Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Analysis – Thursday, September 29, 2022

AQUEDUCT 09/29/22

RACE 1: 2-1-4-6

#2 ALESSIA goes second off a layoff coming out of a stronger than par MSW at the Spa.  That was the second straight solid effort for a filly who is trying to break Hall of Famer Nick Zito’s losing streak.  She should be in a stalk and pounce spot from the start.

RACE 2: 7-6-3-2

The pace edge that #7 JAVA BUZZ possesses on his stable mate #6 ROCKET’S RED GLARE is sizable and important in the context of this race.  He should clear the field on a course where the rail is now at zero for the first time during the meet.  Look for him to come out swinging.

RACE 3: 4-3-2 

#4 ARCTIC ARROGANCE is the one to catch in this Bertram Bongard off a maiden win earned in wire-to-wire fashion.  He is the quickest on paper in this compact field and still has plenty of upside given his strong pedigree.  Trainer Linda Rice’s barn has also been white hot at this meet.

RACE 4: 2-5-7-3

Only if #2 VIRADIA starts is this Jose Camejo-trained entry worthy of a play.  She is clearly the better half of the pairing and hails from a barn that is 35% 1st off the claim in dirt sprints over the last five years, and specifically 5 of 8 in those categories over the last  year.  Her recent form is respectable as well.

RACE 5: 1-6-9-8

#1 INSPECTOR is an interesting firster breaking from the rail for trainer Steve Asmussen.  This colt is out of a stakes-placed dam who was a half to NY bred stake winner Miss Narcissist.  The sale workout he posted was strong and he has continued those powerful drills in the mornings.

RACE 6: 7-6-8-5

#7 FOUETTE should get the right trip from just off the pace after putting forth a solid effort in a stake last time out.  The company she kept that day is much tougher than what she meets here, and the strong run from Linda Rice’s barn is also encouraging.  Look for her to get a good trip on the outside as well.

RACE 7: 2-7-6-1

The layoff is the only real worry with #2 DREAMS OF TOMORROW.  He has run a number of races that would make him impossible to beat here and trainer Shug McGaughey is 26% with turf routers off 180+ day breaks ($2.71 ROI).  His tactical speed is a weapon given today’s pilot.

RACE 8: 4-3-8-6

#4 UNBRIDLED BOMBER is a legitimate candidate for an upset here given his last outing.  He made two moves, the first to establish a forward early position, and the second as the race was falling apart late.  He is a confirmed closer in a race loaded with frontrunning types, so the setup should be there as well.

RACE 9: 5-4-8-11

#5 STORM THE EMPIRE is a second time starter who raced along the rail on debut at the Spa.  He should improve with that race under his belt, has trained forwardly since that affair.  He should have speed again in a race that offers few clues on paper.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Further reading