Nick Tammaro’s Aqueduct Selections & Analysis – Saturday, March 4, 2023

AQUEDUCT – 3/4/23

RACE 1: 3-6-5-2

#3 LIAM’S CHAMP ran into a heap of trouble last time out at the top of the stretch.  She was stalled in traffic and wound up making a strong late run once freed up in mid-stretch.  This is her race to lose as she gets a bit more ground with which to work in what looks like a weaker than par MSW event.

RACE 2: 6-7-1-2

#6 TREATY OBLIGATION had enough trouble on debut to be considered the one to beat today.  He broke slowly after getting bet down to 5/2 in a race where the pace was very slow to develop.  The late run he put in to round out the trifecta was impressive and any improvement would make him very tough to handle.

RACE 3: 5-2-7-4

#5 MARKET ALERT was stuck inside as the race developed last time out and that worked against him late.  He should improve on the drop to the N2X ranks this afternoon and figures to be a fair price in a competitive field.  His ability to handle the mile is noteworthy given the number of sprinters stretching out in this field.

RACE 4: 6-3-2-5

The debut win for #6 ASSET PURCHASE was tremendous, as she stalked the pace, took over and pulled clear late.  Trainer Chad Brown is 7 for his last 17 with dirt starters in stakes races in NY off of maiden wins ($2.41 ROI).  The outside draw is ideal and she should have no problem stretching out in distance.

RACE 5: 6-1/1A-5-3

#4 OPTIC WAY goes first off a claim for trainer Rudy Rodriguez after chasing a white hot pace last time out that collapsed late.  He is the one to catch this afternoon with the double bug on board and is a serious threat to wire the field.  If he duplicates his effort from two back the balance of this field is in trouble.

RACE 6: 3-4-1-7

#3 RUSSI is a second time starter who shows up as a new gelding for a barn that scored two wins on Friday.  He chased the pace on debut before tiring late and should be a threat from the opening bell today.  The rail was the place to be last time out and that worked against him, so improvement is expected here.

RACE 7: 6-2-7-4

The inability to finish the job is the only worry with #6 LIFE CHANGER, who has been in the money in each of his last 8 starts with a pair of wins.  He was a distant second last time out behind a runaway winner but was against the grain of the racetrack that day going wide.  He should get a massive pace setup here and will be a square price due to the presence of #7 ROTKNEE.

RACE 8: 3-4-7-1

#3 RUNNINSONOFAGUN returns from a layoff after ending 2022 with a graded stake win and a narrow miss over this oval.  He is versatile and can be positioned anywhere early, which is a weapon in a fast-paced race such as this.  His last two efforts are better than anything anyone in here has posted recently and that makes him the one to beat.

RACE 9: 11-12-6-5

#11 SLIP MAHONEY has improved with each passing start for trainer Brad Cox and now faces winners for the first time.  He wired the field last time out while racing on the stronger inside paths and will likely now have to come from off the pace.  With another step forward he is the one to beat.

RACE 10: 3-4-6-2

#3 CALLALOO faces winners for the second time this afternoon after finishing a distant second behind a runaway winner last time out.  He has plenty of speed and can be within range from the start in a race that’s heavy on speed.  His improvement since moving to the one mile trip has been notable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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