Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Thursday, October 20, 2022

AQUEDUCT 10/20/22

RACE 1: 1-5-3-6

#1 JOSIE’S THUNDER is a firster by Boys at Tosconova, a 15% debut sire and is out of a dam who was a 7x winner.  He appears to be training very strongly for Dave Donk, who is perfectly capable of having one ready on debut.  The most recent workout received glowing reviews from observers.

RACE 2: 5-1-3-2

#5 LINNY KATE goes 2nd off a claim and returns to dirt for trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci.  She has been just as effective on dirt as she’s been on turf and her N2L win over this strip is good enough to get major consideration today.  There has to be an alternative to #1 KERIK and this mare provides it.

RACE 3: 2-6-4-5

It is often that in these types of races the public defaults to Chad Brown trainees like #2 LADY DAY.  She comes back off a long break and Brown has just average numbers, by his standards, with Euro imports off 6+ month layoffs on the lawn (25%, $1.47 ROI).  The addition of Lasix should help her chances, though, and she kept much better company overseas.

RACE 4: 6-8-3-7

The last time #6 PROVEN HOPE was entered on turf he had an interesting look to him and he now shows up first off a claim as a new gelding.  Trainer Bruce Brown took him for 75k last time out and now runs him for 40k, but the availability of races may have impacted that a tad.  Nonetheless, this son of Street Boss is a threat from just off the pace.

RACE 5: 2-6-5-4

#2 MONSHUN wired a field of weaker claimers last time out and now steps up in competition.  This is only a slight jump, though, given the restriction to 3YOs, as 6 of her 9 rivals are N2L eligible themselves.  She has ample early speed and should be forwardly placed again today as the favorite.

RACE 6: 2-9-8-1 

#2 CLASSIC LADY takes a massive class drop for trainer Christophe Clement and should be tough to handle with anything close to her best.  While it’s not the greatest sign that she’s in for the tag with so much time left in turf season, this is a reasonable spot given the way she’s performed of late.  Her inside post should help facilitate a ground-saving trip.

RACE 7: 6-1-4-2

#6 SILVER STRAND is an interesting wager at her 7/2 morning line, though she is likely to get bet down off of that number.  She returns off a layoff following two horrendous performances in Kentucky.  Both ended in last place finishes, and the subsequent layoff indicates something likely went wrong.  If she can get back to her debut she is a major player.

RACE 8: 4-5-1-3

#4 HE’S GOT IT is the one to bet on the cutback in distance, especially given how close he was to the early pace last time out.  He can be effective sprinting given the April run over this trip and a recent bullet workout signals his readiness.  The likelihood of him being a square price adds to the appeal.

RACE 9: 10-3-7-1

#10 EXCEPT TEMPTATION takes a big drop into the starter allowance ranks after 5 straight outings against allowance company.  She ran credibly two back after breaking poorly and meets a totally different group of horses this afternoon.  The key will be negotiating a trip from the outside post.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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