speed to stay close and an aggressive pilot in the irons.

RACE 10: 9-4-5-10

#9 BOURBON MISSION faced considerably tougher competition last time out and wound up chasing the pace before tiring.  He’s better when able to lay back and make one run, and there’s ample early speed in this affair to set up that stretch bid.  You’ll get a solid price as well.

AQUEDUCT FALL STATS: 55-14-9-5                $130.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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