Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Sunday, November 7, 2021

BELMONT PARK – 11/7/21

RACE 1: 7-2-4-9

#7 LONGRIDGE FELL is a second time starter who debuted in a productive MSW event last month that yielded next out stakes winner Mischievous Kiss.  The pace in that race was exceptionally slow and that worked against this daughter of Ribchester.  The experience and extra ground should help her here.

RACE 2: 5-1-2-3

#5 A MO REAY had a tough trip when 3rd in the Frizette behind subsequent BC Juvy Fillies winner Echo Zulu and Tempted winner Gerrymander.  She is back in the maiden ranks and poised to graduate with anything close to her last performance.  A cleaner trip is likely in the offing as well.

RACE 3: 8-2-5-9

The pace in here should setup well for #8 JOURNEYMAN, who was close to a vicious pace last time out against much tougher.  That race came at today’s distance and the pace took its toll by the late stages.  He is likely to get clear today 2nd off the claim by Tom Morley with an aggressive pilot in the irons.

RACE 4: 1-6-4-7

#1 ORGLANDES was a strong second in the Waya last month, a race that produced Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf runner-up My Sister Nat.  This daughter of Le Havre is a late runner whose job was made tougher by a poor break from the gate last time out and a slow pace.  Things should work out better in here against softer competition with a pace expected.

RACE 5: 5-2-4-6

#5 AUTHORIZE is a firster by Curlin, whose progeny win at an 11% clip on debut, and is out of a dam who won 2x as a 2YO including the Pocahontas.  The worktab here is strong and this barn scored with a firster in Saturday’s opener.  The distance figures to suit him well given the pedigree.

RACE 6: 1-7-8-2

#1 SPLIT THEN DOUBLE had had multiple chances to break her maiden but looks to be better than these horses.  She was pace compromised last time out when 3rd at 6 furlongs but is better suited to a distance of ground and should be in position to save ground from the start this afternoon.

RACE 7: 4-6-8-5

The speed of the race is #4 DADDY KNOWS, who will be clear of this bunch first off the claim by Linda Rice.  He was taken for 20k and immediately moves up to the 25k level for a barn that is having a tremendous meet.  His 0-7 record at Belmont is merely situational, as he is spotted where he should win today.

RACE 8: 1-4-9-12

#1 BUY LAND AND SEE goes 2nd off a layoff for trainer Cairo Prince after getting a poor ride last time out in the Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational.  He will race with blinkers off today and will be treated with Lasix again facing weaker foes.  The extra ground suits him well and he should be more involved early in this affair.

RACE 9: 2-1-3-4

#2 JUDGE DAVIS is the one to beat here given the expected pace scenario.  Every runner in this field broke his maiden sprinting and that should ensure a very strong early gallop.  This son of Distorted Humor improved stretching out in distance and has serious upside for a barn that rarely pressures its youngsters.

RACE 9: 1-5-11-9

#1 FLIP THE SCRIPT was close to a hot pace that basically fell apart last time out and now looms the controlling speed from the inside with blinkers going on.  He has improved since moving to the turf and can get clear of this field if Dylan Davis so chooses.  You’ll get value here as well given the connections.

BELMONT FALL STATS: 277-67-38-33                   $525.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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