Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Thursday, November 18, 2021

AQUEDUCT – 11/18/21

RACE 1: 4-2-9-6

#4 BALTHUS debuted at 10 furlongs at Belmont and was clearly in need of a race.  It was also quite problematic that he spent the majority of the race 3-4 wide on the course.  The rail was the place to be on opening weekend of the Belmont meet and this colt was squarely against things.

RACE 2: 7-1-3-8

Trainer Dave Donk is perfectly capable of having one ready on debut and #7 BARREL OF QUESTS has the pedigree to get the job done at first asking.  Progeny of Mission Impazible score on debut at a 12% clip and the dam was a 2x turf winner.  She has dropped two accomplished turfers and this one meets a particularly weak field for his unveiling.

RACE 3: 4-7-8-5

This is a great opportunity to bet against #7 NICKY THE VEST, whose two wins over this course were not nearly as impressive as they look on paper.  He has upside, but his trainer has a poor record with layoff returnees.  The alternative is #4 THORNY TALE, whose trainer has had success in NY and who shows up in amazing form.  Look for him to get control of this race early and that makes him a major threat to go the distance.

RACE 4: 2-5-9-10

#2 BOB IN OUR MIDST may be overlooked by much of the wagering public given his recent try for 12.5k at Meadowlands.  It’s worth noting that race came against open company, which is a completely different group than this N2L event.  He also had some traffic trouble and ran better than his 6th place finish looks on paper.  This barn has had 3 ITM finishers from 6 starters in NY over the last 5 years as well.

RACE 5: 7-2-9-1

#7 RUSSIARUSSIARUSSIA was bet down to 2-1 on debut for Chad Brown and wound up making a respectable late move to snag the oplace dough.  He stands to benefit from the experience, as most Brown trainees do.  This barn is 30% with 2nd time starters in MSW turf routes over the last 5 years ($2.03 ROI).

RACE 6: 5-6-7-2

#5 COVER PHOTO has had nothing go her way in recent starts, including enduring wide trips on days where the rail was best in her last two outings.  She will be a huge price once again and is in light with the bug boy astride.  This is hardly a robust field and she can be in a good stalking spot early.

RACE 7: 2-7-11-5

#2 STEELERSFANFORLIFE had little to no racing luck last time out when trying to rally into a slow pace.  He wound up stuck behind horses when producing that late run and never fully hit his stride.  There’s enough pace to set up his late bid here and you’ll get a very nice price to boot.

RACE 8: 8-12-4-5

The late traffic issues #8 GRAPE NUTS WARRIOR ran into killed his chances last time out.  He gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. for this engagement and figures to get a solid pace to run at in the late stages.  The fact that he’s remained consistent in his 5 prior starts only adds to his appeal.

RACE 9: 5-6-9-11

#5 BOINTHEBACK is in for a tag for the first time for Tony Dutrow after racing wide last time out following a slow break from the gate.  He gets Javier Castellano in the irons again and they snagged the place dough together two back against tougher.  The class relief alone should make a major difference.

AQUEDUCT FALL STATS: 36-11-7-3                      $109.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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