Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Sunday, July 4, 2021

BELMONT – 7/4/21

RACE 1: 4-3-2

#4 TRUE CASTLE goes first off a claim by Michelle Giangiulio after finishing a game 4th racing on the wrong part of the track last time out.  This mare has tactical speed and should be within range from the start.  The only negative is you’ll have to take a short price on an Irad Ortiz, Jr. mount.

RACE 2: 6-7-2

#6 HOMBRE lost all chance at the start in his debut and wound up making a minor late move.  He should benefit from having that race behind him and figures to be more involved in the pace with a cleaner break from the gate.  You’ll get some value here as well.

RACE 3: 13-1-9-12

Given her performance two back on the dirt, #13 NOT A TRACE is the one to beat now that this race has been taken off the turf.  She has good speed and figures to be within range from the outset.  If she duplicates that May 31 performance, she is going to be very tough to beat.

RACE 4: 2-6-5

#2 DADDY KNOWS is the one to catch this afternoon for trainer Linda Rice and figures to be a heavy favorite.  He nearly wired the field last time out against weaker and moves up in class today.  If left to his own devices on the front end, he will be very tough to handle.

RACE 5: 1-3-2-7

#1 STRONG POINT drops in for a tag after showing little when last seen on the slop here at Belmont.  This class drop will do her a world of good and you’ll get a fair price here at 9/5.  Her opportunities on fast tracks have been limited and add to her appeal.

RACE 6: 5-4-12

The interesting trainer change on #5 POINT OF HUMOR makes him a good bet today.  New to the care of Kelly Breen, this son of Point of Entry was last seen in 2020 at Saratoga.  He is a new gelding and has run numerous races that would make him competitive in here.

RACE 7: 9-1/1A-6-4

#9 BLUE PAYNT is back on short rest after setting the pace and weakening late in her last start.  She may prove better suited to sprinting and faces a weaker field this afternoon than she did last time out.  Look for her to stalk and pounce today from a cozy outside post.

RACE 8: 4-7-1-2

#4 FIYA is the one to catch returning off a break following a poor effort on Kentucky Oaks day at Churchill Downs.  He has shown tremendous ability prior on the turf and figures to be impossible to beat if he runs back to some of his better races.  Whether his best days are past him is the concern.

RACE 9: 2-5-4-1

#2 PUBLIC SECTOR was an eye-opening winner last time out because of the increased early foot he showed.  He should be a bit farther off the pace this afternoon and can save ground from the inside post position under Flavien Prat.  He still has upside and should be tough to handle today.

RACE 10: 5-1-3-2

There could be a chance for a slight upset here with #5 WICKED TRICK, who tried to rally wide in the True North before flattening out.  He is an off the pace runner who’ll get the help he needs early here as long as #3 AMERICAN POWER pushes the likely heavy favorite #1 FIRENZE FIRE.  Seek value in this spot.























































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