Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Friday, April 30

BELMONT – 4/30/2021

RACE 1: 4-1-6

#4 GAGLIANO cuts back in distance and should get a respectable pace setup today.  She was a fast-closing second two starts back and will be a late threat, if any at all.  Her form is dark enough to have many look other ways, and this barn was white hot towards the end of Belmont.

RACE 2: 10-1-3

The recent claim of #10 BIG MOUNTAIN by astute connections like owner Larry Roman and trainer Mike Miceli is encouraging.  He has a ton of speed and can still use it to his advantage.  If he is able to get loose of the pack, he’s unquestionably a serious win candidate.

RACE 3: 4-5-7

The rider change on #4 MUSICAL HEART is notable, as Trevor McCarthy is far more skilled with speed horses than Manny Franco.  This gelding set a slow pace before tiring last time out and might benefit from being left alone on the lead in here.

RACE 4: 11-2-3-10-7

#11 LORD FLINTSHIRE will be saddled with a nearly impossible outside post if she gets in off the AE list.  He has performed well against comparable, if not tougher, competition and figures to drop out and make one run and that’ll help him overcome the outside post.

RACE 5: 11-1-8

#11 KEPT WAITING is back in NY after one solid effort out west for Robby Falcone, Jr.  She performed well at today’s trip last year and is best suited to sprinting.  The trip she figures to get from just off the pace will be ideal.

RACE 6: 4-3-8

Don’t let the low percentage connections scare you away as #4 STEPPIN’ HAWK exits a solid performance at nearly 30-1.  He was not failed by his low percentage rider that day, but the move to Mike Luzzi is an upgrade.  Look for her to stalk and pounce today as a live price play.

RACE 7: 8-2-6

The talent shown by #8 HIGHEST HONORS as a 3YO was vast and he now looks to restart his career off a lengthy layoff.  His maiden win came around one turn at Belmont and the trip he figures to get here is ideal given the pace scenario and his outside post.

RACE 8: 7-8-1

#7 FETCHING likely needed her last outing and will improve 2nd off a layoff.  She didn’t do much running last time out, but gets a rider change back to Jose Lezcano and should get a square pace to run at in the late stages.

RACE 9: 10-3-6

#10 CARAVEL ran a couple of bang-up races sprinting last year and should get a great trip just off the pace today for Elizabeth Merryman.  You’ll get some value here in a deep and competitive field and she looks to be training forwardly for her return to the races.

BELMONT STATS: 44-13-8-4          $50.30

























































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