Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Saturday, November 13, 2021

AQUEDUCT – 11/13/21

RACE 1: 6-1-3-4

#6 DREAM BIGGER goes first off a claim by Mertkan Kantarmaci following a dull run lsat time out for 25k.  He did spend the majority of that race on slower inside paths and now draws favorably on the outside.  This colt looms the biggest threat to #1 SUMMER BOURBON.

RACE 2: 4-3-2-6

#4 BLESS BLESS is back on short rest two weeks after debuting in a race taken off the turf.  Trainer Michelle Nevin is clearly eager to get this one to the weeds and is adding blinkers to his equipment.  He is by a solid turf sire and is out of a dam who was a half to turf graded stakes runner Startup Nation.

RACE 3: 6-7-1-3

The connections that claimed #6 BABA clearly didn’t expect her to run as well as she did in that late August tilt.  She disappointed in her first start since but is now in an ideal position outside of the other speed in this compact field.  Look for stalk and pounce tactics to be employed today.

RACE 4: 6-8-5-1

The last time #6 CHOOSE HAPPINESS ran on the turf she had a brutal trip given the track profile that day.  The inside paths were best on Fourstardave week, and this filly was wide the entire way.  She gets re-united with Irad Ortiz, Jr. today and needs to improve to contend, but will offer value in a race that should feature a contested pace.

RACE 5: 7-3-8-9

#7 IMMORTALIZATION is clearly the one to beat dropping in class for trainer John Kimmel.  He is a new gelding on the drop and is likely to be a popular commodity at the claim box.  If he has his customary early speed, he’ll be very tough to beat.

RACE 6: 9-7-5-1

There’s some pedigree elements with #9 OUR SHOT that make him interesting, including that progeny of Kantharos hit in their turf debuts at a15% clip.  The dam dropped one turf winner and the worktab looks solid.  There are no standouts in this field by any means.

RACE 7: 3-7-5-2

#3 HAPPY SOPHIA ran a race last time out that was easily fast enough to win this thing.  She has scored two straight and took advantage of a kind setup in winning last time out.  There’s enough pace in here to set her up again and she will be a square price based on the morning line.

RACE 8: 5-3-7-4

There might not be an easier winner in the country today than #5 HAPPY MEDIUM.  He came back from a layoff to win handily last time out and earn a colossal Beyer figure of 103.  The lead is his for the taking and he still has a massive amount of upside.

RACE 9: 3-1-6-11

There is some other speed in here, but #3 RINALDI is quicker than all of them early.  If he’s able to get control, he is a major threat to go the distance.  The other pace players all want to stalk and pounce and that might leave Luis Saez in an advantageous spot.

RACE 10: 5-7-4-3

#5 LOST ANCHOR debuted against slightly tougher and wound up racing wide on a day when it seemed like the inside was best.  The blinkers are going on, and she did show speed in her unveiling, so there’s reason to believe she can be battling away from the start.  You’ll get a square price as well.

AQUEDUCT FALL STATS: 18-7-3-1                        $62.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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