Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Thursday, November 11, 2021

AQUEDUCT – 11/11/21

RACE 1: 6-8-3-1

Back at the Big A!  #6 CAUMSETT is a threat to go gate-to-wire in the meet opener given her pace advantage and the fact she set a strong early clip before being collared last time out.  She was scratched out of a similar spot in mid-October before landing here and retains the pilot who was aboard for her last improved outing.  Look for them to get control from the outset.

RACE 2: 3-5-6-4

The slight drop from 30k to 25k will help #3 LITTERBOX, but this is a particularly weak 25k seller.  He faced much better in his last start and was out of position early.  There’s enough pace to run at late in here and he will offer value given the competitive nature of the field.

RACE 3: 2-3-4-5

The class jump for #2 BLUE ATLAS is not a concern given that she ran well for 40k two starts back.  She has improved with each of her last three outings and should get a fair pace to run at in this spot.  The barn of Horacio DePaz has done incredibly well with limited starters in NY in 2021.

RACE 4: 2-6-7-8

#2 CORE CONVICTION is bred more for dirt and wound up getting serious support on debut when bet down to 3-1 against subsequent stakes winner Gear Jockey.  It’s interesting that Chad Brown is going to dirt with him given the limited remaining turf opportunities.  He is the right bet here given the likely overwhelming favoritism of #6 WAXMAN.

RACE 5: 3-1-5-11

#3 GRADED ON A CURVE is hardly an exciting prospect here, but is a deserving favorite given past accomplishments.  He has a big late kick and should get some pace to run at for Chad Brown. This barn has a strong 25% strike rate with turf routers going in for tags for the first time.

RACE 6: 2-9-7-6

#2 VACCINE OF HOPE fits well at Aqueduct given the requirement of being vaccinated to attend!  All kidding aside, this filly ran well on debut behind subsequent stakes winner Bubble Rock and should improve with that race behind her.  The inside has often been very good on the turf courses during opening weekend at Aqueduct in the past and it would hardly surprise if it is again.

RACE 7: 8-5-1-2

The surface change should do #8 REPO ROCKS plenty of good, as he is drawn well outside of the other pace players.  His effort two back at this level was good enough to win today if duplicated. The rail was good that day and this son of Tapiture was wide the entire trip.  Look for him to stalk and pounce in here.

RACE 8: 9-1-2-8

There is some concern about whether #9 NEVER EXPLAIN is good enough to beat this field, but he has had two very troubled trips in his last couple of outings.  He was hopelessly wide two starts back at the Spa when the hedge was the place to be on the inner, then had a wide trip last time too on opening weekend of the Belmont meet.  That was when the rail was good again.  He should get some pace to run at here as a live longshot.

RACE 9: 1-5-11-9

#1 NOW YUS CANT LEAVE hailed from a red-hot barn when she won last time out and broke her maiden.  She was claimed that day by an outfit that is 19% first off the claim in turf routes, good for a $2.07 ROI.  The inside post is ideal as she should be coming from a bit off the pace.

FINAL BELMONT FALL STATS: 287-69-41-34                         $535.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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