Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Sunday, June 20, 2021

BELMONT – 6/20/2021

RACE 1: 1-2-3

It’s no great surprise that Wesley Ward scratched the morning line favorite, but perhaps a sign of confidence in #1 TESORINA, who now looms a likely favorite 2nd off a layoff after showing speed and fading late at Keeneland last month.

RACE 2: 4-2-1

With #7 MOLINO scratched, #4 MR. KRINGLE becomes the one to beat.  He has seen better days, but finds the right field from a class and pace perspective.  If he is a tad more aggressively ridden in the opening stages, it will go a long way towards helping his cause.

RACE 3: 6-1/1A-8

#6 POWERFUL FORCE worked :10 and 1/5 at the Fasig-Tipton March sale at Gulfstream and appears to be training well for Graham Motion.  His sire, Practical Joke, has 3 debut winners already in his first crop. While the pedigree is short on turf prowess, you have to trust a trainer like Motion in this scenario.

RACE 4: 2-4-3

#2 SUPERFECTO was entered in a similar spot on May 29 and was scratched because of wet conditions.  He now returns off a break here for underrated conditioner Ralph Nicks and is reportedly training well.  He is perfectly capable of rating off the rail runner and being successful too.

RACE 5: 11-10-3

#11 FRACTORZATION got involved in an insane pace last time out before understandably tiring late and now goes 2nd off a layoff for John Kimmel.  The pace should set up much better for this daughter of The Factor and the outside post is ideal.  The 7f trip is likely the only hang-up.

RACE 6: 4-3-1

#4 DUNPH just looks a little too tough for this bunch as he drops in class 2nd off a layoff for high percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro.  He was last seen narrowly missing against tougher and has the requisite tactical speed to get a good stalking spot in this affair.

RACE 7: 4-6-3-5

#4 MISS DRACARYS was an upset debut winner on this circuit and wound up in a N1X at Santa Anita in April where she was aggressively ridden before fading late.  This is the right spot for her distance and class-wise with John Velazquez taking the call and she should get some pace to run at in the late stages.

RACE 8: 2-9-3-6

#2 AMERICANREVOLUTION debuted in a salty MSW at Keeneland last October that was eventually won by subsequent graded stake winner Mandaloun.  This son of Constitution endured a horrible trip en route to finishing fourth and now returns off a layoff for a barn that excels with fresh horses, getting Lasix and against NY breds.

RACE 9: 1-4-6-2

As tempting as it might be to take a swing against #1 RAGING BULL, there just isn’t a runner in this field who can compete with him if he offers anything close to his best.  He was a tremendous winner of the Maker’s Mark Mile, moving aggressively at the 3/8 pole to seize command and showed far more early speed in that win than he ever had before.  That sets him up well for a solid 2021 campaign.

RACE 10: 14-4-2-11-3

#14 SOCIAL WHIRL is the one to beat if able to draw in off the AE list, as she drops in for a tag following a recent try against MSW runners. The winner of that race has since returned to take a N1X and this filly would be a main pace player if she is able to participate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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