Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Friday, May 14

BELMONT – 5/14/2021

RACE 1: 2/2B-1/1A-6

#2B ENTWINE will benefit from having a prior start in 2021 behind her, and there was plenty offered that day to build on in subsequent efforts.  This daughter of Fast Company rallied stoutly into a modest pace and should get a better setup in here.

RACE 2: 7-1/1A-2-3

#7 SOCIAL GROUP drops significantly in class for Mertkan Kantarmaci, who has become a claiming game kingpin in recent years.  This gelding was taken for 16k, so the drop down to 14k is not so ominous.  He should get a good stalking trip in a race short on speed.

RACE 3: 1-2-4

The pace scenario is the only thing working against #1 PENALTY in this affair as he cuts back in distance.  Seven panels has long been the ideal trip for him and he should be in line to save ground with cover and pop out to make one late run.

RACE 4: 5-6-3

#5 ROYAL REALM narrowly missed last time out when 3rd beaten a neck against similar foes at Aqueduct. He improved by leaps and bounds at second asking and now meets a weaker field from top to bottom than the one he faced that day.

RACE 5: 4-7-9

In two prior turf tries, #4 KID BOURBON has faced considerably better competition and now lands in a terrific spot for Mark Hennig. This son of Lemon Drop Kid has had multiple opportunities to clear the N1X ranks and is now in for a tag, which is the proper placement from a class perspective.

RACE 6: 9-8-7-3

#9 HAMMERIN AAMER had just enough trouble last time out to keep him from getting in the exacta, and even potentially winning that 16k affair.  He draws favorably on the outside for his second outing since being re-claimed by Waybe Potts, so look for him to stalk and pounce.

RACE 7: 6-1-5

#6 FIGHT ON LUCY hates wet tracks, so you can throw out her last outing, and she prefers Belmont. There’s an abundance of pace signed up in here and that just might be enough to set up her late bid.  Her recent running lines don’t look too different from September 19 of last year when she scored here at longshot odds.

RACE 8: 2-1/1A-6

All eyes are on #2 STAGE RAIDER, the half-brother of Triple Crown winner Justify, who faces winners for the first time.  Trainer Chad Brown is on a 7-15 run with dirt routers exiting maiden wins, good for an un-Brown like $3.54 ROI.  This one is destined for graded stakes.

RACE 9: 9-7-12

#9 JADE’S DREAM should have won handily last time out if not for an abysmal ride.  This son of Drosselmeyer was dragged back, advanced on the backstretch, steadied out, got into traffic then flew late.  It’s not possible for him to have a worse trip and he meets an even weaker field today than he did that afternoon.

BELMONT STATS: 111-29-17-15            $166.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Further reading

Woodbine 6/20/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Doing something a bit different for this writeup as I’ll be out on a river all week without access to internet. Instead of morning lines, I’ll use my...