Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Saturday, October 9, 2021

BELMONT PARK – 10/9/21

RACE 1: 1-5-6-8

#1 ELEGANT LAOBAN is interesting given the race she ran two starts back when stuck inside against a better field of 40k NY bred maiden claimers.  She switches surfaces today and should be moving well late at an attractive price.  The weight break is also appealing.

RACE 2: 12-6-3-2

#12 VAGARIES ran into some trouble out of the gate and endured a wide trip when 3rd last time out on debut.  The runner-up has since come back to snag the place dough in the Miss Grillo and this filly seems to be training forwardly for her return to the races.  The outside post is of no great concern given this configuration.

RACE 3: 6-4-5-3

In what amounts to a nearly impossible affair, #6 MR. BRIGGS looks appealing second off a claim by Linda Rice.  He was a solid 2nd last time out going this trip and should be forwardly placed under the ultra aggressive Luis Saez.  With a forward move off that effort he is a serious player.

RACE 4: 2-4-5-3

#2 ZANDON doesn’t have much first family pedigree, but did go for 170k last year and is by 14% debut sire Upstart.  He looks to be training well for Chad Brown and should be a square price in a competitive group on paper.  The fact this guy fetched 170k despite having no first or second family pedigree on his dam side is notable.

RACE 5: 4-3-5

It’s time to embrace #4 FIRENZE FIRE, who was on his way to winning the Forego last time out before attempting to savage eventual winner Yaupon.  This veteran 6YO now returns to the site of his best performances and should get an ideal stalking trip outside of #3 BABY YODA.  That runner attempts to validate a huge speed figure earned when he sat on top of a slow pace and motored clear late.  Showdown in the offing.

RACE 6: 4-8-7-6

#4 LADY DANAE has to be given another chance after enduring a hopelessly wide trip last time out at Kentucky Downs.  By the end of their brief stand it was clear you needed to be on the inside and she lost ground right from the outset.  She should benefit from the move back to 6 panels and it’s encouraging that this barn scored a win here yesterday.

RACE 7: 2-6-3-7

To put it mildly, #2 ARKLOW has been in desperate need of a jockey change.  He’s getting it today as he returns to the site of a Grade I triumph two years ago.  His 2021 form is very solid and he should have been an easy winner last time out at Kentucky Downs.  The presence of confirmed speed only helps his chances and he might be a bit better with today’s two-turn configuration.

RACE 8: 11-8-9-6

If pace makes the race then #11 NEURO is supposed to get a terrific setup today.  He narrowly missed in his 2nd try against winners and has now put together a solid string of performances for Bobby Ribaudo.  There’s an abundance of speed signed on in here and that should only help this colt in the late stages.

RACE 9: 8-2-5-1

Even though he probably prefers Saratoga, #8 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS is the one to beat here off the claim by Natalia Lynch.  He made up real ground in a race dominated on the front end last time out and should be in a good stalking position this afternoon.  This should be an honestly run race and some of the likely pace players are rather suspect.

RACE 10: 3-6-8-4

Choosing between #3 VOODOO ZIP and #8 CHOCOLATE BAR, given the races they ran last time out, boils down to their riders.  The rider on Voodoo Zip is simply much more trustworthy and this son of City Zip has been effective sprinting in the past.  He has the early foot to stay within range early while ‘Chocolate is a candidate to lose contact with this bunch.

RACE 11: 12-6-10-1

#12 SANDRO THE GREAT has been in need of one opportunity in the maiden claiming ranks on the turf.  He’s going to get it here after failing on the dirt last time out.  There have to be some concerns about whether he can even run anymore, but his best turf races tower over this bunch and he should be a square price.

BELMONT FALL STATS: 133-33-21-18    $278.10 ($2.09)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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