Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Friday, October 1, 2021

BELMONT PARK – 10/1/21

RACE 1: 2-6-1

#2 DREAM BIGGER drops in class and faces the weakest competition he has yet in his career.  His speed is also a major weapon from this inside post, with the only negative being the barn’s modest record with dirt sprinters moving in for tags.  Look for him to be handled aggressively in the opening stages.

RACE 2: 2-1-7

Late traffic trouble dogged #2 VIVIDLY last time out, who was also attempting to rally into a slow pace.  She should appreciate the extra ground they’ll go today and the inside post will enable her to save ground right from the start.  The quicker they go early, the better.

RACE 3: 1-6-2-5

#1 TWIST JUST RIGHT did everything but win on debut and now looms a prohibitive favorite at second asking.  She was bet down to 4-1 in her unveiling and showed good speed before fading late.  The third place finisher came back to narrowly miss here on Sunday.

RACE 4: 7-4-3-8

As much as you want to find an alternative, #7 CAZILDA FORTYTALES looks much better than the competition she meets in this spot.  The class relief should help her cause, and she has the speed to be within range from the outset.  It will take serious improvement from a rival to beat this gal.

RACE 5: 1-6-2-9

Trainer Michelle Nevin scored a couple of impressive wins here on Thursday and #1 MAGNETIQUE is a pace threat from a cozy inside post going this 8.5 furlong trip.  She ran a bang-up race when 3rd against NY Bred allowance competition here back in April and fits well from a speed figure perspective.

RACE 6: 4-1-7-2

#4 LOVE AND THUNDER has done everything but win in four prior stateside outings.  She has been pace compromised in her last two and now figures to get a bit stronger early tempo to run at late.  There’s also reason to believe this 7 furlong trip will be ideal for her.

RACE 7: 8-5-7-6

#8 DRAFTED returns off a short layoff and is an interesting price play here.  This son of Field Commission was badly pace compromised on numerous occasions, and also faced considerably tougher competition in each of those four starts.  The outside post, time away, and drop in class can certainly pay dividends today.

RACE 8: 4-8-1-9

The trip #4 ICE PRINCESS endured in her lone prior turf try was far from ideal.  She was wrangled back early, wound up losing position, and wound up having to angle out to make a brief late bid.  With a cleaner run, she is a major player in a race that lacks a standout given the underwhelming 2021 efforts of #8 MYHARTBLONGSTODADY.

RACE 9: 7-8-5-12

#7 YARROW set the pace last time out going long in a comeback from a 6 month break.  He cuts back in distance here and that feels like the right move by his high percentage trainer.  The move to 7 panels should help him settle and make one run.

BELMONT FALL STATS: 85-21-13-12   $207.90 ($2.45)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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