Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Sunday, October 10, 2021

BELMONT PARK – 10/10/21

RACE 1: 1A-8-6-4

#1A PAYBACK PERIOD is an Irish-bred firster by Dubawi who looks to continue a trend of internationally bred runners that have excelled for these connections.  He appears to be training well, specifically over the turf, and this one needn’t be much to contend for top honors in here.

RACE 2: 3-6-5-1

#3 ILLUMINATO is a new gelding at 2nd asking after showing speed and fading late on debut.  Having that race behind him will help the chances of this son of Liam’s Map, who figures to be a solid favorite.  This trainer and jockey have turned into a useful partnership.

RACE 3: 6-4-5-3

The time away since being claimed should help #4 ARISTOCRATIC, who is clearly the one to catch in this field.  He has ample early speed and understandably faltered in the hands of poor connections earlier in 2021.  This is a good new barn and a horse with an appealing style.

RACE 4: 2-8-9-5

No trainer can turn a simple turf router into a marathoner like Mike Maker and he took #2 ONENIGHTSTANDARDSfor 80k last time out at Belmont with intent.  This colt ends up here and was a competitive 3rd two starts back going 11 panels at Del Mar.  He has the tactical speed to stay close and oodles of upside.

RACE 5: 5-1-8-3

#5 CHI TOWN LADY and her stablemate, #8 POPPY FLOWER, scratched from yesterday’s Matron, which was a considerably softer event than this colt version for the same division.  She has excellent tactical speed and was a smashing winner of the Bolton Landing despite all kinds of trouble in her last start.  Any improvement would make her impossible to beat.

RACE 6: 4-8-7-5

#4 HOROLOGIST is the one to catch in her bid to score a second straight Beldame.  She was an impressive winner of the Summer Colony when last seen racing over a wet surface.  There’s other potential speed in this field, but none that can keep up with this gal on her best day.

RACE 7: 4-5-8-2

#4 PHOEBE’S FROSTY is by Frost Giant, a 7% debut sire, and the dam here was a 6x winner.  The worktab is strong and this barn has had success with first timers on multiple different circuits.  This is a field of questionable talent so why not try a firster?

RACE 8: 8-4-9-2

#8 EN WYE CEE endured a brutal trip last time out and wound up coming up short.  He can be more involved in the pace today, just as he was in this very race a year ago.  If he can get command, that makes him a major player.  Whether he can handle the tougher competition is the real concern.

RACE 9: 8-1-5-4

#8 BAIL OUT narrowly missed last time out against similar foes and is the most trustworthy runner that will be a square price.  He has excellent tactical speed and has to overcome the issues with winning races.  Perhaps start #25 will be the charm!

BELMONT FALL STATS: 133-33-21-18    $278.10 ($2.09)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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