Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Thursday, April 29

BELMONT – 4/29/2021

RACE 1: 5-8-4

The recent turf form of #5 HOLY EMPEROR simply looks too good for his rivals here as he gets some class relief for Robby Falcone, Jr.  This barn has a win at this meet for today’s owner and this runner lures the circuit’s top pilot.

RACE 2: 3-4-2

#3 BIG BOY MO takes an enormous drop in class after a troubled voyage against much tougher when last seen 4 weeks ago.  He fits nicely at this class level and will appreciate the return to a dry surface.  The pace scenario in here also figures to work in his favor.

RACE 3: 5-3-2

#5 L’INDISCRET drops in for a tag for trainer Barclay Tagg and has been in need of some class relief.  She has a versatile running style and can stay close enough to avoid having to overcome a major deficit late.  Her best turf races would almost certainly win this event.

RACE 4: 1-3-8-7

The Pick 6 with a carryover starts here and #1 MISS MI MI is the one to beat.  She’s taking a massive class drop, gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. and should enjoy a cozy stalking trip from the inside.  Trainer Mike Miceli is 23% with claimers on dirt cutting back in distance, good for a $2.33 ROI and is 4 for his last 9 with those types.

RACE 5: 3-6-5

#3 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS hinted at having serious potential as a 2YO, breaking her maiden impressively after a troubled debut where she should have won.  This is a great spot to get her 3YO season started and she looks like a reliable single.

RACE 6: 4-3-8

#4 MYSTERY MESSENGER is new to the NY circuit and enters in strong form for veteran Vladimir Cerin.  He has the perfect pace stalking style and should be in an ideal spot from the start.  This is a competitive affair, and you’ll probably want to go deep in this leg.

RACE 7: 4-1A-3

#4 HOMETOWN enters off a smashing maiden win last month at Aqueduct and bids to make it 2-2 since joining the care of Chad Brown.  He has good speed, can handle this distance, and Brown is 6 for his last 9 with dirt routers coming off of maiden wins ($1.70 ROI).

RACE 8: 5-2-4

#3 MR. ALEC is the one to beat as he returns from a layoff for trainer Christophe Clement.  This son of Mr. Sidney performed well in 2020 and nearly cleared this condition when last seen.  He can set the pace if there are no rivals committed to the front end, or can rate in the opening stages and pounce when ready. That versatility makes him a reliable favorite.

RACE 9: 6-3-5-8

Spread as much as you can in a wide-open nightcap where #6 KNOCKOUT PUNCH looks like value at or around his morning line price of 8-1.  He is a late runner who ran out of condition last year when he twice faced winners on turf as a maiden.  The pace should set up well for this gelding and he still has upside.

BELMONT STATS: 35-9-7-2   $35.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Further reading