Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Sunday, October 3, 2021

BELMONT PARK – 10/3/21

RACE 1: 4-1-5-3

#4 HONEY CAKE pulled on the lead in the Nassau in Canada when she made her North American debut on July 24.  She will appreciate the cutback in distance and can use her speed to procure a cozy spot in the opening stages.  Look for her to be prominent throughout.

RACE 2: 1-9-8-2

The inside post and drop in class make #1 FREEDOMOFTHEPRESS very tough to beat in here.  She should be in position from the start and there’s more than enough speed signed on to ensure a fair setup.  The best races this filly has run are significantly better than anything her rivals have ever put forth.

RACE 3: 2-5-7-4

#2 FENWAY goes second off a layoff for trainer Bob Baffert and figures to get command of this race right from the outset.  He didn’t pick up the wet track last time out behind repeat winner Gold Panda and should take a step forward 2nd off a 150+ day break.

RACE 4: 1-3-4

#1 PORTFOLIO COMPANY was compromised by a slow pace last time out in the With Anticipation and must be ridden more aggressively early here.  He was close to the pace on debut when he outlasted a fast-closing rival and now draws a favorable inside post going this 8.5f trip.  There’s no reason this horse should be the second choice to #3 ANNAPOLIS, who drew rave reviews for a facile maiden victory.

RACE 5: 2-3-9-7

#2 TOMMY BEE endured pretty significant trouble last time out around the turn and into the stretch.  This son of Medaglia d’Oro got into traffic trouble and lost position before being steadied.  The blinkers going on should sharpen her up early, and the drop in class figures to make her a good fit.

RACE 6: 2-7-3-5

Though he’s been moving up and down the class ladder, #2 DARK STORM is a good fit here given the expected pace.  He woke up last time out when 2nd against lesser, and now moves up in class off the claim.  Of all the options in the race, this was the most tolerable.

RACE 7: 6-8-2-4

#6 PRINCESS FAWZIA looks a lot faster than her rivals in this field.  She drops in class after facing nothing but starter and straight allowance company since a maiden win two years ago.  This filly has the speed to stay close early and figures to be a major pace factor in her 2nd start off the bench.  The runner-up from her last start won a N1X by a city block here on Friday.

RACE 8: 7-6-2-1

#7 MY SISTER NAT is a late runner who is always at the mercy of the pace, but she ran two bang-up races at Saratoga behind BC Filly and Mare Sprint contender War Like Goddess.  She goes 3rd off a short layoff here and undoubtedly gets some class relief after mainly Grade I and Grade I starts since her last win – in the Waya.

RACE 9: 6-8-2-9

As much as you might want to try to beat #6 ECHO ZULU given the stretchout and abundance of speed in here, she is simply better than these horses by a substantial margin.  She can sit off another speed horse if necessary early, or can grab command and go on with it herself.  Her speed figures are significantly higher than any of her rivals as well.

RACE 10: 1-7-6-5

#1 POWER UP PAYNTER has caught a run of wet tracks on dirt of late and clearly prefers a dryer strip.  There’s enough pace to set up his late bid here, and you’re going to get a very attractive price.  The inside post is the only negative, but the value to be had here makes it more tolerable.

BELMONT FALL STATS: 94-24-15-13   $237.80 ($2.26)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Further reading