Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Thursday, May 5, 2022

BELMONT – 5/5/22

RACE 1: 1-2-7-3

It is tough to take a big position against #1 NOVA LOVES A FIGHT given the way this barn has been going to start the meet (4-5 with one second).  This son of Boys at Tosconova narrowly missed last time out and only did so because he made an early move into a hot pace.  Any improvement would make him very tough to handle.

RACE 2: 6-1-4-2

#6 LIFE CHANGER is back in NY after a winter in Tampa.  He ran well in his first start of 2022 then faltered last time out when too close to a hot pace.  This is a good spot class-wise and trainer John Terranova is 21% with dirt starters racing for tags for the first time ($2.05 ROI).  The early pace he possesses is a weapon given the way this event looks on paper.

RACE 3: 6-4-8-1

In a tremendously interesting race with a dearth of speed, #6 SIFTING SANDS figures to be in an ideal spot stalking the pace.  He got good quickly last summer at Saratoga and now bids to get back to some of his best races.  He’ll get lasix today for trainer Chad Brown, who is 33% with turfers off of 100-200 day breaks over the last five years ($2.28 ROI).

RACE 4: 1-2-6-3

#1 TRUEBELIEVE is clearly the one to beat off 3 straight runner-up finishes at the Big A.  He was inside last time out on a day when being off the rail was likely an advantage.  It would behoove apprentice Jose Gomez to ask this 5YO for speed from the gate to establish the pace in a race with little to none of it.

RACE 5: 1-6-9-7

After entertaining virtually every alternative you cannot help but come back to #1 LANDBISCUIT.  He is dropping in class and should get a strong pace to run at late today.  His best turf races are clearly better than those of any of his rivals, and he looms a very short priced favorite.

RACE 6: 5-2-4-3

The experienced runners are hardly invincible, so #5 SHREVEPORT gets the nod as a firster by Tapit.  Progeny of Tapit score on debut at a 13% clip and the dam here was a multiple Grade I winner who has produced graded stake winners Marking and Lake Avenue.  The latter of those two began her career auspiciously for this barn and the worktab here looks solid.

RACE 7: 8-10-7-5

Though it was in his second start for Dave Donk, this barn scored with a former runner of Phil Gleaves last month and #8 YES AND YES looks similar.  This son of Sidney’s Candy was a solid turf performer before going to the sidelines and he now returns off a layoff.  Donk is 13% with turfers off 180+ day breaks, good for a $3.30 ROI.

RACE 8: 4-5-1-2

Despite the upstart types drawn inside who will take money, the ‘hot hand’ is #4 WITCH HUNTER, an impressive winner of two straight who is poised to return to the NY bred ranks here.  She is versatile stylistically and can handle the added ground without issue.  Look for Dylan Davis to keep her prominent from the outset.

RACE 9: 3-10-12-5

There’s a strong argument to be made that #3 NAPOLEONIC WAR should have won the Transylvania last time out.  He now drops in class to face N1X company and looks like a total cinch on paper.  There’s no chance he’s as high as 3-1 in this field and a cleaner trip will make him impossible to beat.  He had trouble on multiple occasions last time out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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