Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Friday, September 30, 2022

AQUEDUCT 09/30/22 

RACE 1: 6-7-3-5

The drop in for a tag for #6 ORDER OF MAGNITUDE is significant in that he’ll face weaker foes than he has thus far in his career.  He has tactical speed and was no match for the routers he faced late last month.  This is a realistic spot class-wise and he drew well on the outside.

RACE 2: 7-6-3-2

#7 MAIL ORDER was hindered by a poor break from the gate last time out and now bids to rebound.  She should get an ideal trip just outside of #6 THE IMPORTANT ONE, who has shown she is a bit better on dirt.  The best races Mail Order ran prior to her last start came when she had a target to chase early.

RACE 3: 8-4-6-2

#8 BAVARIAN CRÈME had little go her way last time out when wide throughout that one mile event.  She might just be better going shorter, she can be a threat from just off the pace today with the blinkers going on and the price here will be more than fair.

RACE 4: 4-2-6-7

#4 ACTUALIZE is the one to beat getting back in for a tag for trainer Charlie Baker.  He’s wasting no time putting him back into the maiden claiming ranks after a poor recent run against MSW foes.  The lead is his for the taking and he will find this company much more to his liking.

RACE 5: 6-1-5-3

#6 HAPPY FARM goes first off a claim by Mike Miceli after losing a pitched battle with hardened veteran Greeley and Ben last time out.  This gelding has held his form nicely throughout 2022 and is capable of sitting just off the pace in a race with a great deal of confirmed speed.  Miceli is 25% with dirt sprinters first off the claim ($2.03 ROI) over the last five years.

RACE 6: 10-2-1-4

#10 MOONAGE DAYDREAM is the one to bet second time out after getting bumped at the start and going through the motions last time out.  She gets a massive rider upgrade to Flavien Prat and should improve based on her recent morning drills.  Trainer Jorge Abreu has worked her with Miss Grillo-bound stakes placed filly Georgees Spirit.

2022 Breeders Cup Wagering Guide

RACE 7: 4-7-6-9

#4 MARVELOUS MAUDE is dropping significantly in class for trainer Chad Brown after trying graded stakes company last time out.  She is a late running type who’ll be helped by an expected solid pace in here.  Her recent form prior to the class jump was very strong and this is the right spot for her NY bred stakes debut.

RACE 8: 3-5-6-2

#3 WINTER POOL goes first off a claim by Dave Duggan after racing wide and checking in third against similar foes last time out.  Duggan is 22% with dirt starters first off of claims ($3.12 ROI) and this gelding has tons of back class.  He has the right stalking style to make noise late in this affair.

RACE 9: 5-4-1-3

The debut effort of #5 MARKETSEGMENTATION is enough to make her the favorite here for Chad Brown. She was impressive in that victory, pulling clear late for an 8-1 upset.  Two runners from the balance of the field came back to win their next starts, and Brown sports strong numbers with turf routers off 180+ day breaks (29%, $1.87 ROI).






































































































































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