Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Sunday, May 1, 2022

BELMONT – 5/1/22

RACE 1: 1-2-5-3

#1 CURLIN’S WISDOM received a silly ride last time out losing position along the rail before re-rallying while staying inside the majority of the way.  The rail was not the place to be that afternoon and this son of Curlin endured much of his trip on the inside.  He should improve on the jockey switch, and the barn change is hardly problematic.

RACE 2: 4-3-2-5

#4 BAR FOURTEEN is the one to catch under Joel Rosario here shortening up in distance from an 11 furlong heat on the Aqueduct main track.  Turf had generally been the best surface for this son of Gemologist prior to his handy score at the Big A on March 11.  He should control the pace in here and the 8.5f trip on the inner turf plays well for speed.

RACE 3: 6-1-3-5

The surface switch for #6 ACTUARY is interesting, given that he has proven to be equally adept on the dirt.  His 4thplace finish two back was better than it looks on paper given that he spent the majority of that race on the inside.  There’s enough pace to set up his late bid and you’ll get a square price here as well.

RACE 4: 2-8-5-10

Trainer Chad Brown has two in this field and #2 CONTEMPORARY ART is going to be the bigger price of the two.  This filly is very well bred given that progeny of Dubawi hit at a 24% clip on debut.  The dam here was a turf stakes winner and her dam was Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf runner-up and multiple GI winner Misty for Me.

RACE 5: 9-2-7-3

It’s no surprise that a layoff followed the last outing for #9 SLICKED BACK, who ran one of his worst races to date.  He is now back off the bench in a spot where he can stalk the pace and get the jump on the majority of the late runners.  The effort two back at 12 panels from this gelding was sensational, and a return to it would make him very interesting.

RACE 6: 4-7-6-2

#4 KERIK should get some pace to run at here and hails from the red-hot barn of Orlando Noda.  He is 3-3 at this young meet and this filly comes in off a distant third-place finish in a race where she was pace compromised.  The best races this gal has run have come when she’s been able to settle and make one run with some tempo to chase late.  That’s likely the case this afternoon.

RACE 7: 3-2-1/1A-5

#3 ANEJO scored an upset win at 11-1 on a card at Saratoga where a Pick 6 carryover garnered a great deal of attention.  This son of Freud followed that up with a poor effort in the Albany when he chased wide on a day where the inside was particularly strong.  This is his second start off the bench and trainer Jack Sisterson of 18% with horses going from synthetic surfaces to dirt, good for a $3.81 ROI.  He should get an ideal stalk and pounce trip today.

RACE 5: 3-2-4-1

#3 MISS J MCKAY ran into serious early trouble in her last turf start back at Gulfstream.  She was a stake winner earlier in the “championship” meet and should appreciate returning to the 6 furlong trip that she won over in November at Aqueduct.  Her ability to get the jump on the deeper closers like #2 TOO SEXY is noteworthy.

RACE 5: 10-4-2-1

Trainer Chad Brown picked up a Grade I for Competitionofideas in the American Oaks at Santa Anita a few years ago and now has her brother in #10 DEVIL’S OUTLAW.  He has run 5 times prior overseas and has picked up 4 runner-up finishes.  If he can get over that ‘seconditis’ he’ll be a major player.

BELMONT SPRING-SUMMER STATS: 18-4-4-3 $34.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Further reading

Cross Country Pick 5 5.28.2022

Cross Country Pick 5 5.28.2022

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