Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Saturday, December 4, 2021

AQUEDUCT – 12/4/21

RACE 1: 2-3-7-8

#2 RENWICK did more than enough on debut to be considered the one to beat here.  This son of Curlin made a bold move on the turn and put a charge into the sub-even money favorite that day and should improve with a race under his belt.  This rider has done well for this barn from limited opportunities at the Big A.

RACE 2: 3-6-4-8

#3 ROBYN AND ELI stretches out in distance off a positive debut for trainer Chad Brown.  This filly broke from the rail in her unveiling and didn’t get out of the gate all that well.  She worked her way into a stalking position and fought on gamely to the wire.  The eventual winner came right back to finish a strong second in the Tepin and two other also-rans have won since.

RACE 3: 6-8-9-7

#6 BALLYDOOLEY is interesting in here if #10 FAST GETAWAY doesn’t show his customary speed off the claim.  The former can get clear of this bunch and exits a 7f affair when he was involved in a white hot early pace.  He’ll have to improve to beat #8 ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS, but will offer attractive odds.

RACE 4: 2-9-4-1

The numbers that Antonio Arriaga have amassed with dirt routers off of claims are sensational (33%, $4.60 ROI) and #2 DIRECT ORDER fits well here.  He was a rallying 3rd last time out when wide on a day when saving ground was beneficial.  He gets the rider back on board who has been in the irons for his last two wins and should get a decent pace setup as well.

RACE 5: 1-2-7-5

All eyes on this affair which kicks off the Pick 6 with an enormous carryover of over 730k!  #1 WILLAKIA is a second timer who was wide much of the way last time out on debut.  The inside paths on the outer turf course were best on opening day of the fall meet and this daughter of Tapit likely needed the race and more ground.  She gets more ground here for a barn that does far better with routers than sprinters.

RACE 6: 8-6-5-2

Progeny of Kantharos love turf sprinting and there’s enough pedigree in play with #8 U KANT WHIP IT to give him a second look.  He debuted at Delaware and did little running but now shows up with blinkers, as a new gelding and is out of a dam who was a turf winner. She was out of a dam who was a turf winner and another solid turf competitor.  This guy should have speed in this spot, which undoubtedly lacks a standout.

RACE 7: 7-2-1-4

In search of an alternative to the likely heavy fave #2 LADY ROCKET, the best option is #7 SHARP STARR.  She woke up last time out in the Empire Distaff and showed signs of still being the horse who rattled off two huge wins over this strip late in 2020.  It’s disconcerting that her trainer is struggling mightily at this meet, but this gal figures to get a great stalking trip in a race where the choice could have distance limitations.

RACE 8: 1-4-7-3

Todd Pletcher should have a lock on the juvenile events today starting with #1 MO DONEGAL, who overcame an inside bias to win impressively last time out.  The 3rd place finisher came back to crush a MSW field here two weeks ago, and this colt is bred to excel with more ground.  His 2nd dam was 10 furlong Delaware Handicap winner Island Sand.  Look for him to mow them down late.

RACE 9: 5-3-7-4

The improvement shown by #5 NEST at second asking was notable given the jump in class.  She showed tremendous potential on debut with a smashing maiden win, then made the only real off the pace move in the Tempted.  She should absolutely love the 9 furlongs and will get some pace to run at thanks to two outsiders in here.  Look for her to try to cut them all down late, similar to her stablemate in the race before.

RACE 10: 2-5-1-3

After considering every runner in this octet, there was enough to keep you coming back to #2 PLAINSMAN, including what should be a square price at the windows.  He was a game winner two back, albeit against weaker at Churchill, then endured a tough trip in the Bold Ruler.  Dispatched as the 11-10 favorite, he was steadied a couple of times on the turn before angling inside to rally into a glacial pace.  He will get a square pace to run at today and returns to a surface over which he is a graded stake winner.  You could do worse than him at 12-1 or so.

AQUEDUCT FALL STATS: 124-31-19-15                   $266.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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