Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Saturday, October 31, 2021

BELMONT PARK – 10/31/21

RACE 1: 6-1-3-2

#6 MATOULA took an appreciable step forward last time out for Pat Reynolds in her first start for his barn.  She stalked the pace and pulled clear authoritatively to score at 9-1.  This is a reasonable spot for her first try against winners and she figures to be a major pace player.  There’s plenty to question with the likely heavy fave #1 IAINTAFRAIDANOGHOST.

RACE 2: 6-11-13-12

#6 MAGNETIQUE showed big speed last time out going long on the turf and wound up weakening badly late.  She has generally been as good, if not better, on the dirt and should appreciate the surface switch today.  Her tactical speed is useful, though she figures to settle and make one run on the cutback in distance.

RACE 3: 7-8-2-3

In addition to being placed completely over her head from a class perspective, #7 HANDLE THE TRUTH had to deal with a significant rail bias last time out.  She was wide on the course much of the way and wound up falling apart late.  This is a far more realistic spot class-wise and she should be a square price as a serious late player.

RACE 4: 7-3-1-6

#7 RADIO DAYS is by red-hot freshman sire Gun Runner, whose progeny hit at a 23% clip on debut.  This filly is reportedly training well and is out of an unraced dam who dropped 3 winners from as many to race.  While they’ve done the majority of their damage on turf, this one can be a player in a weak looking 2YO heat.

RACE 5: 12-14-10-8

#12 NO BURN looms a very heavy favorite on the surface switch for Bill Mott.  He has run two very solid races since moving to dirt two starts back and now faces drastically weaker than he did here on September 30.  The winner of that race, Happy Medium, looks to have stakes caliber ability after posting a huge effort in that win.

RACE 6: 1-4-3-2

#1 VICTIM OF LOVE has run well at Belmont on multiple occasions, and holding the Bed O’ Roses against her given the track condition seems foolish.  She has the inside post and can stalk the pace from there, which is a positive, as is the fact that her worktab off the bench looks robust.

RACE 7: 7-4-3-2

As much as you want to find an alternative to #7 WONDERWHERECRAIGIS, he is clearly the one to catch and is in top form for a high percentage stable.  This fleet-footed son of Munnings was last seen winning a G3 before being disqualified and now looks to be in position to control this tilt from the start.  If left alone on the front end, he will be impossible to beat.

RACE 8: 1-2-7-8

#1 ALWAYS CARINA is shortening up in distance and gives the appearance of a horse who wants to sprint.  She tired with no excuse last time out going long at Parx and now gets an opportunity to control things on the front end from the rail.  Note that the pilot who was aboard for the first two wins is back in the saddle.

RACE 9: 1-5-3-9

The debut effort from #2 WORKINGMAN’S DUDE had enough trouble for him to be given the nod at second asking.  He was drawn inside and wound up stalking the pace before getting into serious traffic trouble around the half-mile pole.  He was steadied sharply and his race was over at that point.  A cleaner trip will pay dividends.

BELMONT FALL STATS: 248-56-38-29         $454.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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