Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Sunday, November 28, 2021

AQUEDUCT – 11/28/21

RACE 1: 3-6-5-7

#3 PARATUS endured a brutal trip last time out that wasn’t really documented in his past performance line.  He ended up stuck behind traffic and had no chance to run, so you can draw a line through that event.  If jockey Junior Alvarado can get him more involved early, his chances will improve.

RACE 2: 2-3-8-9

The inside post for #2 MORE GOOD TIMES is ideal as she can save ground from the outset.  Her first start for Jorge Abreu was solid enough, as she rallied well to round out the superfecta behind a pair of subsequent winners.  She should get some pace to run at and will be a square price to boot.

RACE 3: 3-6-8-9

The lack of talent in this field makes #3 BUSTIN BAY the one to beat.  She moved up in class last time out and showed little on the lawn, so the surface change should help her cause.  Her tactical speed is a weapon and Irad Ortiz, Jr. being on board is a positive.

RACE 4: 4-1-8-5

#4 EMPEROR’S CAUSE ran a bang-up race last time out in his NY debut for the South Florida-based Matthew Williams.  This gelding raced along the inside for much of the opening half-mile, and the outside was the place to be that day.  He battled on even as the pace collapsed and unquestionably posted his best effort to date.  Look for him to stalk #1 WATER’S EDGE and pounce when ready.

RACE 5: 12-11-1-8

When #11 MR. CONNECTICUT and #12 UMBRIA met on October 28, the former ran better with a much more ideal trip.  The latter is likely to reverse that decision today if able to relax a bit more off the pace.  The hot-riding Jose Lezcano is aboard and that is a good thing.

RACE 6: 6-3-8-2

There is a lot going for #6 PRIORITIZE, who has landed in the exacta in each of his two prior starts at the Big A.  He is taking a massive drop in class today racing for a tag for the first time since December 2019, and was also on the wrong part of the track in his last start.  This is a serious opportunity for him to get things restarted for a barn that is more than capable.

RACE 7: 2-4-3-1

It is incumbent upon Irad Ortiz, Jr. to keep #2 LOVE AND THUNDER more involved early in this race as she cuts back in distance.  It is reasonable to believe, though, that she is a better turf sprinter than router based on her big effort two starts back.  She was unlucky last time out when 5th in the Noble Damsel and her price here will be fair at 9/2 or so.

RACE 8: 2-8-3-6

#2 GREEN LIGHT GO looked like a serious 2YO a few years ago for trainer Jimmy Jerkens and now finds himself trying to get things restarted in his 11th career outing.  Despite winning going long earlier this year, it stands to reason that he is better sprinting.  The pace in here should boil over, and that figures to help his cause in the lane as well.

RACE 9: 10-9-7-2

Enough worked against #10 CAIRONI last time out to give her another shot here.  She was out of the gate poorly that afternoon and wound up making a bold move around the far turn to reach contention.  She handled the extra ground without issue and is a major player here as one of the choices.

RACE 10: 8-4-3-6

There’s no reason to think #8 FREEDOMOFTHEPRESS will benefit from the cutback in distance.  However, she couldn’t have possibly found a weaker field against whom trainer Linda Rice could try it, so the nod goes here in a weak affair.

AQUEDUCT FALL STATS: 95-20-16-9              $167.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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