Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Sunday, October 17, 2021

BELMONT PARK – 10/17/21

RACE 1: 3-5-2

#3 PAY GRADE is strictly the one to beat on a class drop off of a serious effort last time out in the Fleet Indian.  A rider upgrade will also help her cause against four overmatched rivals.

RACE 2: 5-2-3-11

#5 CONSTITUTIONALRAGE cuts back in distance off an effort that is better than it looks on paper.  She showed big speed that afternoon before fading in the late stages.  The cutback in distance will help as well.

RACE 3: 7-2-3

The debut effort for #7 FORCED RANKING was solid enough to consider him a big favorite in here.  He draws favorably on the outside and should be within range of the pace from the outset.

RACE 4: 5-1-4-8

The Pick 6 kicks off with a good opportunity for #5 GOOD CULTURE off the claim for Linda Rice.  She is 22% with dirt routers off of claims, good for a $2.09 ROI over the last 5 years.  Look for him in the late stages of this affair.

RACE 5: 7-4-3-8

#7 DEVIL OR ANGEL ran a terrific race on debut and came back with an effort that was hurt by a passive ride.  The blinkers are going on here and that should sharpen her up in the opening stages.

RACE 6: 9-1-5-7

#9 GRAPE NUTS WARRIOR is a late runner who was compromised by a moderate pace last time out.  There’s pace aplenty in this field and that should setup her late run quite nicely.  Trainer Chad Brown is 41% over the last 2 weeks at Belmont, good for a $4.36 ROI.

RACE 7: 8-3-1

#8 JUST RIGHT gets serious class relief off a try against considerably tougher foes.  He fits well at this level given his efforts two and three back.  The outside post will enable him to stalk and pounce as well.

RACE 8: 7-6-8-9

#7 TOO SEXY stepped forward with a huge effort last time out and now tries stakes company.  She clearly appreciated some give in the ground and should get the right trip sitting just off what figures to be a solid pace.

RACE 9: 11-7-12-8

#11 LILAC GIRL ran a bang-up race on debut and should improve at second asking.  She had a good trip in her debut and also gets another furlong to work with in this affair.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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