Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Friday, September 24, 2021

BELMONT PARK – 9/24/21

RACE 1: 4-2-3

#4 BUSTIN BAY got claiming kingpin Karl Broberg out for the 14k he plunked down for this daughter of Bustin Stones when she dead heated in a NY bred N1X.  That’s why he can drop her back in for 10k in a spot far easier than the one she won in a month ago.  Expect her to be in stalk and pounce range from the start.

RACE 2: 7-1-4-3

The dam of #7 PURRFECT MISTRESS was 0-1 on the racetrack, but has produced 4 winners and is a half to the Grade I placed Santa Catarina.  This barn has had success from limited starters on this circuit, and the experienced runners in here inspire no confidence.

RACE 3: 6-5-2

#6 TIERGAN has a slight edge on #5 THREE JOKERS in a race that may end up being just the two of them.  The former is in good form and has an affinity for this oval.  That makes him the one to bet though it is truly a heads-up decision.

RACE 4: 4-1-7-2

#4 MO MISCHIEF takes a sizable class drop for a high percentage barn after showing little in his last MSW try at Monmouth.  He has good tactical speed and figures to be within range early in a race that is far weaker on paper than anything he’s been in of late.

RACE 5: 1-8-4-6

#1 PENDOLINO is a very interesting cutback after showing speed at 9 panels against much tougher at the Spa.  She has been more effective in her career sprinting and ran a race two back behind subsequent stakes winner Dancing Kiki that would make her a prime contender here.  You’re going to get a nice price to boot.

RACE 6: 6-2-3-8

#6 JUDGE DAVIS ran a sneaky good race on debut, breaking a tad sluggishly before making a big, wide move into the pace on the far turn.  He couldn’t collar eventual winner Major General, who has since come back to land a Grade III in Kentucky, but figures to improve for a barn that rarely puts the screws to its firsters.

RACE 7: 6-1A-8

A hot pace spelled doom for #6 WATER’S EDGE last time out, but he now looms a likely winner in this affair.  There’s no one who can keep up with him early, and there’s an argument to be made that the inside was not the most ideal part of the racetrack in his last outing.  They’ll have to catch him for the money.

RACE 8: 5-4-6-2

The move into Grade II competition, as well as the hot pace in the Adirondack, made it an impossible task for #5 SHESAWILDJOKER.  She now lands in a spot where there’s confirmed speed she can sit off of early. While things have gone better for #6 NOVEMBER REIN since these two faced off in June, it’s worth noting ‘Joker got the best of her.

RACE 9: 14-16-13-3

The move to dirt makes #14 BIG BROWN SHOES one of the likeliest winners on the card.  He has the speed to get command early and takes the biggest class drop in racing.  What’s left in this field when all is said and done is not likely to be particularly robust either.

BELMONT FALL STATS: 46-8-5-7   $118.90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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