Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Thursday, September 22, 2022

AQUEDUCT – 9/22/22

RACE 1: 3-7-10-4

#3 GALILEO’S JEWEL is a firster by Kingman, whose progeny hit at a 22% clip in their turf debuts.  The dam here was a turf winner and was stakes caliber.  Trainer Tony Dutrow has had a few big price winners first time out and this filly has reportedly trained well for her unveiling.

RACE 2: 5-4-1-6

#5 MONSHUN is dropping in class for trainer Ray Handal and looks like the controlling speed on paper.  Handal is 16% with dirt starters racing for tags the first time ($2.14 ROI) and this filly has run some of her best races when fresh.  Expect her to be involved from the outset.

 

RACE 3: 6-4-3-2

In the current game, the key to getting a horse to show more speed is to put Flavien Prat on and that’s what Chad Brown is doing with #6 ROCKY SKY.  She was wired last time out at Saratoga while receiving a passive ride and should be much more involved early today.  She also looks much better than her rivals on paper.

RACE 4: 3-2-10-5

#3 SOMAMA BEACH ran a credible race on debut setting a hot pace along the rail before tiring late.  He now drops in for a tag and should be a major pace player again.  You’ll get some value here thanks to low percentage connections in play.

RACE 5: 5-4-8-9

#5 STONEWALL STAR is a second time starter who debuted against MSW foes at Saratoga.  She finished a bang-up second after getting involved in a hot pace and is quick enough to get well clear early in this affair.  Look for the same aggressive tactics to be used by Manny Franco.

RACE 6: 9-4-5-3

This is a very clear class drop for #9 BATTLE STATION, who faced much tougher open N2X competition first off a claim by Linda Rice.  He now figures to get an ideal stalking trip on the outside with confirmed speed on the rail.  His best races make him competitive, and Rice won 5 races on opening weekend at this Royal Aqueduct meet.

RACE 7: 9-5-10-1

In a race where there’s enough confirmed speed to set the table, let’s try to upset things with #9 LADY OF THOROTON.  She was a good third two starts back in a race where the pace otherwise held together quite well.  That was as strong a race as the 50k N2L that is common among a few other runners in the field.  There’s value to be had on this daughter of Noble Mission.

2022 Breeders Cup Wagering Guide

 

RACE 8: 2-6-3-7

#2 SNICKET was hurt by an inside post position last time out, but still ran well to be second at 6-1 in the Union Avenue.  She should be in an ideal stalking spot today and has done some of her best work at the Big A.  Her training has continued to be strong for one of the circuit’s most underrated trainers.

RACE 9: 4-5-9-1

There’s no way to adequately describe the ride given to #4 LADY FIREFOOT by Javier Castellano last time out.  She was hopelessly wide on both turns during a period when saving ground was essential.  The cutback in distance will do her no harm and the drop in class is also notable.

ROYAL AQUEDUCT TOP PICK STATS: 38-7-11-9 $42.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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