Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Friday, April 9

AQUEDUCT – 4/9/2021

RACE 1: 5-4-3

#5 SUPPLY AND DEMAND debuts for a barn that had a smashing first out winner yesterday.  This barn is 7-16 overall with 3YO and up firsters in dirt sprints over the last 5 years ($3.86 ROI).  Look for her to give a good account of herself on debut.

RACE 2: 5-1/1A-3

#5 LOTTIE’S MIZZION showed speed while racing wide over a surface that was kind to inside runners when last seen.  She has the tactical speed to stay close from the outset and is a major threat from that position.

RACE 3: 5-6-7-11

#5 JUSTINTIMEFORWINE is a new gelding now in the care of Pat Reynolds, which is a monstrous trainer change off of his prior conditioner.  He has a ton of speed and should get loose in this bunch.

RACE 4: 6-1/1A-3-2

#6 TAPIZEARANCE goes first off a claim by Karl Broberg after making a big middle move to reach the lead last time out.  He was ultimately outfinished late by the eventual winner but ran a credible race and has the tactical speed to stay close in a largely paceless affair.

RACE 5: 9-11-1

The layoff for #9 MANDATE is not of big concern given that Todd Pletcher is 22% with turf routers off 180+ day breaks ($2.51 ROI).  This son of Blame was at his best before the layoff and should be a late player in here.

RACE 6: 5-2-4-1 

Trainer Jimmy Jerkens has long been considerably better with 2nd time starters than with debuting runners and #5 ROYAL REALM gets lasix for the first time and blinkers for this engagement.  He was bested by a repeat winner last time and didn’t have a clean trip.  Expect improvement in a race that features a number of runners coming back from layoffs.


RACE 7: 1/1A-8-2

The entry of #1 PRICE TALK and #1A GOOD GOVERNANCE is simply much too tough for the balance of this field.  The latter was hurt by traffic as the favorite in the Bernard Baruch and is destined for more graded stakes engagements in the future.

RACE 8: 4-3-6-8

#4 CONFECTIONER debuted on the turf and didn’t have a clean trip back in June of last year.  He now changes surfaces for trainer Wayne Potts, who is 13% with sprinters going dirt-to-turf over the last 5 years ($3.40 ROI).

AQUEDUCT STATS: 265-71-44-32         $416.30























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