Nick Tammaro’s Belmont Analysis – Thursday, October 28, 2021

BELMONT PARK – 10/28/21

RACE 1: 4-2-3-6

Let’s try a price in the Thursday opener as #4 COVER PHOTO gets a slight rider upgrade after a series of trips where she raced on the wrong part of the surface.  She has races going back to earlier in 2021 that make her competitive here and her low percentage trainer has a win at the meet.  The favorites here look wholly unappealing.

RACE 2: 3-13-4-10

Given the three races she ran earlier in her career on dirt, #3 EXFILTRATION is the one to beat here.  She will add blinkers following two improved turf tries and should be in position just off the pace.  Trainer Horacio DePaz has amassed solid numbers in 2021.

RACE 3: 3-1/1A-6-5

Even though she got a kind setup last time out, #3 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE is a player right back for new trainer Gustavo Rodriguez.  It was his brother that used to condition this daughter of Cairo Prince, and she was at her best in his care.  The pace should be there for her in the late stages, and she will offer some value at the windows in a competitive tilt.

RACE 4: 13-14-15-1A

The talent in here on the surface switch is undoubtedly on the AE list as #13 RAYMOND ROAD makes her second start after debuting in a stake race at Finger Lakes.  She ran credibly against considerably tougher competition and now drops in class.  This is the right spot for her with a good outside post, so look for stalk and pounce tactics to be employed.

RACE 5: 1A-5-2B-6

#1A GLORY ROAD faced much tougher last time out for trainer Rob Atras first off a claim and now drops in class.  The runner-up from that heat has since returned to win, and these conditioned claimers are an entirely different breed in comparison.  There should be enough pace to set up his late bid, thanks in large part to his entrymate, #1 STRIKING SPEED.

RACE 6: 9-4-11-3

What exactly we’ll get from the 10 lb. bug assigned to ride #9 TOP GUN TOMMY is unknown.  He is clearly the one to beat on dirt with Kelly Breen adding blinkers to keep him on task late.  He was given a horrible ride last time out, wrangled back off the pace after breaking quickly and ended up coming up short of a wire-to-wire winner.  Look for him to be within range when the running starts here.

 

RACE 7: 1-10-9-6

It should be as simple as #1 BIG BOBBY being better than these horses.  He has run well twice against winners since breaking his maiden impressively on Memorial Day, the most recent of which came at 2-1 at Saratoga.  He has the tactical speed to stay within range early, and there are no runners like Judge N Jury or Gold Panda in here.

RACE 8: 15-14-13

#15 DUST DEVIL goes 2nd off a layoff and switches surfaces for trainer Bill Mott.  He was ineffective on turf last time out, but that’s because he’s a dirt horse.  The surface switch will help and there will be little talent in this field on the main track.

RACE 9: 7-9-10-6

#7 BLITZ TO WIN was supposed to win last time out and wound up 2nd after making a big move on the inside.  He is really supposed to win here given the quality of this field and he should get some pace to run at late.  He’s continued to train forwardly, which should only increase your confidence.

BELMONT FALL STATS: 218-49-36-26             $396.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Further reading