Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Saturday, May 8

BELMONT – 5/8/2021

RACE 1: 2-5-1

#2 VILLAINOUS was badly compromised by a surface that favored frontrunning types last time out and now takes a sizable class drop.  This is the right level for him given his effort two back and he should get just enough pace to run at late.

RACE 2: 7-1-12

#7 QUEEN ARELLA showed that she had serious talent in a debut win that was far more impressive than it looks on paper.  She handled turf without issue and now faces a weaker field moving into the NY bred ranks for new trainer Danny Gargan.  New arrivals to this barn historically improve immediately and that would make her a major player.

RACE 3: 6-7-11

#6 OB LA DI drops in class as she joins the barn of Dave Duggan and figures to be a major pace threat in here.  The blinkers are going on, and that will only sharpen this daughter of Macho Uno in the opening stages.

RACE 4: 3-5-4

#3 CHATEAU just may be too quick for them in here as he exits the Grade I Carter, where he set a fast pace and was overhauled late by Mischievous Alex.  This son of Flat Out is very fast and this is his best distance.  Look for him to run and gun from the outset.

RACE 5: 5-10-2

#5 SINFUL DANCER has run two dirt races that would make him an overwhelming favorite in here.  He is bred nicely for turf being from the first crop of War Dancer, whose progeny win their turf debuts at a 10% clip.  There is turf on the dam side, as she is kin to stakes performers Toughest ‘Ombre and Fear No Evil.

RACE 6: 1-2-5

#1 HARVEY’S LIL GOIL hinted at serious turf ability in 2020 and ended her 3YO season with a bang-up effort in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf.  She is a major force in this division and her ability to show speed only adds to her appeal.  Whatever this race serves as a starting point for, she is a very interesting runner.

RACE 7: 3-6-5

#3 VICTIM OF LOVE scored an upset win in this very race last year and now makes her second start of 2021.  She didn’t have the best of trips in her seasonal debut given the poor break from the gate, but she is a candidate to improve here and she’ll need to in order to beat the streaking #6 PACIFIC GALE.

RACE 8: 5-7-8-10

#5 IN ITALIAN is the one to beat on paper off a debut effort where she broke poorly, god into some traffic and still finished with interest.  She should be wound tighter at second asking and looms a deserving favorite in an uninspiring maiden field.

RACE 9: 4-2-3

With the expected scratch of #6 RISK TAKING, all eyes go to the Todd Pletcher-trained duo and #4 WOLFIE’S DYNAGHOST.  That son of Ghostzapper was a very impressive maiden winner on debut and figures to be a major pace threat off the layoff.  While this is an ambitious placement, it feels like a sign of confidence.

RACE 10: 7-1-8

#7 FIELD PASS is the one to catch in this spring staple as he stretches out in distance for trainer Mike Maker.  This barn excels with graded stakes runners going marathon distances, and the lead is his for the taking.  He has run his best races to date when he’s shown early foot and that only adds confidence.

RACE 11: 2-9-1

#2 RASTAFARA did everything but win on debut, registering a second place finish by a nose in a race where she did all the dirty work.  She should get a good trip stalking the pace today and figures to be a heavy favorite for the high percentage barn of Chad Brown.

BELMONT STATS: 91-25-15-12     $144.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Further reading

Woodbine 6/20/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Doing something a bit different for this writeup as I’ll be out on a river all week without access to internet. Instead of morning lines, I’ll use my...